Flood in Kentucky, May 24, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
335 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
With low Flash Flood Guidance west and heating east, issued a
Flood Watch for Flash Flooding for all but far northeast
portions of the area through tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) A waffling front in / near the area and mid-level waves
  will keep clouds, showers, and the chance for mainly afternoon
  and evening thunderstorms, around through the balance of the
  Memorial Day weekend, as well as the first half of the
  upcoming work week. Rainfall could be locally heavy at times
  leading to flooding concerns, especially in areas that have
  recently received heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch for Flash
  Flooding has been issued for all but far northeast portions of
  the area through tonight to handle the current series of mid-
  level waves incoming.

- 2) The chance for showers and mainly afternoon and evening
  thunderstorms shifts southward Thursday through Friday, only
  to then possibly return northward again next weekend.

- 3) Temperatures hover above normal through the balance of the
  Memorial Day weekend and most of the upcoming short work week,
  before returning to near or slightly below normal on Friday
  into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mid-level flat waves cross the area through tonight, ahead of a
mid/upper-level short wave trough axis, which crosses first
thing Monday morning. A weak surface boundary oozes into the
area from the west, sort of occluding a warm front over the
area, both boundaries oriented roughly north-south.

As for parameters integrated vertically through the column,
saturation through the column and limited daytime heating per
widespread cloud cover yield PW values in excess of 1.7 inches
and modest CAPE maximizing at around 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg.
0-6/0-8 km bulk shear values range in the modest 30-40 kt range
with low level shear 20-30 kts can support stronger storms and,
at the very least, updrafts strong enough to leverage the high
moisture content into heavy downpours.

Rainfall has so far today been more closely tied to the mid-level
flat waves, but modest heating may also focus convective
initiation along the boundaries this afternoon and evening. The
Storm Prediction Center has the County Warning area in a general
thunderstorm outlook for today and tonight, while the Weather
Prediction Center has expanded their existing Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall over the middle Ohio Valley eastward into the
mountains, based on breaks in the cloud cover that have allowed
more heating there.

All in all, saturated ground and air, somewhat slow storm
motion, more than scattered precipitation coverage, and
increasing HREF/REFS probabilities of 3-hour Flash Flood
Guidance exceedance will contribute to the Flash Flood threat.
Flash Flood Guidance is lowest in the middle Ohio Valley,
particularly along and just west of the Ohio River, where 1 and
even 3 hour values are under an inch.

The short wave trough exiting Monday morning shifts the offshore
turns the mid/upper-level flow to the west to southwest, but
with the confluence zone between the northern and southern
streams over northern to central portions of the forecast area.
This allows another series of flat waves coming out of a
southern stream trough to move northeastward into the
confluence zone Monday, and then turn eastward through it
Monday night. With it and and lingering surface boundaries, the
potential for showers and mainly diurnally-driven thunderstorms
continues across mainly southern and central portions of the
area. All the rainfall will continue to need monitored for
possible excessive runoff through the end of the Holiday
weekend.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, the northern stream long wave trough
over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. lifts
out, allowing the confluence zone to shift north. This allows
the moistere-laden air mass to shift northward, and what is
left of the southern stream short wave trough to traverse the
area. This, in turn, brings th heavy rainfall threat back
northward as well.

With relatively light flow associated with the southern stream,
the severe threat is low, and the Storm Prediction Center
carries a southward-shifting general thunderstorm outlook.

The Weather Prediction Center limits the Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall to far southern portions of the area on Monday, before
shifting it northward again Tuesday through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A northern stream short wave trough and then a northern stream
low amplify the east-coast long-wave trough again, in tandem
with long-wave ridging building northwest of the forecast area
late Wednesday through Friday. This drives a west to east
oriented surface cold front southward into, if not through, the
area Thursday into Friday, shunting the moisture-laden air
mass, and hence the chance for mainly diurnal showers and
thunderstorms southward and, by Friday, perhaps south of the
forecast area entirely.

There is uncertainty as to whether the northern stream lifts out
or stays in place next weekend. The current forecast brings the
chance for showers and mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms back northward into the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures hover above normal through the balance of the
Memorial Day weekend and into the upcoming short work week,
especially on lows, with highs somewhat muffled amid the active
weather pattern. Temperatures then trend at least back down to
normal at the end of the work week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As showers become more widespread, ceilings lower to IFR and
visibility to IFR through this evening, already beginning in
portions of the middle Ohio Valley and in the mountains, and
then points in between. Thunderstorms are also possible through
this evening, but are not expected to be especially strong. IFR
conditions are likely under any thunderstorm.

In addition to IFR ceilings overnight, IFR visibility is
possible at times in heavier rain or fog. Monday will bring
improvement to VFR visibility, but only slow improvement on
ceilings, with IFR possibly improving to low MVFR by 18Z at
CKB, PKB and HTS.

Light south surface flow this afternoon will become light and
variable to calm tonight and Monday, amid multiple weak surface
boundaries in the area. Light to moderate southwest flow aloft
through tonight will become light northwest on Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGs and/or VSBY may oscillate from the
forecast depending on rainfall.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR remains possible at times from Monday afternoon into at
least Wednesday, with mainly afternoon and evening showers
and/or thunderstorms, as well as overnight fog and/or low
stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>031-033-034-039-515>522.
OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004.

&&

DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
452 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     Rain             1 NW Jackson            39.05N 82.64W
05/24/2026  M1.58 Inch       Jackson            OH   Trained Spotter

            Observed since 3 PM.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
500 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     Flood            1 SSE Junction City     39.71N 82.29W
05/24/2026                   Perry              OH   911 Call Center

            SR 668 is closed due to flooding.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
523 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

WVZ024-025-242200-
Logan WV-Mingo WV-
523 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN MINGO AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 522 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chattaroy, or near Williamson, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Williamson, Delbarton, Holden, South Williamson, Mount Gay-Shamrock,
Red Jacket, Chattaroy, Matewan, Verdunville, Chauncey, Myrtle,
Switzer, Dingess, Varney, Sarah Ann, Lenore, and Naugatuck.

This includes Route 119 between mile markers 1 and 27.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Heavy downpours could cause
rapid rises in water. If rising water is observed, move to higher
ground. Do not drive into areas covered by water.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3762 8216 3762 8218 3765 8218 3765 8219
      3763 8219 3763 8221 3766 8224 3766 8226
      3768 8230 3770 8230 3774 8233 3776 8231
      3776 8233 3778 8232 3780 8237 3793 8215
      3783 8200 3769 8196 3760 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 241DEG 15KT 3775 8226

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

11

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
603 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ENE Williamson        37.68N 82.25W
05/24/2026                   Mingo              WV   Trained Spotter

            3 large trees uprooted.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
606 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE Williamson         37.67N 82.26W
05/24/2026                   Mingo              WV   911 Call Center

            Large tree down.

&&