Severe drought conditions (D2 D3) developed and intensified across portions of the New Orleans/Baton Rouge WFO area during February 2026, driven by persistent precipitation deficits and limited meaningful rainfall events. Early in the month, only isolated areas of severe drought (D2) were present across the northwestern parts of the region, but conditions steadily worsened as rainfall remained…
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LIX wrote it up.
Severe drought conditions (D2 D3) developed and intensified across portions of the New Orleans/Baton Rouge WFO area during February 2026, driven by persistent precipitation deficits and limited meaningful rainfall events. Early in the month, only isolated areas of severe drought (D2) were present across the northwestern parts of the region, but conditions steadily worsened as rainfall remained below normal, with precipitation deficits of roughly 2 to 4 inches observed across much of the region by the end of February. As a result, D2 drought expanded significantly across southern and southwestern portions of the forecast area, while pockets of extreme drought (D3) developed, particularly near coastal Louisiana. By late February, over 30 percent of the area was classified in D2 drought and more than 10 percent in D3, reflecting a rapid degradation in soil moisture and hydrologic conditions. The expansion of drought was most pronounced south of the Interstate 10 corridor, while areas farther north experienced more gradual degradation, generally remaining in D0 to D1 conditions.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 5:17 PM CST, 6 hours 43 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
517 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 510 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
- Another significant Arctic outbreak will impact the region
through the weekend. Temperatures and wind chills will be colder
than last weekend, with impacts already underway and continuing
through early Monday morning. The primary threats will be
dangerously low temperatures and wind chills. While temperatures
got above freezing in most areas today, wind chills remained in
the 20s.
- Gale force winds will continue through tonight while gusty winds
impact all of the area. Wind gusts could possibly get over 40
mph across the coast and south of the tidal lakes.
- Temperatures will moderate starting Monday, but will still
remain below normal for much of next week. Wednesday will be the
best chance for rain ahead of the next cold front that will
move through.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1031 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
The main story of today is the cold and the winds. In the upper
levels we see a positively tilted trough sliding down through the
Tennessee valley and eventually off the Southeast coast later
today. At the surface a high pressure system over the Southern
Plains will gradually move into our area throughout the day today.
Before that high pressure gets here, the pressure gradient will
cause winds to be rather gusty throughout the day. Gusts from
25-35mph will be common, with a few gust to around 40mph not out
of the question. Due to this, a Wind Advisory remains in place
through midnight tonight.
The winds being so breezy will also cause fairly cool wind chills
today. While the afternoon high temperatures should reach above
freezing for most, the gusty winds will cause wind chills to
barely reach 25 for the entire area. Overnight tonight, low
temperatures are expected to drop into the upper teens for
northern areas and the low to mid 20s for southern and coastal
areas. Wind chills will get as low as the single digits for some
northern areas, with most areas around 10-15F. An Extreme Cold
Warning is in effect through 9AM Sunday due to these conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1031 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
Heading into the long term period, we will star off with another
chilly night on Sunday though not as bas as Saturday night. With
the high pressure system well moved into the area by this
timeframe, winds will relax which will help with wind chills not
really being an different than the low temperatures. Lows Sunday
night into Monday morning are forecast to be in the mid to upper
20s north and the upper 20s to lower 30s south. While last
forecast cycle we were hovering right around Cold Weather
Advisory criteria, the model trended a bit warmer this run and I
would lean closer to that solution, so no cold hazards expected.
Monday and Tuesday bring pretty calm weather, with a brief warm up
into the low 60s Monday and even the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday.
Low temperatures Tuesday morning are forecast to be back up into
the 40s for most areas as well. Wednesday brings our next weather
system in the form of yet another cold front, though as of right
now this one is not looking to be quite as strong. Lows may drop
just below freezing for some northern areas, otherwise looking
like the mid 30s elsewhere. This one does however look to bring a
pretty good chance of rain with it. PoPs early Wednesday morning
currently forecast to peak at 75-85% for a good portion of the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
VFR conditions across all terminals and should remain that way
through the forecast period. Could see some high clouds tomorrow,
but don't expect anything much below FL080. Winds gusting above 25
knots at most terminals should abate over the next few hours at
all but KNEW and KMSY, where it will take until well after
midnight. Winds on Sunday generally below 15 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1031 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
Winds remain elevated out of the north through the day behind
yesterdays cold front. High end SCY and Gale conditions will
continue for the next 15-20 hrs before high pressure finally builds
in Sunday causing winds to quickly relax. High pressure will
continue to slowly slide east moving away from the area Monday. This
will lead to onshore winds to returning late Monday but the next
cold front will already be closing in, moving across the region
Wednesday. This front will bring the return of gusty winds mid to
late week, up to at least SCY criteria.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST Sunday for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LAZ058>060-064>070-
076>078-087>090.
GM...Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Sunday
for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST Sunday for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MSZ086>088.
GM...Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Sunday
for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...HLThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Long term D2 to D3 drought persisted through the whole month of February for portions of Amite County according to the US Drought Monitor.
Long term D2 to D3 drought persisted through the whole month of February for portions of Wilkinson County according to the US Drought Monitor.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, February 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1320051, 1320052.