What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 28, 12:17 PM EST, 2 hours 39 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Scattered Thunderstorms this Afternoon and early Evening. Main Area of Concern: I-95 Corridor and the Beaches. Strong gusts around 40 mph, Localized Flooding, and Periods of Lightning
- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Northeast FL Beaches Today
- Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms through Next Week. Widespread 3-5 Rainfall Totals Forecast through next Wednesday, with
- Localized Totals in Excess of 6 Possible. Daily, Marginal Risk of Flooding, especially in Urban and Flood-Prone Areas
Area forecast discussion, May 28, 12:17 PM EST, 2 hours 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
117 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Scattered Thunderstorms this Afternoon and early Evening. Main Area
of Concern: I-95 Corridor and the Beaches. Strong gusts around 40
mph, Localized Flooding, and Periods of Lightning
- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Northeast FL Beaches Today
- Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms through Next Week. Widespread
3-5 Rainfall Totals Forecast through next Wednesday, with
- Localized Totals in Excess of 6 Possible. Daily, Marginal Risk of
Flooding, especially in Urban and Flood-Prone Areas
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening, with a few strong
storms possible
A round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop and move
northeast across the region this afternoon and evening. A few strong
storms will be possible. The coverage of the storms will decrease
late this evening, with a mainly dry night forecast. Lows Tonight
will be above average.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Numerous to widespread thunderstorms each day with potential for
localized flooding, mainly along the I-95 corridor
Southwesterly-westerly flow over the region will bring in tropical
moisture from the Gulf. The Gulf breeze will be the dominant of the
two sea breezes during the period, directing showers/storms to push
across the area from east to west, with sea breeze merges along the
the I-95 corridor and Atlantic coast. The increased moisture will
likely lead to the development of numerous to widespread
showers/storms to develop as periods of heavy downpours are
possible. Localized flooding will be also of concern for any slow-
moving storms or if training of storms develop. Daytime highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday, but come Saturday highs are
expected to remain in the 80s with the increased cloud cover and
showers/storms. Overnight Lows in the 70s across NE FL, with the
upper 60s across SE GA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms Expected to Continue, with
Beneficial Rainfall Totals Forecast Area-Wide.
- Clouds and Cooler Temperatures Expected Early Next Week.
A cold front begins to push into the area during the overnight hours
from Saturday to Sunday, and likely begin to stall over north
central FL Sunday Night, remaining through Monday. Showers and
storms development along the boundary is expected on Sunday as it
pushes through the area. With uncertainty in timing and location of
where the front begins to stall, the forecast continues to call for
numerous to widespread chances of precipitation heading into the
upcoming week. But as mentioned in the previous discussion: Main
concerns will still be heavy rain, especially with potential
training around the frontal boundary as it stalls.
Temperatures will moderate toward the middle part of next week with
temperatures in the low/mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Significant chances for restrictions this afternoon and
evening, as convection increases in coverage and moves through.
Convection will dissipate later this evening. Restrictions in
stratus and fog are forecast for Tonight, and showers may linger
through the night at KSSI. Convection will initiate during the
late morning hours on Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to move away to the southeast Today, as
high pressure builds to the northwest.
A frontal system will be near or over the area from Friday through
the middle of next week. Due to the proximity of this front, rounds
of showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Rip Currents: SE GA: Low Today, Moderate Friday
NE FL: Moderate Today, Low Friday
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Southwesterly winds through the end of the week and into the weekend
will allow for the Gulf breeze to push further inland during the
afternoon to evening hours, with convective activity pushing towards
I-95 and the Atlantic coast. With increased moisture coming from the
Gulf on westerly transport flow, widespread waves of downpours are
forecast area-wide into the weekend, which may be followed by a late
season cool front early next week. No low humidity concerns or fire
weather threats are expected through the weekend. Could see Poor to
Fair dispersions develop Friday afternoon across locations in
interior SE GA and on Sunday afternoon.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
into early next week, but patchy morning fog will be possible in
areas where heavy rain fell during the previous afternoon. Erratic
winds and heavy downpours are expected during periods of
thunderstorms over the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 69 83 68 84 / 50 80 60 80
SSI 74 84 73 87 / 60 70 40 80
JAX 72 87 71 89 / 50 80 50 80
SGJ 73 88 73 89 / 40 70 30 70
GNV 72 90 72 88 / 20 80 30 70
OCF 73 88 73 86 / 20 50 20 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 28, 1:49 PM EST, 1 hour 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
249 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
FLZ132-325-281915-
Eastern Clay FL-South Central Duval FL-
249 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL DUVAL COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM EDT...
At 249 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mandarin, moving northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central Duval
County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3013 8159 3019 8171 3019 8164 3025 8165
3029 8163 3023 8157 3020 8156 3017 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 219DEG 9KT 3019 8165
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CORDEROSpecial weather statement, May 28, 1:59 PM EST, 57 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
259 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
FLZ433-533-633-281930-
Northern Inland St. Johns FL-Western St. Johns FL-
Southern Inland St. Johns FL-
259 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL ST. JOHNS COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...
At 258 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near World Golf Village, or near Green Cove Springs,
moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
World Golf Village and Bakersville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
For boaters on or near the St Johns River, move to a safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on or near the water.
Gusty winds and choppy waves are likely. Make sure all on board are
wearing life jackets.
&&
LAT...LON 2981 8157 2996 8160 3004 8167 3010 8151
2995 8136 2987 8144
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 221DEG 13KT 3000 8156
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CORDEROSpecial weather statement, May 28, 2:11 PM EST, 45 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
311 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
FLZ233-433-633-281945-
Northern Inland St. Johns FL-Western St. Johns FL-
Northeast Coastal St. Johns FL-
311 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL ST. JOHNS COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM EDT...
At 310 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Durbin, or 11 miles east of Fruit Cove, moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Durbin and Nocatee.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2997 8138 3009 8150 3011 8148 3010 8145
3011 8143 3017 8143 3016 8136 3008 8135
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 224DEG 13KT 3005 8143
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CORDEROSpecial weather statement, May 28, 2:19 PM EST, 37 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
319 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
FLZ024-225-325-425-281945-
Western Duval FL-South Central Duval FL-Inland Nassau FL-
Trout River FL-
319 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU AND CENTRAL
DUVAL COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...
At 318 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cisco Gardens, or 10 miles west of Jacksonville, moving northeast at
15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Callahan, Jacksonville International Arpt, Cisco Gardens, Nassau
Village-Ratliff, Ratliff, Normandy, and Whitehouse Air Field.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3026 8177 3045 8202 3059 8177 3052 8164
3035 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 206DEG 12KT 3035 8185
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CORDEROSpecial weather statement, May 28, 2:22 PM EST, 34 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
322 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
FLZ125-233-325-282000-
South Central Duval FL-Coastal Duval FL-
Northeast Coastal St. Johns FL-
322 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ST. JOHNS AND
SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...
At 322 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Palm Valley, or near Ponte Vedra Beach, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Ponte Vedra Beach, Jacksonville Beach, Palm Valley, Sawgrass, and
Baymeadows.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3016 8136 3017 8144 3017 8156 3026 8157
3030 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 267DEG 25KT 3019 8142
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CORDEROSpecial weather statement, May 28, 2:43 PM EST, 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
343 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
FLZ233-333-433-533-633-282015-
Northern Inland St. Johns FL-Western St. Johns FL-
Southeast Coastal St. Johns FL-Northeast Coastal St. Johns FL-
Southern Inland St. Johns FL-
343 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM EDT...
At 343 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Federal Point, or near Hastings, moving east at 10
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Saint Augustine, Saint Augustine Beach, Saint Augustine Shores,
Butler Beach, Saint Augustine South, Picolata, Vilano Beach, Spuds,
Anastasia, and Bakersville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2978 8125 2972 8152 2973 8153 2976 8153
2977 8154 2982 8157 2992 8160 2998 8132
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 268DEG 10KT 2982 8152
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CORDERONOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1333322, 1333324, 1333329, 1333323, 1333325, 1333326, 1333327, 1333328, 1333316, 1333317, 1333318, 1333319, 1333320, 1333321.