May 2026 was a month of dramatic, high-stakes climatic shifts for North Mississippi. The month began with the region locked in the grip of a multi-season moisture deficit that peaked in intensity by mid-month.
Every event with a place to put it; 12 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
May 2026 was a month of dramatic, high-stakes climatic shifts for North Mississippi. The month began with the region locked in the grip of a multi-season moisture deficit that peaked in intensity by mid-month. For the first few weeks, an aggressive early-summer evaporation engine baked the region's topsoil, threatening to derail the spring planting season entirely.
However, the final third of the month brought a significant and much-needed atmospheric pattern shift. A series of massive storm complexes pushed heavy convective rainfall across the Deep South, breaking the multi-month dry spell. While these late-May deluges stabilized crashing topsoil moisture, climatologists quickly warned that the rain fell too fast to fully heal the deeply depleted subsoil and groundwater reserves.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 11:37 PM CST, 23 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1237 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 - There is a low to medium chance for light rain Friday night in southeast Arkansas and north Mississippi. - Cooler and drier weather is expected for the upcoming weekend, with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s. - A warm and wet pattern will return early next week with temperatures warming into the 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances return towards the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Tranquil weather resides along and east of the Mississippi River this evening as broad surface high pressure is in place. Aloft, GOES Water Vapor Imagery reveals a split flow pattern across the CONUS. A notable closed upper low is progressing through the Desert Southwest with several perturbations downstream over New Mexico and Texas. The upper low will translate east and dampen over the next 18 hours or so. As it does, a low pressure system will ride along the Gulf Coast with broad overrunning across the Lower Mississippi Valley. With current PWATs around 0.6 inches and negligible poleward moisture transport, showers will be confined to the central Mississippi with activity skirting across our north Mississippi. There is high confidence that QPF totals will remain light or less than a quarter inch. Behind the passing wave, a broad trough will be in place through this weekend and deliver a shot of cool Canadian air to the region. This will lead to cool and dry conditions each day. Sunday morning will be exceptionally cool with readings in the upper 30s near the Tennessee River to mid 40s across the Delta. Highs are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s each afternoon. The weather pattern will remain progressive through early next week with a trough digging across the Great Lakes region. This will result in surface cyclogenesis near the U.P. of Michigan and an attendant cold front traversing the Plains. Surface high pressure will slide east on Monday with moderate return flow setting up across the Lower Mississippi Valley in its wake. A large trough will dig down across the Northern Plains late Monday with an upper low off the California coast. There are some notable differences in the upper level pattern evolution of the northern and southern jet streams in the operational models. However, LREF guidance suggests that a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms will return to the region next Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. Joint probabilities of SBCAPE > 500 J/kg, CIN > -25 J/kg, and bulk shear > 30 knots remain less than 20% on Tuesday with 20 to 40% probabilities Wednesday afternoon. It's a bit early to sort out details, but showers and thunderstorms are increasingly likely Tuesday into Wednesday. Behind the front, cool Canadian air looks to settle into the region with below normal temperatures into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure remains over the region. Northeast winds will remain largely 10 kts or less over the next 30 hours, though a few occasional gusts around 18 kts can't be ruled out. CAMs are in decent agreement with -SHRA moving over TUP predominantly after 00Z, however, confidence was only high enough for a PROB30. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Fire weather concerns will remain low through the period due to recent wetting rains. Minimum relative humidity values will remain at or above 40 percent into Friday then falling to 35 to 40 percent this weekend with 20ft winds remaining light. Saturday presents the next opportunity for widespread RH values to drop near 35%. Humidity will increase early next week as a cold front approaches from the west. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...AEH
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
12 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
D4 Exceptional Drought and D3 Extreme Drought persisted the entire month across the county.
D3 Extreme Drought persisted the entire month across southern portions of the county.
D2 Severe Drought persisted the entire month across the county.
D3 Extreme Drought and D2 Severe Drought conditions persisted the entire month across the county.
D3 Extreme Drought and D2 Severe Drought conditions persisted the entire month across the county.
D2 Severe Drought conditions improved to D1 Moderate Drought by the end of the month.
D2 Severe Drought conditions improved to D1 Moderate Drought by the end of the month.
D3 Extreme Drought conditions persisted across the county the entire month.
D3 Extreme Drought and D2 Severe Drought conditions persisted across western portions of the county the entire month.
D2 Severe Drought conditions persisted across portions of the county but improved to D1 Moderate Drought by the end of the month.
D2 Severe Drought conditions persisted across portions of the county through the entire month.
D2 Severe Drought conditions persisted across portions of the county through the entire month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1338196, 1338197, 1338198, 1338199, 1338200, 1338201, 1338202, 1338203, 1338204, 1338205, 1338206, 1338207.