A strong low pressure system brought strong winds less than 58 mph across northwest Minnesota, however there was one report of high wind damage in Roseau County that supported winds around 60 mph.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
A strong low pressure system brought strong winds less than 58 mph across northwest Minnesota, however there was one report of high wind damage in Roseau County that supported winds around 60 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 14, 10:47 PM CST, 2 hours 13 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1147 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong westerly winds will continue through Friday over much
of the region, bringing the potential for blowing dust impacts
again on Friday afternoon.
- Dry conditions along with the winds will bring critical fire
weather conditions tonight and tomorrow. A Red Flag Warning
is in effect for all counties through Friday evening.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
The blowing dust advisory will be allowed to expire at Midnight,
as visibility observations are slowly improving across the
area. It will likely remain hazy overnight, but impactful
visibility reductions will be hard to come by as winds have
really tapered off. No other changes to the forecast are needed
at this time.
UPDATE Issued at 710 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Several updates were made as of early this evening.
First, the blowing dust warning in the central Red River Valley is
being allowed to expire on time. Conditions have greatly
improved in this area as winds decreased late this afternoon.
The blowing dust advisory across the southern Red River Valley
and adjacent portions of west central MN is also going to be
allowed to expire on time.
The next area of dust is advecting in from the west with a cold
front, overspreading the Devils Lake Basin and entering the
northern Red River Valley. Visibilities have quickly dropped
from over 6 miles to a mile or less as this batch of dust
arrives, with KGFK going from 10 SM to 2 SM visibility over the
past 20 minutes. Therefore, the blowing dust advisory was
extended in time until 10 PM for northeastern ND and the
northern Red River Valley. The big questions as we go into
tonight are 1) how strong the winds remain as the boundary layer
decouples and 2) how much blowing dust continues. Neither of
these questions are clear cut, as the strongest CAA is
overspreading the region right now (which would favor winds
decreasing a bit later), and the strongest winds aloft to mix
down do not arrive until after sunset (which is a poor time for
max momentum transfer to occur). If we are able to tap into
these winds overnight, there is a scenario where blowing dust
continues to some degree throughout the night. These trends will
be monitored as we go over the next couple of hours to
determine how to handle headlines from here.
And briefly - a few gusts upstream in Rugby and Rolla have
breached high wind criteria. As of right now, heading into the
less diurnally favorable time of day to mix those higher gusts
down, there are no plans to change wind headlines.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Strong upper low rotating over Saskatchewan will move east
tonight. The surface low will continue to move slowly across
southern Canada, with the trough axis currently extending down
into eastern ND moving off into MN. Pressure gradient in our
western counties is starting to relax just a bit as the trough
axis comes in, but plenty tight in northwestern ND close to the
surface low. The strong southerly winds that are bringing our
blowing dust and dropping vis close to a quarter of a mile in
some spots will decrease a bit late this afternoon. Behind the
through axis, there will be a decent pressure gradient along
with some cold air advection. Model soundings have mixing all
the way up to 700mb, and although the jet is not quite as
strong, there is plenty of momentum to mix down. Winds at least
across the northern portions of the CWA will pick up again
tonight and tomorrow, with probabilities of wind gusts over 40
mph at 50 percent along and north of I-94 and 80 to 100 percent
along and north of Highway 2. Extended wind advisory for all but
our southern and eastern counties through tonight and tomorrow.
While definitely could see another day of blowing dust this
afternoon into Friday, this time from the west instead of the
south, confidence in exactly where and how low visibility will
go is uncertain. Most likely will be expanding the blowing dust
advisory into Devils Lake Basin and upper Sheyenne in addition
to the RRV through 00Z as the west winds start coming in this
evening. Will wait and see if any more dust products are needed
beyond that tonight and tomorrow. The west winds will bring
even lower RHs, as current values are around 20 percent. There
will be a little bit of recovery tonight as RH values come up
into the 40 and 50s, but fire danger will remain high. Afternoon
RH values in all of our area should get down to 20 to 25
percent. Winds will be 20 to 25 mph even outside of the wind
advisory area. Thus, expanded the Red Flag warning to all of our
counties from now until 9 pm tomorrow.
Will finally see a break in the wind on Saturday as surface high
pressure builds in behind the departing low. Southwesterly flow
aloft sets up for Sunday with a lead shortwave trough coming
out. The main surface low seems like it will be over SD/MN/WI
Sunday into Monday, with better moisture over our area than the
current system. The ECMWF EFI has a decent signal for some
precipitation, and NBM has a over 60 percent chance CWA-wide for
over a quarter of an inch of rain. There is even 50 to 60
percent chance of over an inch of rain by 06Z Monday across
portions of southeastern ND and west central MN. Some of the
ensembles have some instability creeping into our far
southeastern counties Sunday afternoon, although others keep
even elevated CAPE under 500 J/kg. Plenty of deep layer shear
though, so will have to watch for any severe thunderstorm
chances that day.
The main upper trough finally moves out into the Plains for the
first part of next week, eventually becoming more northwesterly
again by Thursday. Temperatures will be cooling down again back
down below seasonal averages, with a few minor precipitation
chances.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Aviation impacts from BLDU and high winds will remain at the
forefront throughout the TAF period. Strong westerly winds are
expected to develop Friday morning. As they do, BLDU will occur
again at KDVL, KGFK, KFAR and KTVF. While predictability in the
wind forecast is high, predictability in the severity of BLDU
remains much less so. Therefore, this set of TAFs takes a
middle of the road approach, highlighting the most likely
period of poor IFR visibility as Friday afternoon. However,
much as we saw today (Thursday), BLDU may occasionally become
more severe and reduce visibility further. Visibility will
improve as winds decrease Friday evening.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-054.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MNZ001>005-007-008-
013>015-022-027.
&&
UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RaffertyHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1056 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026 MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030- 038-039-054-160400- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall- Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Mahnomen-West Becker-Towner- Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson- Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Western Walsh- 1056 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Tonight Dry conditions along with winds will bring critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday A wind advisory in effect through Friday for winds gusting up to 55 mph. Dry conditions along with the winds will bring critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect through Friday evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated today. MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024-028>032-040-NDZ049-052-053-160400- Lake Of The Woods-North Beltrami-North Clearwater-South Beltrami- South Clearwater-Hubbard-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail- East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- 1056 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Tonight Dry conditions along with winds will bring critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Dry conditions along with the winds will bring critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect through Friday evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated today.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Measured gust at MN057 MN dot station located 1 ENE Saint Vincent, MN.
Report and video received via social media of birch tree downed by gusty non thunderstorm winds. Time estimated based on time post was made to social media, along with maximum gust timing on KROX AWOS and NDAWN station 213629 Greenbush MN, where peak gusts to 45 mph were reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1333559, 1333557.