What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 20, 12:39 PM EST, 2 hours 1 minute earlier. Its key messages:
- 1.) Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will pose a primary threat of damaging wind gusts and localized flash flooding. 2.) A brief reprieve from the active weather is expected across northern areas on Thursday, with post-frontal temperatures dropping significantly into the upper 60s to low 70s. 3.) The frontal boundary lifts back north on Friday, bringing renewed chances for heavy rainfall and localized high water issues. Unsettled weather persists through the Memorial Day weekend.
Area forecast discussion, May 20, 12:39 PM EST, 2 hours 1 minute before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
139 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slight risk for severe and excessive rainfall this afternoon.
Risk for more robust convection does appear to be displaced a
slightly farther southeast than morning guidance due to morning
convection.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening will pose a primary threat of damaging wind gusts and
localized flash flooding.
2.) A brief reprieve from the active weather is expected across
northern areas on Thursday, with post-frontal temperatures
dropping significantly into the upper 60s to low 70s.
3.) The frontal boundary lifts back north on Friday, bringing
renewed chances for heavy rainfall and localized high water
issues. Unsettled weather persists through the Memorial Day
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers and thunderstorms from this morning have introduced
uncertainty regarding the extent of atmospheric recovery across
northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio this afternoon.
Consequently, convective initiation is anticipated to be
displaced slightly further southeast than initially suggested by
earlier high-resolution guidance. Despite modest mid-level lapse
rates, ongoing insolation and moisture pooling along and ahead
of an approaching cold front will yield moderate instability,
with Mixed-Layer CAPE values increasing to 1200-1800 J/kg. Deep
layer shear remains relatively weak, generally between 20 and
30 KTs, which will favor multicell clusters and perhaps some
transient supercells. The primary severe hazard this afternoon
will be damaging downburst winds, driven by steep low-level
lapse rates and elevated Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE). Gusts exceeding
40 to 45 mph could result in localized tree damage,
particularly given the fully leafed canopy with more substantial
damage possible in any true severe gusts.
In addition to the wind threat, localized flash flooding
remains a concern. Flow parallel to the frontal boundary will
encourage the training of convective cells. The environment is
characterized by deep warm cloud depths of 10-11kft and
precipitable water values climbing to around 1.7 inches, which
exceeds the 90th percentile for late May. Rainfall rates of 1 to
2 inches per hour are probable in the heaviest cores. Due to
largely dry antecedent conditions, much of the region can
tolerate up to 2.5 inches of rain over a short duration.
However, areas that received heavy rainfall this morning,
specifically Greenup and Carter counties in northeast Kentucky,
as well as urban centers and steep, V-shaped hollows, will be
susceptible to rapid runoff and flash flooding. A Flash Flood
Warning or two may be required for the most persistent
downpours, but the localized nature of the threat precludes the
need for a broader Flash Flood Watch at this time.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
The cold front will push southeastward tonight, causing
remaining showers and thunderstorms to become confined to the
southern coalfields and southwest Virginia Thursday morning.
Subsidence and a cooler, drier airmass will overspread the
northern half of the forecast area, providing a temporary dry
(or mainly dry) period. Post-frontal cold advection will result
in a notable temperature drop, with daytime highs on Thursday
struggling to reach 70 degrees F across the lowlands, which is
well below normal.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
The aforementioned boundary will stall to the south and lift
back north as a warm front on Friday, placing the region firmly
within the unsettled warm sector. This will mark the beginning
of a wet and active Memorial Day weekend. Friday is expected to
be the wettest day of the period as isentropic ascent increases
over the boundary. Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are expected through Monday, driven by shortwave energy riding
along the periphery of a Bermuda high. Depending on where the
heaviest rain falls today, antecedent soil conditions may
become compromised, leading to a conditional risk for high water
and flash flooding Friday into the weekend with any additional
heavy rainfall.
Widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated through
the holiday weekend, as atmospheric instability is forecast to
remain generally weak, with only periodic upticks in deep-layer
shear. Unseasonably warm temperatures will return by Sunday and
Monday, although values will remain below the record heat
observed earlier this week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mix of VFR and localized IFR to LIFR conditions is expected
this afternoon and evening. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of an approaching
cold front. Direct impacts from thunderstorms may produce brief
periods of IFR visibility and gusty, erratic winds, primarily
between 18Z and 02Z. Outside of convection, southwesterly winds
of 5 to 10 KTs will prevail ahead of the front.
Following the frontal passage tonight, winds will shift to the
northwest and north. Low-level moisture trapped beneath the
developing subsidence inversion will likely result in widespread
MVFR to IFR ceilings across the region, especially after 06Z.
Patchy dense fog is also possible in areas that receive heavy
rainfall and manage to clear out, particularly in the deeper
river valleys. Conditions will slowly improve to VFR from north
to south after 14Z Thursday as drier air works into the region.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low for convective impact timing,
otherwise medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions associated with convection
will vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M L H H H M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H M H M L H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions conditions continue southeast Thursday afternoon.
Brief IFR is also possible at times Friday through the weekend
with showers and/or thunderstorms.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 20, 12:29 PM EST, 2 hours 11 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
129 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
WVZ030-039-201745-
Upshur WV-Lewis WV-
129 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LEWIS AND CENTRAL
UPSHUR COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...
At 129 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rock Cave, or 9 miles southwest of Buckhannon, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Buckhannon, Rock Cave, Tallmansville, and French Creek.
This includes Route 33 between mile markers 15 and 16.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3881 8036 3892 8041 3900 8018 3883 8012
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 262DEG 23KT 3888 8035
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
01Special weather statement, May 20, 1:36 PM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
236 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
OHZ087-WVZ006-201900-
Lawrence OH-Cabell WV-
236 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL CABELL COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
At 236 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Proctorville, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Huntington, Proctorville, Barboursville, Athalia, Green Bottom, and
Pea Ridge.
This includes Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 10
and 22.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3858 8225 3837 8221 3834 8241 3835 8242
3849 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 259DEG 8KT 3842 8237
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
01Special weather statement, May 20, 1:41 PM EST, 59 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
241 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
KYZ105-201900-
Lawrence KY-
241 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
At 241 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Martha, or near Blaine, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Blaine and Martha.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
This storm could intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3802 8301 3809 8284 3799 8264 3795 8281
3797 8284 3798 8288 3800 8294 3800 8296
3796 8299 3797 8302 3799 8303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 235DEG 20KT 3798 8290
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
01Special weather statement, May 20, 1:47 PM EST, 53 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
247 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
KYZ101>103-105-201900-
Boyd KY-Greenup KY-Carter KY-Lawrence KY-
247 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BOYD...NORTHWESTERN
LAWRENCE...SOUTH CENTRAL GREENUP AND SOUTHEASTERN CARTER COUNTIES
THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
At 247 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Grayson Lake State Park, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Grayson, Grayson Lake State Park, Webbville, Denton, Rush, Grahn,
Hopewell, Willard, and Hitchins.
This includes Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 166 and
180.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3845 8284 3821 8268 3816 8292 3817 8292
3817 8298 3819 8299 3819 8301 3820 8301
3820 8304 3818 8305 3822 8308 3824 8314
3826 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 242DEG 23KT 3822 8303
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
01Special weather statement, May 20, 1:59 PM EST, 41 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
259 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-201930-
Boyd KY-Greenup KY-Carter KY-Lawrence KY-Lawrence OH-Wayne WV-
Cabell WV-
259 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BOYD...LAWRENCE...SOUTH CENTRAL
GREENUP...SOUTHEASTERN CARTER...SOUTH CENTRAL LAWRENCE...SOUTHWESTERN
CABELL AND NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...
At 259 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Grayson Lake State Park, moving northeast at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Huntington, Ashland, Grayson, Louisa, Wayne, Chesapeake, Blaine,
Beech Fork State Park, Cannonsburg, Grayson Lake State Park,
Yatesville Lake State Park, Kenova, Catlettsburg, Ceredo, Fort Gay,
Webbville, Princess, Coalton, Denton, and Burnaugh.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 164 and 191.
Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 1 and 11.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3829 8317 3853 8248 3821 8229 3796 8281
3800 8294 3800 8296 3796 8299 3797 8301
3799 8303 3804 8300 3805 8296 3811 8289
3817 8292 3817 8298 3820 8301 3820 8304
3818 8305 3822 8308 3826 8316
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 242DEG 23KT 3821 8297
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
01Special weather statement, May 20, 2:33 PM EST, 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
333 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
WVZ006-007-014-202000-
Mason WV-Cabell WV-Putnam WV-
333 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MASON...NORTHEASTERN
CABELL AND WESTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...
At 333 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Culloden, or 9 miles north of Hamlin, moving east
at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Nitro, Winfield, Hurricane, Milton, Eleanor, Ona, Culloden, Teays
Valley, and Fraziers Bottom.
This includes Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 22
and 44.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3861 8190 3844 8182 3840 8190 3837 8191
3835 8205 3837 8205 3838 8207 3837 8210
3835 8212 3833 8221 3851 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 284DEG 21KT 3842 8209
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
01