A stalled upper level low pressure system resided over the western CONUS during the early morning hours of May 28, with several spokes of upper level energy moving across the Plains. This, in conjunction with a secondary upper level trough over the Great Lakes region and a slow-moving surface low pushing from the Red River into southern Nebraska led to showers and thunderstorms developing within…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
A stalled upper level low pressure system resided over the western CONUS during the early morning hours of May 28, with several spokes of upper level energy moving across the Plains. This, in conjunction with a secondary upper level trough over the Great Lakes region and a slow-moving surface low pushing from the Red River into southern Nebraska led to showers and thunderstorms developing within the deep, moist airmass. As a result, multiple rounds of moderate rainfall fell over the Missouri Ozarks between May 28 and May 29, leading to widespread 3 to 4 inch rainfall accumulations. This heavy rainfall led to flooding of several low water crossings and road closures.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 28, 11:26 AM CST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1226 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon and
evening. Highest rain chances south and west of a Warsaw to
Salem line. Marginal risk for excessive rainfall mainly for
far southwestern Missouri.
- Moderate to high rain chances again Friday into Saturday.
Marginal risk for excessive rainfall and localized flooding
for locations that see repeated rounds of rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026
A stalled upper level low over the western CONUS remained the
focus in the national satellite imagery while showers and storms
moved over the Ozarks region this morning. Several pieces of
upper level energy moving through the upper level flow and
across the Plains, which in conjunction with another upper level
trough across the Great Lakes and a slow northward moving
surface low moving from the Red River into southern Nebraska
through today, will help to produce showers and isolated
thunderstorms in a deep moist airmass.
Low and middle level moisture was continuing to filter into the
region from the gulf, helping to produce the showers. This was
noted on the 00Z SGF sounding with 1.34 in of precipitable water
on the sounding. thanks to the depth of the moisture, cloud
cover through today, along with rain chances will work to keep
temperatures in the 70s for most of the region. Portions of
central Missouri into northern Missouri will be warmer with
temperatures in the lower to middle 80s, where cloud cover may
be less with more sunshine into the afternoon.
With this rather stuck pattern in place the trailing front from
the lifting surface low will be nearly stacked into the middle
levels. This was noted by model depictions along with strong
moisture fetch into the Ozarks from the Gulf. Weak flow with
0-10km winds less than 20kts remain through today out of the
south.
Latest WPC excessive rain outlook continues to impact only the
far southwestern portions of the Ozarks, however, there is good
consensus for scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms through this afternoon into the evening across
southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, especially southwest of
Springfield. CAMS and other short range guidance/models show
localized pockets of 1-2 inches, though where storms occur,
higher amounts may be possible. There was little change in the
rainfall amounts from the previous forecast, and looking at the
rainfall estimates across the region over the past 7 days, some
locations might be prone to localized flooding if a storm were
to move over the area. However, confidence in this is low that
this will occur, or if flooding does occur it will be rather
localized. This is based of the rather patchy nature of the
rainfall total forecast from the models. For now, did not
consider a flood watch based on the limited confidence of
flooding.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026
Little has changes in the expectations for Friday. The surface
low still looks to lift slowly east languishing over Ozarks.
This will allow for additional rounds of showers and storms.
Rainfall amounts from this round remain uncertain as the showery
nature expected will likely produce widely varying rainfall
amounts across the region. With continued high moisture content
in the atmosphere, weak mean flow, localized flooding will be a
concern, especially with additional rainfall expected for
Saturday as the low continues its slow progression east. Rain
chances are lower Saturday than the previous Today or Friday,
but the multi-day nature of the rainfall may be enough to begin
getting more flooding.
Rain chances do begin to taper off slowly Sunday into early
next week before the region transitions into a drier pattern by
Wednesday. This will occur as the upper low out west begins to
lift north into the northern plains. This will bring rising
heights and decreasing rain chances for the area and would
support warming middle level, 850mb temperatures and warmer
surface temperatures for the middle to later portions of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026
Convection will continue through the TAF period, with a surge of
greater coverage and intensity of rainfall this afternoon into
early tonight. Expect flight categories to trend into MVFR and
possible IFR through the period, especially tonight into Friday
morning.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch through Friday morning for MOZ089>092-094>097-
102>105.
&&
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...TitusHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 457 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-291000- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 457 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited lightning risk. Limited excessive rainfall risk DISCUSSION... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon and evening. Highest rain chances south and west of a Warsaw to Salem line. Marginal risk for excessive rainfall mainly for far southwestern Missouri. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. - Moderate to high rain chances Friday and Saturday. Marginal risk for excessive rainfall and localized flooding for locations that see repeated rounds of rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Hatch
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Both the northbound and southbound lanes of Route A were closed due to flooding.
A culvert collapsed from the heavy rainfall on B Highway leading to road closure.
The MO 95 bridge at Bryant Creek was reported to be impassable due to flooding.
The low water crossing by Calebs Creek was reported to be flooded due to the heavy rainfall.
Both the northbound and southbound lanes of MO 125 were closed due to flooding.
Water from heavy rainfall was over the road on State Highway T and Farm Road 75.
Several low water crossings were impassible due to the heavy rainfall.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1336878, 1336867, 1336986, 1336988, 1336982, 1336869, 1336877.