Hail in Nebraska, April 14, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
635 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this week,
  particularly tonight and Friday.

- Thursday will be a drying day as a ridge moves in between
  systems.

- Possible temperature impacts are expected for those with
  agricultural interests heading into the weekend. Expected lows
  Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Today and Tonight...

A warm front bisected the region today, from Friend, NE, to Lincoln,
Omaha, and over into Harlan, IA. North of the front, a pesky cloud
deck of low clouds developed, helping maintain temperatures in the
low to mid 70s. South of the front, gusty southwest winds brought
warmer temperatures into the low to mid 80s. The winds also brought
plenty of dry air, with minimum relative humidities falling to 20-30
percent across far southeast Nebraska. The combination of warm
temps, dry air, and gusty winds led to Very High to Extreme fire
danger across parts of southeast Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning, will
remain in effect for Jefferson and Saline counties, where conditions
are worst, until 9 PM tonight.

The good news is, moisture is expected to surge back north into the
forecast area tonight. The bad news is, this could increase our risk
for a few strong to severe storms developing across far southeast
Nebraska. However, the other good news is latest CAM runs have
pushed the best chance for storm development just southeast of the
forecast area, into northern parts of Kansas and Missouri. If storms
do manage to develop over southeast Nebraska tonight, they will have
a lot of dry air to contend with throughout the column, which could
hinder their growth. If storms do manage to win out against the
entrainment of dry air, steep lapse rates, and strong unidirectional
shear could allow storms to become severe.  Large hail and damaging
wind gusts appear to be the main concerns with any storms that are
able to develop. The severe potential may linger into the early
morning hours.

Wednesday and Thursday...

The low associated with the previously mentioned warm front will
move northeast into north-central Kansas/southeast Nebraska
Wednesday morning, brining additional chances for showers and storms
through the region. The low is expected to lift slightly to the
north on Wednesday, bringing some wrap around moisture to northern
Nebraska. PoPs will decrease southwest to northeast heading into the
evening hours as the low exits. A few isolated strong to severe
storms may develop as the low moves out late Wednesday
afternoon/evening.

Thursday is still expected to remain dry as a ridge moves across the
region. After the brief cool down (highs in the 70s) on Wednesday,
warm air advects into the region. Expect widespread 80s for highs
Thursday afternoon.

Friday and Beyond...

Friday will be a day to watch as we get closer to the end of the
week. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies with an
attendant cold front moving into the region. An upper level trough
over the Four Corners region will lift to the northeast into the
area by Friday night. The cold front will be ushering in much cooler
air with WAA and moisture advection ahead of it. There is still
uncertainty in where the cold front reaches and the timing of
everything. Strong to severe storms with this set up are expected,
with all hazards possible. There is still considerable uncertainty
in some of the forecast details for this period, so continue to
monitor the forecast for potential changes.

Cooler air will push in behind the front for the upcoming weekend.
Saturday morning lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s over
north of a line from Columbus, NE to Onawa, IA. Lows will fall to
the mid and upper 30s across the rest of eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa. Those with agricultural interests will want to keep an
eye on temperatures. Highs will struggle into the 50s for much of
the area. A few locations will not make it into the 50s. Saturday
night/Sunday morning will be cold once again with lows ranging from
the mid-20s to the mid-30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

KOFK: VFR conditions persist at the terminal this evening.
Expect the possibility for a few showers and maybe an isolated
storm after 05Z. Additional chances for showers/storms will be
possible Wednesday morning. Winds will remain out of the north
or northwest through the TAF period.

KOMA: VFR conditions continue for now at the terminal. West
winds will shift to the north over the next couple of hours.
Thunderstorm chances will increase after 02Z, continuing
overnight. Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR levels by
daybreak, persisting through much of the morning before
improving in the afternoon. Although not included in the TAF at
this time, there is a small chance of a few thunderstorms
coming into the vicinity of the terminal after 19Z Wednesday.
There is still some uncertainty in where specifically they will
develop and if it will impact the terminal directly.

KLNK: VFR conditions persist through the evening. Winds are
going to be shifting shortly at the terminal as an outflow
boundary moves in from the north. Thunderstorms have developed
west of the area, from west of KEAR to near KOLU. These storms
will move to the northwest with additional storms firing up
along a warm front. There is potential that a few of these
storms do make it into the vicinity of KLNK, so a mention was
added into prevailing conditions. For the rest of the forecast
period, ceilings fall to MVFR levels. There is an additional
chance of some showers or storms impacting the terminal after
18Z; however, due to TAF length, complexity, and still some
uncertainty of where these showers/storms develop, the mention
of them was omitted from prevailing conditions for now.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ078-088.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...ANW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
959 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-160300-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-
Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-Stanton-
Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-
Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-
Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
959 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, east central Nebraska, northeast Nebraska and southeast
Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe storms remain possible evening into tonight, mainly
east of a line from Fairbury,NE, to Fremont, NE, to Woodbine, IA.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. A second
round of storms will be possible Wednesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Shower and storm chances continue Wednesday and Friday. Severe
storms will be possible at times, especially across southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa Friday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times this week, particularly
Tuesday night and Friday.