Hail and Damaging Wind in Michigan, May 17, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
254 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and
  evening, mainly along and north of I-69. Damaging winds, large
  hail and isolated tornadoes.

- The risk for severe weather exists again Monday and Tuesday mainly
  during the afternoon and evening. Warm and windy conditions will
  also prevail.

- Cooler conditions can be expected Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Ongoing surface analysis and trends show an increasingly more
buoyant/unstable airmass advecting northward toward a quasi
stationary front extending across the southern Saginaw Valley and
thumb. This may provide a focus more more robust convective
development later this afternoon/evening. Ascent will be aided by
broad mid level height falls associated with an MCV that will track
across nrn Lower Mi late this afternoon and evening. The latest RAP
indicates surface based Cape nearing 2k J/kg feeding into the
frontal boundary this evening. Respectable bulk shear and low level
helicity values will favor supercells, with damaging winds, large
hail and an isolated tornado remaining the primary severe weather
hazards. Convective chances will decrease farther south due to
weaker forcing.

Subtle short wave ridging will build across Lower Mi overnight in
the wake of the MCS passing across nrn Lower Mi. This will suppress
convective development late tonight into Mon morning. Remnant
boundary layer moisture convergence along the frontal boundary
around the Saginaw Bay and thumb region may support some localized
fog. Although strengthening low level wind fields overnight will
largely be elevated from the nocturnal boundary layer, model
solutions indicate enough boundary layer flow to drive the front
north of the forecast area by daybreak Monday, placing the entire
forecast area in the warm sector. The light flow combined with
elevated sfc dewpoints will warrant relative mild nighttime lows in
the 60s.

Diurnal mixing will result in warm and windy conditions on Monday.
While temperatures look to make another run into the 80s, the
potential for late day convection supports leaning toward the lower
end of the model guidance spectrum (low to mid 80s for highs).
Convection timing and coverage will depend heavily on the upscale
convective growth upstream tonight. There is reasonable agreement
among the 12Z hi res suite that convectively induced short wave
features will traverse Se Mi Monday afternoon/evening, coinciding
with peak diurnal destabilization. The forced ascent would also erode
the mid level capping inversion, resulting in scattered to possibly
numerous thunderstorms. Weak to moderate instability with good cape
density will result in a chance for severe storms, with damaging
winds and large hail being the primary severe weather hazards.

Severe chances will be the forecast concern again on Tuesday
associated with a cold front forecast to pass across Se Mi late
afternoon/evening. This front will be associated with a more
amplified mid level wave forecast across the northern Great Lakes
region. Deeply sheared profiles within moderate instability will
again support strong to severe convection. Warm and windy conditions
will also prevail in the prefrontal environment. Model soundings
indicate 30 to 35 knots in the mixed layer, which may result in wind
gusts approaching 40 MPH outside of any convection. Strong high
pressure will expand across the region in the wake of the front by
Wednesday, resulting in cooler and dry conditions.

&&

.MARINE...

Cold front has stalled over southern Lake Huron this afternoon, with
southerly winds to its south and northeast winds to its north. Main
marine concern this afternoon-evening is potential for strong to
severe thunderstorm development along the front and/or lake breezes
that have pushed inland from Saginaw Bay, Lake St. Clair, and Lake
Erie. All modes of severe weather are in play. Lingering
thunderstorms push north across Lake Huron tonight, although the
severe threat wanes after sunset. Unsettled conditions continue for
the first half of the week as warm and breezy southerly flow
supplies plenty of instability to the Great Lakes. Wind gusts for
the Lake Huron shoreline/Lake St. Clair approach 30 knots Monday-
Tuesday, although an isolated gale force gust over Saginaw Bay
Tuesday cannot be entirely ruled out. Small Craft Advisories are in
effect for Monday and will be needed again Tuesday. Strong to severe
thunderstorm chances exist both afternoons as well. A strong cold
front Tuesday night results in a pattern shift for mid-week,
bringing a quieter, more seasonable pattern to the Great Lakes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

AVIATION...

A warm front located between KFNT and KMBS will be the focus for
convective initiation this afternoon and evening, bringing the
chance to see scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Probabilities to
see thunderstorm activity will be higher across KMBS given the
location of the front, but will retain the TEMPO in KFNT until radar
and satellite imagery better define where initiation will take
place. Confidence for showers and thunderstorms will be much lower
for locations south, but cannot rule out some isolated development
within the warm sector. Confidence is too low to retain the PROB30
for thunderstorms at this time. Otherwise a 4-6kft cu field will
range from sct-bkn during daylight hours alongside mid to high based
cirrus from upstream activity.

D21/DTW Convection...There will be a chance (15-20%) for an isolated
thunderstorm between 20Z-24Z

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms this evening.

* Low for ceilings aob 5000ft this afternoon.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
947 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>062-181400-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
947 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening, mainly between 4 PM and 9 PM. The strongest storms will be
capable of producing wind gusts to 65 MPH, hail to one inch in
diameter and isolated tornadoes. Thunderstorm moving will be west to
east at 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The risk for severe weather exists again Monday and Tuesday mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours, with strong winds, large
hail and heavy rainfall possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Dispatchers...Please notify your emergency managers immediately.
Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-181400-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
947 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The potential exists for isolated thunderstorms to become severe
this afternoon and evening, capable of producing damaging wind gusts
to 60 mph and large hail. The severe weather risk will mainly be
confined to the north Detroit suburbs into Port Huron.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The risk for severe weather exists again Monday and Tuesday mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours, with strong winds, large
hail and heavy rainfall possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-181400-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
947 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. The
strongest storms are expected across Saginaw Bay and locations north
of Port Sanilac in Lake Huron. Wind gusts to 50 knots and hail to one
inch in diameter will be the main severe weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The risk for severe weather exists again Monday and Tuesday mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours, with strong winds, large
hail and heavy rainfall possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Dispatchers...Please notify your emergency managers immediately.
Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

SC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
354 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

MIZ047-172100-
Midland MI-
354 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MIDLAND COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM
EDT...

At 354 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alma, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Midland, Coleman, Sanford, Edenville, Oil City, Pleasant Valley,
Hope, Averill, Gordonville, Bombay, Porter Township, and North
Bradley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4381 8461 4381 8437 4383 8436 4383 8417
      4369 8417 4346 8449 4347 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 219DEG 34KT 4343 8471

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
421 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

MIZ049-055-172115-
Huron MI-Sanilac MI-
421 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SANILAC AND
SOUTHEASTERN HURON COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 421 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Argyle, or 9 miles west of Deckerville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Harbor Beach, Deckerville, Forestville, Argyle, Elmer, Helena,
Minden, Parisville, White Rock, Snover, Tyre, Ruth, and Palms.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4342 8293 4356 8309 4388 8262 4384 8259
      4362 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 230DEG 33KT 4354 8294

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
435 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

MIZ049-054-055-172200-
Huron MI-Tuscola MI-Sanilac MI-
435 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN TUSCOLA...NORTHWESTERN
SANILAC AND HURON COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 434 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Caro, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Caro, Bad Axe, Cass City, Sebewaing, Harbor Beach, Ubly, Caseville,
Port Austin, Akron, Port Hope, Pigeon, Elkton, Fairgrove, Unionville,
Kinde, Gagetown, Owendale, Ellington, Verona, and Colling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4407 8286 4402 8274 4398 8268 4388 8262
      4361 8301 4356 8310 4339 8346 4351 8363
      4375 8346 4394 8339 4395 8334 4400 8328
      4403 8310 4407 8304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 224DEG 32KT 4350 8346

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
442 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

MIZ049-055-172145-
Huron MI-Sanilac MI-
442 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SANILAC AND
SOUTHEASTERN HURON COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 442 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Argyle, or 7 miles northwest of Deckerville, moving northeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Forestville around 515 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Tyre, Ruth,
Parisville, Palms, Helena, White Rock, Minden, and Richmondville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4346 8289 4362 8302 4378 8269 4373 8257
      4357 8254
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 240DEG 15KT 4358 8287

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
450 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

MIZ053-172115-
Saginaw MI-
450 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SAGINAW COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 450 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Merrill, or near Freeland, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Freeland around 455 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Shields, Carrollton,
and Hemlock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4348 8429 4348 8417 4356 8417 4357 8416
      4357 8410 4354 8405 4352 8405 4352 8402
      4347 8392 4334 8419 4346 8437 4347 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 219DEG 29KT 4347 8423

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SC