Minnesota, 2026Drought in Minnesota, April 21 to 28, 2026
April 21 to 28, 2026 · NWS FSD · 1 event in 1 county or zone
Near normal temperatures and precipitation led to a brief period of severe (D2) drought around mid to late month.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Near normal temperatures and precipitation led to a brief period of severe (D2) drought around mid to late month.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 20, 11:22 PM CST, 38 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Very high/near critical fire danger returns Wednesday and perhaps Thursday.
- Low to moderate chances for showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday night into Thursday night. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible east of a Spencer to Sioux City line Thursday night. Confidence in severe weather threat is low due to poor model agreement in cold front progression.
- Above normal temperatures persist through Wednesday, when highs of 80 to 95 degrees are expected. A pattern shift means cooler weather returns for the weekend with highs dropping back into the 50s and 60s.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 20, 11:22 PM CST, 38 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1222 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very high/near critical fire danger returns Wednesday and
perhaps Thursday.
- Low to moderate chances for showers and thunderstorms return
Wednesday night into Thursday night. Isolated strong to severe
storms are possible east of a Spencer to Sioux City line
Thursday night. Confidence in severe weather threat is low due
to poor model agreement in cold front progression.
- Above normal temperatures persist through Wednesday, when
highs of 80 to 95 degrees are expected. A pattern shift means
cooler weather returns for the weekend with highs dropping
back into the 50s and 60s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire this evening as winds
have quickly tapered down. However, a slower improvement in relative
humidity keeps some elevated fire danger in place through the late
evening. Continue to heed any local burn restrictions.
High clouds continue to linger across eastern SD, with additional
high clouds across the far western portions of the state as well
thanks to a mid/upper level wave. This continues to move southeast
through the night, and still anticipate mostly clear skies. No
significant changes to the forecast for the next 12-24 hours, with
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s and generally light winds tonight
as weak surface trough moves through. Tuesday is still on tap to be
sunny and warm with relatively light winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON: Looking across the region, temperatures range
from the low 60s to around 70 degrees as of 2 PM. Deeper mixing than
models expected has yielded gusts peaking 25 to 35 mph, but warm air
advection has brought rising humidity (currently 21 to 35 degrees)
and slow-to-warm temperatures. Dew points remain near the NBM 25th
percentile. Periods of near-critical to critical fire danger will
persist through sunset. See the Fire Weather section below for more
details.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY: Winds weaken tonight as a dry, weak sfc trough
slides in northwest flow, reducing fire danger. Mostly clear skies
will pave the way for another chilly night, but a steep near-sfc
inversion will keep lows a bit warmer than previous nights. Expect
temperatures to bottom out in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Meandering on the dry side of a quasi-stationary front near the I-80
corridor means continued very dry conditions for Tuesday. Efficient
mixing quickly through the nocturnal inversion into light winds
aloft will make for a sunny, warmer spring day with high confidence
highs ranging from the mid 70s (southwest MN) to mid 80s (Hwy 20
corridor and south central SD).
WEDNESDAY: Notably hotter, windier, and dry conditions develop
Wednesday in response to a 90th percentile (of NAEFS climatology)
upper ridge building through. Currently have forecast high
temperatures ranging from the lower 80s (east of I-29) to the lower
90s (west of the SD James River Valley), but see potential for
temperatures to tick up a few degrees based on recent blend biases.
A south wind mixing into a strong low level jet lends high
confidence to gusts peaking in the 30s. Model forecast profiles show
potential for some lower 40s gusts in south central SD. Higher winds
combined with hotter weather brings high confidence in fire weather
headlines across at least a portion of the area Wednesday and low
confidence in fire danger on Thursday. See Fire Weather section for
details.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: A progressive upper low treks east
into the Upper High Plains Wednesday night, introducing a low to
moderate (<60%) chance for isolated showers and storms in central
SD. This activity may progress eastward leading to some scattered
showers and/or storms for the day Thursday. While agreement in a mid
level speed max in the area is sufficient to warrant isolated severe
storm threat, moisture and instability may be weak enough to prevent
organized convection. Portions of northwest Iowa are currently
highlighted in a SPC Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook, but will need to
continue to monitor model trends as models differ greatly in the
residence time in the warm sector and the speed of the associated
cold frontal passage (slower Euro vs faster GFS/NAM).
FRIDAY AND BEYOND: Behind Thursday's front, temperatures will be
much cooler for the weekend with highs again dropping to the 50s and
60s and nightly lows near to below the freezing mark. The mid week
upper low closes off over the Canadian prairie favoring below normal
temperatures at least into early next week. The resultant zonal
flow aloft brings lower confidence in next week's forecast with
a moderate (20-40%) chance of at least some light rain (or
rain/snow mix) Sunday night into Monday with a passing wave.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
Seeing some stronger (gusts around 25-30 knots) along the US Hwy
20 corridor and south as we mix into the LLJ. Expect this to end
by 21.08-09z. Once we stop mixing into the LLJ, LLWS quickly
develops along and just north of the US Hwy 20 corridor. Some
guidance does show a couple hours of LLWS toward KFSD and the
I-90 corridor; however, low enough confidence in occurrence to
omit mention. For the rest of the period, winds will be variable
in direction and relatively light, with gusts around 15 knots.
VFR conditions prevail with a few high clouds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
As of 2 PM, wind gusts have slightly exceeded expectations this
afternoon with occasional gusts of 25 to 35 mph, but dew points
have risen slightly faster than expected. This balance has
brought occasional critical fire conditions across the region,
but most persistently confined to the Red Flag Warning area.
Near critical to critical fire danger persists across the region
through early this evening due to low humidity and gusty south
winds.
High clouds near and east of a Huron to Sioux Falls to Sioux City
line have limited heating a bit. Additionally, west of I-29,
southerly winds have peaked and begun to weaken. Fire danger lessens
considerably with sunset as winds weaken drastically and nighttime
cooling commences.
On Tuesday, dry air lingers with abundant sunshine and humidity
dipping below 25 percent across the region. Fortunately lighter
winds gusting mostly just in the teens should inhibit critical
conditions from developing.
Greater concern for fire danger returns Wednesday. The Hot-Dry-Windy
Index highlights Wednesday afternoon as the main period of wildfire
concern for the week with unseasonable warmth and south winds
gusting 35 to 45 mph. Will be closely monitoring this period for
potential fire weather headlines. Confidence in fire danger
decreases for Thursday with low rain chances and increased
cloudiness, but gusty winds and post-frontal dry air may ignite very
high fire danger once again.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...BP
AVIATION...SG
FIRE WEATHER...BP
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 20, 7:10 PM CST, 4 hours 50 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
810 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-220115-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
810 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Although winds are diminishing, slower improvements to humidity may
lead to elevated fire danger through late this evening. Continue to
heed any local burning restrictions.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Continued dry and windy conditions will lead to elevated fire
concerns on Wednesday. Avoid any planned burn activities, and use
caution with all outdoor activities.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Drought, Lincoln
- When
- April 21, 12:00 AM CST to April 28, 12:00 AM CST
- Where
- Lincoln forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 44.413, -96.267 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
A brief period of severe (D2) drought conditions developed mid-month and improved to moderate (D1) again by late month.
- Drought
- A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Wildfire in Nebraska, April 21 to 23, 2026$449,000 · 2 events
- Dust Storm and High Wind in Nevada, April 21 to 22, 2026$17,000 · 66 kt wind · 19 events
- Drought in Virginia, April 21 to 30, 202627 events
- Drought in Alabama, April 21 to 30, 202614 events
- Drought in North Carolina, April 21 to 30, 20269 events
- Drought in Kansas, April 21 to 30, 20266 events
- Hail in Wisconsin, April 21, 20261 in hail · 6 events
- Drought in West Virginia, April 21 to 30, 20265 events
- Drought in Texas, April 21 to 30, 20265 events
- Blizzard and High Wind in Alaska, April 21 to 23, 202663 kt wind · 5 events
- Drought in Kansas, April 21 to 30, 20264 events
- High Wind in Utah, April 21 to 22, 202661 kt wind · 4 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1332846.