Flood and Hail in Michigan, June 24, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
712 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms develop over the area today,
  persisting into Thursday morning. Greatest coverage of
  rainfall will be in the west half.

- Temperatures remain below normal until the end of the work
  week. The coolest high temperatures for the period are
  expected today.

- Above normal temperatures and increased humidity return early
  next week, along with periodic showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The onset of rain early this morning has been delayed as the track
of the frontal boundary associated with the incoming Clipper low
ended up further south than previously anticipated. While this will
eat into our rain totals for most of the area today into Thursday
morning, we still may see a few heavier rain showers and
thunderstorms today bring locally over an inch in some spots, mainly
in the west where the mid-level low looks to move overhead. Thus,
while the east could have some spots see only a few hundreths to
locally up to an inch, the west half is still generally going to
receive at least a tenth of an inch of liquid, with some spots
locally receiving an inch or more. While mostly cloudy skies look to
remain overhead today, with stronger lapse rates advecting into the
mid to lower levels by this afternoon, we could see up to around 1
kJ of SBCAPE develop over the western half. That being said, with
effective shear around 20 to at most 25 kts, no severe weather is
generally expected, although SPC does highlight a Marginal Risk
along and mainly just south of the U.P./WI border, particularly near
Menominee which is technically within the Marginal Risk. Therefore,
while severe weather is not expected across the area this afternoon
and evening, we could see a sub-severe stronger thunderstorm or two
that produces small hail and gusty winds over the U.P.

As the Clipper low leaves the Upper Great Lakes towards the St.
Lawrence Seaway tonight into Thursday, expect the convection chances
to dwindle with time tonight into Thursday, with most of the rain
done by Thursday morning. Given the rainfall and incoming weak high
pressure ridging from Canada to end the work week, some areas of fog
could develop over the U.P. tonight before eroding away by the mid
to late morning hours on Thursday; cannot rule out the fog being
dense in spots as low temperatures tonight could drop into the mid
40s in the coolest areas. While the system rainfall does appear to
be largely done by Thursday morning, diurnal heating and interaction
with the Lake Michigan lake breeze boundary could produce some
isolated light rain showers and non-severe thunderstorms near the
Lake Michigan shoreline Thursday afternoon. As the aforementioned
high pressure ridging builds in from Canada late this week, expect
drier weather to move back over us as we start the weekend.

Expect the below normal temperatures to continue today through the
work week; the coolest temperatures of the forecast period are
expected today as highs become limited to the mid to upper 60s
across most of the area. The exception where we could sneak into the
lower 70s looks to be in the far east via warmer air wrapping around
the Clipper low as it digs into the area. After today, expect the
temperatures to progressively climb each day, although remaining
below normal until the start of this weekend. As a mid to upper
level PacNW low moves into the northern Rockies this weekend, it
eventually lifts into the Canadian Prairies early next week. When it
does so, expect above normal temperatures to finally return to Upper
Michigan, with highs climbing into the 80s as early as Sunday. With
the upper-level pattern connecting us with the warm, moist air in
the Gulf, expect rain showers and thunderstorms to return as
shortwave lows lift through the area from time to time next week. In
addition, we could see highs get into the lower 90s by the end of
the forecast period (around the middle of next week).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 712 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VFR conditions this morning give way to deteriorating conditions as
a Clipper low brings -SHRA and TSRA to the area today into this
evening. With the arrival of the low along the WI border today,
expect MVFR to occasionally IFR cigs to move over IWD today, with
CMX and SAW remaining generally VFR unless a stronger SHRA/TSRA
moves overhead. However, expect conditions to improve at IWD late
this afternoon while SAW deteriorates down to MVFR as the low moves
towards Lower MI. Moving into the overnight hours, expect cigs and
vis to tank as some areas of fog potentially develop over the Yoop.
Given the light winds developing tonight due to weak ridging
building in from the north, thinking all of the terminals will drop
down to LIFR late tonight; would not be surprised if we went down to
airport mins or lower in some spots, especially if the fog
materializes.

Winds are expected from the SE and E ahead of the low, while turning
to the N behind it's passage today. By tonight, expect winds to
become very light/calm.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Light winds of 20 knots or less increase to E to NE gusts of 20 to
25 kts over the south central and western lake this afternoon as a
Clipper low moves through the Upper Midwest today. This low may also
bring some thunderstorms across the lake today. As the low continues
towards the St. Lawrence Seaway tonight into Thursday, expect the
thunderstorm chances and for the winds to slacken to 20 kts or less
once again. However, given the expected rainfall over the lake today
(as well as incoming weak high pressure ridging from Canada), some
marine fog could develop over the lake tonight and continue into
Thursday; some of the marine fog could be dense in spots. Will keep
an eye on the expected vis conditions tonight into Thursday in case
a Marine Dense Fog needs to be issued in the future.

Lake Superior looks to remain fairly quiet the rest of this week
into this weekend, until we see an upper-level pattern shift via a
PacNW low moving into the Northern Rockies this weekend before
lifting into the Canadian Prairies early next week. As that occurs,
a shortwave rotating around the upper-level low into the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest could increase E winds over the lake to 20 to
30 kts by Sunday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...TAP