Thunderstorms moving through Saginaw Bay produced wind gusts of 35 to 40 knots.
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The episode as NWS DTX wrote it up.
Thunderstorms moving through Saginaw Bay produced wind gusts of 35 to 40 knots.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 27, 5:33 PM EST, 12 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
633 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A period of wind gusts 40 to 50 MPH this evening.
- Showers and embedded thunderstorms this evening into early
tomorrow morning.
- Much colder air arrives by the end of the work week and holds
through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
A localized are of surface low pressure falls within the diminishing
region of showers has resulting in a brief duration of gusty winds
now tracking into Se Mi. Some subtle boundary layer decoupling
during the evening may allow some decrease in surface winds.
However, southerly winds around 2k feet are forecast to increase to
50 knots this evening and persist into the overnight. Given the
potential for some drop in sfc winds, this will remain supportive of
low level wind shear through the night. Subsidence in the wake of
the ongoing showers will suppress evening convection. Mid level
short wave passage and associated cold front along with some
instability advection will drive increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms overnight. Instability is forecast to be weaker across
Se Mi in comparison to locations to the west. In all likelihood,
convection is likely to decrease in intensity and coverage as it
tracks across Se Mi overnight through roughly 12Z Tuesday.
D21/DTW Convection...Clusters of thunderstorms are forecast to move
into the D21 airspace overnight. With less instability forecast,
there is the expectation that the coverage will decrease as the
showers move across the area. Current indications suggest the more
probable convective timing will be between 08Z and 12Z early Tues
morning.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Moderate for thunderstorms tonight.
* Moderate for ceilings aob 5000 feet after midnight, high Tuesday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026
DISCUSSION...
The transition from a mild, ridge-dominated pattern to a deep,
unseasonably cold regime remains the primary meteorological focus as
a massive 500mb closed low descends from Central Canada to stall
over the Great Lakes by the end of the work week. Immediate
attention centers on a robust moisture surge tonight, fueled by a
potent 45-60 kt Low-Level Jet (LLJ) ahead of a surface low tracking
toward Lake Superior. This surge will push PWAT values above 1.25
inches as an 850-700mb theta-e ridge traverses Southeast Michigan
around 06Z Tuesday. Despite this moisture, convective potential
tonight will be hampered by the diurnal minimum and a lack of
surface-based instability, likely resulting in a waning trend for
showers and elevated thunderstorms as they move east. This is
supported by latest HRRR and RRFS guidance, a trend further
supported by convection in the Ohio Valley effectively cutting off
the deeper Gulf moisture. Rainfall totals are forecast to average
between 0.20 and 0.50 inches, though steepening mid-level lapse
rates could support localized higher amounts in more persistent
elevated cores. The seasonably strong low (993 MB) tracking through
the Western Great Lakes and strong low level jet leads to some
concern winds could reach/exceed 45 MPH, as convectively induced
rise/fall pressure couplet approaches, but upstream trajectory
suggests the core strongest winds remain west-northwest of southeast
Michigan. Weakening of the line and arrival closer to sunset
expected to keep gusts in check, but will continue to monitor.
Following a brief period of drier air behind a Tuesday morning cold
front, attention shifts to a deepening surface low triggered by a
southern-stream shortwave lifting through the Ohio Valley Tuesday
night into Wednesday. While the bulk of this system's moisture will
remain to our south, favorable forcing and a sharpening deformation
zone should spread rain showers across the southern and eastern CWA
through Wednesday afternoon. As this wave exits, the 12Z ECMWF and
CMC show high confidence in the large-scale polar trough fully
capturing the Great Lakes, ushering in a prolonged period of cold air
advection with 850mb temperatures plunging into the mid to upper
single digits below zero Celsius by Friday. This setup will foster
steep lapse rates and significant lake-induced instability, resulting
in significant cloud cover and "small core" isolated showers of
rain, graupel, and wet snowflakes through Saturday. High temperatures
will struggle to reach the lower 50s (10 to 15 degrees below early
May normals). Frost/freeze potential during the night time/early
morning hours for the end of the work week and weekend.
MARINE...
High pressure influence breaks down today as a cluster of
thunderstorms rolls through the Ohio Valley. Most of the convective
activity associated with the mesoscale system will wane prior to
reaching the southern waterways, but a few rumbles of thunder cannot
be ruled out this evening. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will
track into the northern Great Lakes later this evening, centered
within a potent/expansive low-level wind field. Forecast soundings
across Lake Huron remain stable to the lake surface, but with flow
in excess of 40 knots within the lowest few hundred feet, opted for
a Gale Warning for the northern two thirds of Lake Huron. The period
of gales should be brief given the translation speed of the parent
wave, but latest model trends continue to support minor increases in
confidence for occasional gusts to gales. To further capitalize on
the energetic winds, additional convection is expected ahead of the
system's warm front which should surge all the way up to The
Straits. Elevated storms emerge ahead of the surface boundary, and
should augment the stability profiles. Small Craft Advisories remain
in effect for all nearshore waters until Tuesday due to elevated
winds/waves. Wind gusts could briefly approach gale-force for
Saginaw Bay and maybe The Thumb. The system's cold front then
crosses through the central Great lakes during the day on Tuesday,
leading to calmer weather and a shift to northwest flow as high
pressure builds in mid-week.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ361>363.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ421-422.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ441>443.
Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LCZ460.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ444.
&&
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......KGK
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 346 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-281015- Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer- St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- 346 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A period of wind gusts around 40 mph this evening. There is a chance of non-severe thunderstorms this evening and tonight, but a brief heavy downpour and winds gusts of 45-50 mph are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Frost/freeze conditions are possible Thursday night, Friday night, and Saturday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-281015- Lake St Clair- Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI- Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore- 346 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Huron and Lake St Clair. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Gale warning tonight into Tuesday morning for the northern two thirds of Lake Huron, with small craft advisories elsewhere. Refer to the latest forecasts for details. There is a chance of thunderstorms this evening and tonight producing wind gusts higher than 35 knots. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Small craft advisories continue on Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. Refer to the latest forecasts for details. You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. SF
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 514 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-272315- Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee- Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne- Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw, Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 514 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026 ...Strong Wind Gusts Possible This Evening... A localized area of rapid pressure falls across northern Indiana and southwest Lower Mi will move across Southeast Michigan this evening. Although the showers and isolated thunderstorms to the west are rapidly weakening and may not even affect all of Southeast Michigan, strong wind gusts are expected. While more widespread wind gusts of 30 to 35 MPH are likely, a few localized wind gusts up to 40 to 45 MPH will be possible. The strongest winds are expected between 6 PM and 10 PM. SC
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
546 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026
MIZ060-061-068-069-075-082-272300-
Shiawassee MI-Livingston MI-Lenawee MI-Genesee MI-Oakland MI-
Washtenaw MI-
546 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026
...SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT LENAWEE...NORTHWESTERN
OAKLAND... SHIAWASSEE...LIVINGSTON...SOUTHERN GENESEE AND WESTERN
WASHTENAW COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...
At 545 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers along a line
extending from 6 miles north of Laingsburg to near Homer to near
Reading. Movement was east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Owosso and Laingsburg around 550 PM EDT.
Perry and Corunna around 555 PM EDT.
Morrice around 600 PM EDT.
Bancroft around 605 PM EDT.
Durand and Lennon around 610 PM EDT.
Flushing, Fowlerville, Hudson, Addison, and Cement City around 615
PM EDT.
Swartz Creek, Byron, and Gaines around 620 PM EDT.
Flint, Cohoctah, Onsted, and Clayton around 625 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Manitou Beach-Devils
Lake, Plainfield, Ogden Center, Rankin, Canandaigua, Hudson Mills
Metropark, Ridgeway, Palmyra, Pleasant Lake, and Sand Creek.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4171 8436 4207 8436 4207 8413 4277 8416
4278 8437 4303 8437 4310 8432 4303 8346
4243 8384 4172 8383
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 253DEG 38KT 4298 8435 4220 8485 4178 8482
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SCSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
606 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026
MIZ068-069-075-076-082-083-272300-
Livingston MI-Lenawee MI-Monroe MI-Oakland MI-Washtenaw MI-Wayne MI-
606 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026
...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MONROE...WAYNE...EASTERN LENAWEE...
OAKLAND...SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON AND EASTERN WASHTENAW COUNTIES
THROUGH 700 PM EDT...
At 605 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers along a line
extending from Milan to Ida to Temperance. Movement was northeast at
30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Warren, Ann Arbor, Livonia, Troy, Southfield, Taylor, Pontiac, Novi,
Romulus, Monroe, Ypsilanti, Flat Rock, Saline, Brighton, Milford,
Holly, Milan, Grosse Pointe, Dundee, and Oxford.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4172 8383 4173 8383 4244 8384 4288 8355
4289 8310 4245 8308 4245 8287 4236 8293
4229 8310 4224 8313 4201 8313 4190 8325
4189 8331 4172 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 208DEG 24KT 4209 8365 4192 8359 4177 8357
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
KGKSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
632 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026
MIZ048-053-054-061-062-272330-
Bay MI-Tuscola MI-Genesee MI-Lapeer MI-Saginaw MI-
632 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026
...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TUSCOLA...LAPEER...BAY...EASTERN SAGINAW
AND NORTHERN GENESEE COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...
At 631 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers along a line
extending from near Zilwaukee to Frankenmuth to near Flint. Movement
was east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Flint, Saginaw, Midland, Bay City, Lapeer, Flushing, Davison,
Frankenmuth, Caro, Imlay City, Vassar, Almont, Clio, Cass City,
Auburn, Birch Run, Reese, Brown City, Pinconning, and Millington.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4391 8404 4390 8390 4370 8391 4362 8368
4373 8353 4373 8347 4367 8346 4367 8312
4337 8310 4329 8312 4328 8300 4289 8299
4288 8355 4303 8346 4306 8393 4321 8393
4357 8417 4399 8416 4399 8405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 258DEG 35KT 4349 8402 4333 8375 4304 8376
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
KGKThe Detroit radar (KDTX), 125 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:45 UTC.
2 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1329367, 1329368.