A compact short-wave within northwest flow aloft moved across the Northern Plains late February 27 into February 28. Mid-level frontogenesis and sufficient moisture resulted in a narrow band of light to moderate snow mainly along and north of a De Smet, SD to Windom, MN line.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FSD wrote it up.
A compact short-wave within northwest flow aloft moved across the Northern Plains late February 27 into February 28. Mid-level frontogenesis and sufficient moisture resulted in a narrow band of light to moderate snow mainly along and north of a De Smet, SD to Windom, MN line. These areas received 1-4 inches of snow, with a few locations exceeding 5 inches. Winds were light during the snowfall, limiting blowing and drifting.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 10:53 PM CST, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1053 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A snow band is expected to bring snow accumulations north of
the I- 90 corridor overnight into Saturday morning. The
highest snow amounts, 1-3 inches, will be confined to near
and north of a De Smet SD to Windom MN line. Further south, a
light dusting remains possible.
- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Lincoln and
Lyon counties in southwest Minnesota from 3 am to noon
Saturday. 1-3 inches of snow remains expected but isolated
higher amounts up to 4 inches is possible. Especially if light
snow persists through Saturday afternoon.
- A low chance of light snow develops Sunday, followed by
periodic low to moderate chances for precipitation next week.
High confidence in an active spring weather pattern, but low
confidence in precipitation timing and type (rain, snow,
and/or mix), highly dependent on temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Latest 00z guidance has come in a bit further south with tonight's
snow band. With the nudge southwards, confidence has increased in
snowfall amounts up to 1-3 inches across portions of Lincoln and
Lyon counties in southwest Minnesota. Isolated higher amounts up to
4 inches is possible. Thus have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for
these counties that is in effect from 3 am to noon on Saturday. The
band of snow will exit the area by tomorrow afternoon though some
very light snow showers may persist into the afternoon timeframe.
This could result in an extension of the Advisory through the
afternoon timeframe and push snowfall totals more broadly to 3-4
inches if confidence increases in light snow persisting. Any chance
for light snow will come to an end by tomorrow evening, leaving dry
and quiet conditions for the rest of Saturday evening.
Another round of very light snow remains possible for Sunday
afternoon. However, after looking at the latest guidance, have
trended PoPs down as the bulk of the guidance has precipitation well
south of the forecast area. Left some slight chance PoPs in place as
due to a few models continuing the northern solution, so didn't want
to completely rule out the possibility.
Additional chances for precipitation will persist through the rest
week but differences in how medium range guidance handles the upper
and lower level waves prevents any deviations from the NBM at this
time. The good news is that none of these systems looks to be a
major system with light precipitation being the main hazard.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON: Looking across the region, temperatures range
from the low 50s (Highway 14 corridor) to the 60s (Highway 20
corridor as of 2 PM. Highs will reach near or exceeding records at a
few sites in northwest IA and southwest MN (for example, Sanborn,
Sibley, Worthington, Windom, Lake Park, and Spencer). Model blends
have struggled all day in keeping up with efficient mixing, with
gusts peaking in the 40s and dew points dropping to 17 to 25 degrees
throughout the day in the Warning area. Dew points have regularly
dipped to near or below the NBM 5th percentile. Have expanded the
Red Flag Warning to account for localized, more efficient mixing.
Near critical to critical fire danger persists across the region
through sunset. See the Fire Weather section below for more details.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY: This evening, attention turns to a cold front
dropping south into the Northern Plains and a trailing compact
shortwave in northwest flow aloft. Warm air advection and moderate
mid level frontogenetical forcing with the wave should prompt
sufficient top-down saturation to produce light to moderate snow
near and north of a De Smet to Windom line late tonight into
Saturday morning. This area can expect around 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation by Saturday afternoon. The big lingering question is
exact snowband placement and how far south snow will occur,
especially for anyone traveling toward the Twin Cities or Fargo this
weekend. It is possible to get a light (<1") dusting of snow as far
south as Chamberlain to Sioux Falls to Storm Lake. However the
00z/06z/12z deterministic models have maintained the northward shift
of the snowband placement, putting the bulk of the heaviest snow (3-
6") oriented from northeast SD through west central MN and toward
the Twin Cities metro. There also remains a little uncertainty
regarding when snow will end Saturday afternoon in southwest MN. A
few models suggesting flurries or light snow may linger as late as
Saturday evening northeast of the Buffalo Ridge, where isolated
amounts of 3 to 4 inches cannot be ruled out.
Aside from snow creating minor travel impacts, the other main story
will be a cool down heading into Saturday. Sites receiving 1+ inches
of snow are unlikely to see temperatures above the freezing mark
Saturday. Further south, highs in the 30s to mid 40s will be common
but warming will somewhat depend on clouds clearing.
SUNDAY: Strong Arctic high pressure builds eastward along the
Canadian border early Sunday. Currently have low temperatures
starting the day in the single digits to teens, but if clouds clear
out overnight, lows could be colder than currently forecast. Broad
warm air advection brings a low chance of light snow or flurries
Sunday, but impacts look to be minor at this time.
MONDAY: Upper level flow becomes zonal across the Plains Monday as a
strong upper trough progresses through the West. A leading, zonal
flow shortwave brings a low to moderate (30-50%) chance of rain or
snow Monday afternoon into early Tuesday. Expect a breezy, cool
Monday with highs in the 40s.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND: A progressive Colorado Low ejects into the
Plains mid week and perhaps another Friday/next weekend, bringing
periodic, spring-like precipitation chances across the Central U.S.
through the week. While a blend of model guidance would currently
favor highs in the 40s and 50s, a majority of deterministic model
guidance runs much cooler with highs 5-10 degrees cooler daily.
Given the low confidence in temperatures, confidence in
precipitation type will be highly dependent on speed and timing of
the wave (i.e., snow more likely at night).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
VFR conditions begin the TAF period. Confidence has increased in the
timing and location of light snow tonight. The bulk will still fall
across portions of highway-14 in southwest Minnesota, including KMML
and KTKC. But KHON should see light snow being a few hours after
midnight. Ceilings will lower to MVFR/IFR levels while visibilities
fall to IFR thresholds in falling snow. Perhaps briefly down to LIFR
visibilities at peak snowfall rates. The light snow will last
through the morning hours before the bulk of it pushes northeast of
the area. Some light snow could persist through the afternoon hours
but this would mainly be for portions of southwest Minnesota. VFR
conditions will return to the vast majority of the area, including
all TAF sites. Winds will turn out of the northeast and remain
elevated to end the TAF period.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Saturday for
MNZ071-072.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
UPDATE...Meyers
DISCUSSION...BP
AVIATION...MeyersHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 203 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 IAZ012-020-021-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ050-052-057>060-063>071-282200- Sioux-Plymouth-Cherokee-Woodbury-Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Gregory-Jerauld- Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner- Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-Union- 203 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, northeast Nebraska, central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Northwest wind gusts to 50 mph along with warm temperatures and very dry conditions lead to critical fire conditions today. Use extreme caution to prevent fire start and report wildfires to authorities. Light snow chances return after midnight tonight, but any accumulations are likely to remain under one inch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Periods of light precipitation, including snow, are possible Sunday and again early next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. IAZ001>003-013-014-022-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ038>040- 053>056-061-062-282200- Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-O'Brien-Clay-Buena Vista-Lincoln-Murray- Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings- Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-McCook-Minnehaha- 203 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, southwest Minnesota, east central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Northwest wind gusts to 40 mph along with warm temperatures and dry conditions lead to near critical fire conditions today. Use extreme caution to prevent fire start and report wildfires to authorities. Light accumulating snow returns after midnight tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Light to moderate snow continues into Saturday afternoon. Expect total snow accumulations of one to three inches, highest north of a De Smet to Windom line. Periods of light precipitation, including snow, are possible Sunday and again early next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 winter weather, 1 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall totaled 4.5 inches 8 miles southeast of Hendricks.
Snowfall totaled 1.7 inches in Slayton.
Snowfall totaled 3.0 inches in Windom.
Snowfall totaled 6.4 inches in Minneota, 6.3 inches 4.7 miles south of Cottonwood, 6.0 inches 2.1 miles southeast of Balaton, and 3.0 inches in Marshall.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, February 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1321407, 1321410, 1321411, 1321409.