Stronger zonal flow and a cold front moving across the region late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning combined to mix stronger winds to the surface across much of the region.
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The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.
Stronger zonal flow and a cold front moving across the region late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning combined to mix stronger winds to the surface across much of the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 25, 12:12 AM MST, 3 hours 28 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1212 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will bring convective snow showers and/or snow squalls to Southwest MT Wednesday morning. - Strong winds develop along the Rocky Mountain Front, Central MT, and Southwest MT Wednesday. - The strongest winds develop Thursday through Friday, spreading farther out across the North-Central MT plains. - Another cold front passage Friday and Saturday will drop temperatures down closer to average, and bring light snow. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: This zonal flow pattern aloft will dominate the region over the next few days. A cold front will expand snowfall off of the Continental Divide to farther east across Central MT overnight. This front is expected to push southwards throughout the morning. This front will produce convective snow showers, which will bring quick bursts of moderate to heavy snow. With marginal temperatures, snow will likely struggle to accumulate at lower elevations. However, if there is a heavy snow shower, than light slushy accumulations on pavements will be possible. So far the snow squall threat is isolated, with better chances being in the Southwest MT mountain passes. Most of the snow will fall along the frontal passage, with light snow lingering for a little bit behind the front. While this is happening, the mid level jet begins to pick up across the region. The cold front with accompanying snow showers will help mix down these stronger winds to the surface. Behind the front, a strong pressure gradient develops along the Rocky Mountain Front through Central/Southwest MT. This will keep the threat of strong winds through the day Wednesday. Peak winds are expected to move in Thursday as the mid level jet strengthens and spreads farther east across the North-Central MT plains. The strongest winds will die down early Friday morning, but will still remain gusty through at least the morning hours. During the day Friday, a Canadian Cold Front will drop south into the Hi-line region, bringing in colder air and light snow. There remains a little uncertainty in how far south that front makes it into the North-Central MT plains, but ensembles hint at at least temperatures dropping to near average behind the front. For the beginning of next week, northwest flow aloft will be persistent. However, there doesn't look to be much disturbances aloft, so it will be drier for the start of next week. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Winds Wednesday Through Friday: The mid level jet will start to pick up during Wednesday morning. This jet doesn't look overly too impressive as it only peaks to 65-75kts at times. However, the cold front passage Wednesday combined with convective snow showers should help mix down these stronger winds to the surface across Southwest Montana. Further north along the Rocky Mountain Front and Central MT, a strong pressure gradient developing and peak daytime mixing should help with getting these strong winds to the surface. The synoptic set up still gives good confidence for strong winds Wednesday, so the current High Wind Warning remains on track. Heading into Thursday, the 700mb winds pick up even more to ~85kts at times along the Rocky Mountain Front. This will bring the period of strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front Thursday. High res guidance still show that an excess of 90-100mph wind gusts will be possible close to the immediate eastern slopes. The best window for those peak speeds will be in the afternoon and evening, where deep daytime vertical mixing will be the strongest. Strong mountain wave activity will be possible as well. Everywhere across the plains, the 700mb winds expand farther east across North-Central MT. Strong winds remain likely, with the best window for more widespread winds will be Thursday afternoon and evening. Although the best time frame will be Thursday for strong winds, that persistent strong 700mb jet will keep the threat for strong winds through Friday morning. With the Canadian cold front beginning to move south into the Hi-line Friday morning, high winds up there may be cut off early. Still with a bit of uncertainty in the end end timing Friday morning, I've opted to extend the end time through 11am Friday. One area where the wind dynamics did not lead to high confidence is Hill County, so they were left out of the High Wind Warning upgrade for Thursday. Snow Across Central and Southwest MT Wednesday Morning: Good orographic lift in the evening has lead to a few inches of snow accumulations to already develop on Rogers, MacDonald, and Flesher Pass. To account for additional snow accumulations due to the cold front passage early this morning, a Winter Weather Advisory was issued earlier in the evening. The cold front has started to start to develop snow bands/showers farther east across lower elevations. This cold front will begin to push south early Wednesday morning across Central and Southwest MT. A few convective snow bands/showers and or snow squalls will develop along the front. Best chances for this will be along the mountain passes. The Boulder Hill/Elk Park area was also added to the Winter Weather Advisory due to better chances for steadier snowfall along the front to accumulate a few inches over a few hours. I can't rule out an isolated heavy snow shower/snow squall across the lower elevations during the morning. However, wet bulb temperatures struggle to get to freezing, which will make it more difficult to get snow to accumulate. Expect winter driving conditions for the morning commute, especially along mountain passes and the I-90 corridor. -Wilson && .AVIATION... 25/06Z TAF Period Areas of precipitation and mountain obscuration through the overnight period are mainly expected along and south of a line from roughly KHLN to KLWT with primarily VFR conditions to the north of this line. Low-VFR/MVFR cloud ceilings will persist through Wednesday morning across southwest MT terminals with some potential for brief IFR CIGS/VIS at KEKS and KBZN between 10-14z when there is a risk for convectively enhanced snow showers with gusty winds. In addition to the gusty winds with snow showers across SW MT Wednesday morning, gusty/strong westerly surface winds develop by Wednesday afternoon across much of north- central/central MT. Mountain wave turbulence and local instances of low level wind shear developing under the strong mid level westerly flow Wednesday afternoon are expected to persist through Thursday. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 48 34 50 36 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 43 29 45 27 / 0 0 0 10 HLN 46 27 51 31 / 30 0 0 0 BZN 49 23 52 27 / 60 0 0 0 WYS 40 11 35 15 / 80 10 0 0 DLN 46 23 48 27 / 50 0 0 0 HVR 48 27 52 26 / 0 0 0 10 LWT 45 28 49 32 / 10 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area-Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gallatin Valley-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap- Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Madison River Valley-Meagher County Valleys-Missouri Headwaters-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass. High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 11 AM MST Friday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Eastern Toole and Liberty-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley- Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Northern Blaine County-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass-Western and Central Chouteau County. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass. && http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Great Falls MT 330 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026 MTZ320>324-326>328-251400- Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Meagher County Valleys- Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area- Missouri Headwaters-Gallatin Valley-Northwest Beaverhead County- Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft- Including the cities of Trident, Maudlow, Battle Ridge Pass, Bozeman Pass, Deep Creek Pass, Martinsdale, Checkerboard, Ringling, White Sulphur Springs, Montana City, Clancy, Boulder, Corbin, Wickes, Elk Park Pass, Homestake Pass, Toston, Townsend, Winston, Harrison, Three Forks, Willow Creek, Pony, Whitehall, Bozeman, Gallatin Gateway, Dewey, Wisdom, Wise River, Big Hole Pass, Chief Joseph Pass, Bannack, Dillon, Glen, and Waterloo 330 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026 ...Bands of snow showers moving through Southwest Montana early this morning... At 330 AM MST...radar showed showers increasing in coverage across southwest Montana in association with an advancing frontal system. Temperatures are near freezing below 5000 ft where precipitation is mixed but cooling this morning will result in a transition to mostly snow as these showers track across southwest Montana through 7 AM MST. Snow showers will affect areas as far south as Dillon and along the I-90 corridor to Bozeman and Bozeman pass by 6 AM MST. Snow accumulation at elevations below 5000 ft will be minimal, but travelers should expect changing visibility and road conditions in areas affected by these showers. In addition, locally gusty winds near these showers may produce additional visibility reduction.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
10 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Montana mesonet station Dog Gun Lake E measured sustained wind in excess of 50 mph for just over 6 hours, and had a peak gust of 78 mph.
Mesonet stations DELMT Dellwo and SALMT Salmond Ranch both measured gusts in excess of 58 mph, including a peak gust of 64 mph at Dellwo.
Mesonet station MTMDP MacDonald Pass (MT DOT) measured a 62 mph gust early in the morning.
Montana mesonet station Mission Lake S measured sustained winds averaging 40 mph for 4.5 hours, in addition to measuring a peak gust of 64 mph. Additionally, ASOS station KCTB Cut Bank Airport measured sustained winds of 42 mph between 110 PM and 315 PM local time on top of a peak gust of 63 mph.
ASOS station KDLN Dillon Airport measured a 64 mph gust.
RAWS station TT838 Battle Ridge measured a 59 mph gust. An additional sensor that was a public weather station measured gusts in excess of 58 mph 9 miles NE of Bozeman.
Mesonet station SNPMT Sunpoint Glacier NP measured two gusts of 58 mph or greater, including a peak gust of 61 mph.
Mesonet station Cascade E MDA measured a 65 mph gust.
Mesonet station MTGYS Geyser (MT DOT) measured a 59 mph gust. A personal weather station nearby also measured a gust in excess of 58 mph.
RAWS station SFJM8 South Fork Judith measured a 60 mph gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, February 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1317075, 1317103, 1317091, 1317077, 1317063, 1317074, 1317078, 1317072, 1317079, 1317081.