Wildfire in Minnesota, May 15 to 20, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1235 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous, critical fire weather conditions occur today. Any
  fires that start will spread rapidly due to 40 mph gusts and
  humidity as low as 15%. Red Flag Warnings are in effect.

- Severe weather pattern is becoming increasingly likely Sunday
  and especially Monday to support all severe hazards.

- Heavy, potentially flooding, rainfall Sunday afternoon into
  Tuesday morning may exceed totals of 2 inches in some areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Up Front: Dangerous, critical fire weather conditions will
occur across the Northland today. Any fires that do start will
spread rapidly.

Early this morning, a few isolated high-based showers and stray
lightning flashes remain possible across the Iron Range and the
Arrowhead, though rainfall will be very minimal. As the sun
rises, mixing deepens between 8 AM and 11 AM, tapping into very
dry air and high momentum aloft. This will cause relative
humidity to plummet into the 15 to 25 percent range while
westerly to southwesterly winds increase significantly.

From late morning to the dusk hours today, dangerous and
critical fire weather conditions will be ongoing. Winds will be
strongest north of the US Highway 2 corridor, where west-
southwest gusts reach 40 mph. Further south, from the Brainerd
Lakes into northwest Wisconsin, gusts will generally remain
around 30 mph. Unseasonably warm temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s will aid in creating those dangerous fire weather
conditions. Additionally, we are monitoring the potential for
patchy blowing dust in the far northern Minnesota Borderlands.
Dust lofted from the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies could
transport into Koochiching and northern St. Louis counties this
afternoon, resulting in a hazy appearance and minor visibility
reductions for travelers.

Conditions will briefly settle tonight as winds diminish toward
sunset. However, moisture recovery will be poor across
northwest Wisconsin and the Brainerd Lakes, where humidity may
only rise to around 50 percent. This persistent dryness sets the
stage for continued near-critical fire weather concerns on
Saturday, particularly in northwest Wisconsin into north-central
Wisconsin counties. West-northwesterly winds gust around 20 mph
under mostly sunny skies. Cooler temperatures in the 60s
Saturday will be cooler than those in northwest Wisconsin where
70s are still expected.

The weather story changes dramatically on Sunday as a powerful and
dynamic storm system ejects from the Rockies. Deep moisture will
surge northward, fueling widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Severe weather is becoming increasingly likely Sunday afternoon
and evening, primarily for the Brainerd Lakes and east-central
Minnesota regions. All hazards, including damaging winds, a few
tornadoes and large hail, are on the table. Heavy rainfall will
accompany these storms, with a continued threat for localized
flooding as the system lingers through Monday.

On Monday, the severe threat shifts slightly eastward, focusing
on east-central Minnesota and inland northwest Wisconsin. Wind
shear profiles Monday indicate support for significant severe
weather as damaging winds and very large hail are possible.
Rainfall totals by Tuesday morning could exceed 1.5-2 inches
for much of the area. Being on the northern edge of the warm
sector for both days, expect a fairly tight gradient in the
ingredients available for severe weather for locations along the
US Hwy 2 corridor each day (much less likely northward).

A Canadian Prairies low pressure system is likely to phase with the
decaying southerly moisture tap Tuesday and will have to be
monitored for its own potential of impactful storms and
localized heavy rainfall again.

A tightening pressure gradient sets up Sunday to create a period
of strong easterly winds off Lake Superior into the South Shore
and much of northeast Minnesota. Wind gusts for shoreline
locations of the Twin Ports and North Shore are forecast in the
30 to 40 mph range Sunday and again Tuesday. High temperatures
Sunday are forecast in the upper-50s to mid-50s for these
locations, while further inland south of a line from MN 210 to
WI SR 70 temperatures reach the mid-60s to low-70s.

As the system finally departs mid-week, the region will
transition to a much cooler and showery regime with temperatures
falling back into the 50s to low 60s. Another warm up towards
normal is expected though again to end next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

We are dealing with a very dry and windy day out there. Strong
winds aloft have been occasionally mixing down some pretty
strong gusts out there, notably around 47 kt at INL. While
most gusts are likely to be less than that, around 25 to 35 kt,
a few rogue gusts approaching 50 kt could be possible at any
terminal this afternoon. Otherwise, expect gusty southwest winds
to decrease swiftly around sunset and become lighter overnight.
Some breezy conditions may redevelop late Saturday morning, but
gusts will be much less than today. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected with quiet weather. There are some hints that there
could be a little low-level stratus that could create some MVFR
ceilings around INL Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all nearshore waters.
Southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots will build
waves to 3 to 6 feet, especially along the North Shore. Winds ease
Saturday before a potential Gale Warning is required for Sunday and
again Tuesday as a powerful low pressure system arrives. Severe
weather cannot be ruled out along the South Shore Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Dangerous, critical fire weather conditions will occur today. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect from Noon today to 9 PM this
evening for all of northeast Minnesota and nearly all of
northwest Wisconsin. Westerly winds will gust 30 to 40 mph while
relative humidity drops to 15-25%. Combined with highs in the
upper-70s to low-80s, any fires that do start will spread
rapidly. Poor overnight relative humidity recovery is expected
tonight for the Brainerd Lakes to east-central and across
northwest Wisconsin. The exception is Price County where a nose
of moisture sets up this evening and lasts into tonight.
Conditions remain near-critical Saturday in Wisconsin.

A widespread heavy rainfall event sets up Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday morning for all districts. Severe storms with
damaging winds are possible for areas south of US Hwy 2 Sunday
PM and again Monday PM. Lingering thunderstorm chances will have
to be monitored even for Tuesday AM for possible impactful
stronger storms too. Easterly winds will be quite gusty for the
South Shore and much of northeast Minnesota Sunday and again
Tuesday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001>004-
     006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     141>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140.

&&

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...NLy
FIRE WEATHER...NLy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
517 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-161030-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
517 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Warm, dry, and windy conditions are forecast Friday across the
Northland. A Red Flag Warning in effect for strong and gusty winds
and low relative humidity for most of northeast Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin.

Localized minor flooding continues over portions of the Boundary
Waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Localized minor flooding also continues in the Boundary Waters
region.

Looking ahead, a strong spring system will bring thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall from Sunday into early next week. Severe
storms are possible Sunday evening through early Monday morning
south of a line from Walker to Cloquet to Hayward to Ladysmith.
The risk of severe storms shifts slightly farther east Monday
afternoon and evening to east of a line from near Brainerd to
Duluth to western Upper Michigan, including the I-35 corridor and
all of northwest Wisconsin. Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and
large hail to golf ball size are the main severe weather threats.
Localized minor flooding is possible with the storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-150-161030-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
517 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A period of stronger winds continues today and this evening, and
will create building waves and hazardous conditions for small
craft. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Another period of strong and gusty winds is expected to develop
Sunday through Tuesday, with the potential for gales up to 40
knots Sunday afternoon and night. A combination of Small Craft
Advisories and Gale Warnings will eventually be needed.

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday night through late Monday
night. A few storms may be severe with wind gusts up to 50 knots
and hail up to golf ball size.

LE

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth