A surface cold front draped across the southern tier of Pennsylvania began to shift further south and east during the afternoon and evening hours of May 20, 2026. This served as a lifting mechanism in an unstable airmass with 1500 to 2000 J/kg of CAPE across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and favorable bulk shear.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A surface cold front draped across the southern tier of Pennsylvania began to shift further south and east during the afternoon and evening hours of May 20, 2026. This served as a lifting mechanism in an unstable airmass with 1500 to 2000 J/kg of CAPE across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and favorable bulk shear. Showers and storms began to form and upscale growth allowed for strong-to-severe storms to continue into south-central and southeastern Pennsylvania with tree damage being the main hazard observed within these storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 20, 12:13 PM EST, 25 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 113 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Risk for severe storms over the southern half of Pennsylvania has increased with a Severe Thunderstorm watch in effect until 00Z. * Reiterating bearish trend for max temps Friday and Saturday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over the southern tier of CPA this afternoon/evening 2) Major cooldown to close out the week and start Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall over 1 inch Friday and Saturday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over the southern tier of CPA this afternoon/evening The surface cold front currently over the northern tier of Pennsylvania will advance south and east across CPA today before stalling out to the south of the MD line tonight into Thursday. Convective initiation is already being observed over southern PA along the MD/PA boarder ahead of the front. Moist and unstable air ahead of the cold front combined with increasing low level convergence will lead to additional thunderstorm development as we move through the afternoon across the southeast 1/2 to 1/3 of the forecast area. The atmosphere is continuing to destablize with CAPE between 1500 and 2000 j/kg over the lower Susquehanna Valley and Seven Mountains. Steep low level laps rates along with sufficient 0-6km shear and previously mentioned instability should support a few stronger storms with potential for severe wind gusts and isolated hail. SPC has upgraded portions of our CWA to a D1 Slight risk over the south, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 00Z tonight. HREF/REFS also indicate potential for locally heavy rainfall >1" near the MD line as showers and storms likely persist through the evening into the overnight period across the southern tier of CPA. ----------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Major cooldown to close out the week and start Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall over 1 inch Friday and Saturday Relief from the early season heat wave arrives in earnest on Thursday with max temps 20-30 degrees lower vs. Wednesday across the LSV. Strong high pressure slides from the Lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast to close out the week. Model data shows the high channeling southward down the east-side of the Appalachians, setting up a cold air damming (CAD) event heading into Memorial Day weekend. Increasing CAD signal strength enhanced by moderately strong east/southeast low level flow and soaking rainfall has prompted a considerable bearish/lower adjustment to max temps Friday and Saturday. In fact, highs on Saturday are near daily record lows at several locations (mini/max). Guidance may be too optimistic in rebounding temps Sunday into Monday, but opted to keep baseline NBM for now. That said, the trend will be to moderate warmer with steadier rain giving way to more showery conditions for the unofficial start of summer. NBM/WPC QPF continues to show widespread 48hr rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch range Friday-Saturday. The cool/stable air will cap rates with longer duration helping to mitigate flooding risk in most areas. The forecast rainfall is much needed over the far south central/southeastern counties who remain under D1-D2 moderate to severe drought conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The MCS across western PA this evening has largely decayed, with the main flight impacts being brief westerly wind gusts around 20-25 kts & spotty showers for the Central Mountains (primarily KAOO/KUNV) through 07-08Z Wednesday. Ceilings are expected to lower NW-SE as a cold front approaches, with highest confidence in restrictions at KBFD/KJST. Downsloping W/NW winds are expected to limit the extent of ceiling restrictions to MVFR elsewhere, with improvements to VFR after the front passes during the evening. There is high (~70-80%) confidence on SHRA/TSRA reforming during the late morning to early afternoon hours (mainly after 16Z) with increasing coverage into the evening hours. Current SHRA mentions have been included at all terminals based on recent forecast/HREF/GLAMP model guidance with most uncertainty with respect to timing. In terms of TSRA coverage, the highest potential at this time is outlined across SE PA (MDT/LNS) where HREF highlights SBCAPE upwards of around 1000 J/kg, though SBCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg may support TSRA across KJST/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT as well, with PROB30s added to address this possibility. Locally gusty winds are possible as well given low- level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km in the afternoon, though confidence is low regarding the extent and strength of wind gusts. Winds shift northerly behind the frontal passage this evening, with anafrontal rain developing across South/East PA during the evening/overnight hours. Outlook... Thu...Lingering showers across S PA, restrictions possible. Fri...Restrictions likely with rain moving in from south to north, lasting into Fri night. Sat-Sun...Restrictions likely with rain. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Bowen KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Bowen DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Bowen AVIATION...Beaty/Teare
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 1244 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-037-041-042-045-046-049-051- 211645- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union- Montour- 1244 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for this afternoon. A few of these storms could be strong and contain damaging wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ026>028-033>036-050-052-053-056>059-063>066-211645- Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Snyder- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 1244 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1151 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026
PAZ034-201615-
Bedford PA-
1151 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 1215 PM EDT...
At 1151 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northeast of Cumberland, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clearville, Lake Gordon, Inglesmith, Hyndman, and Rainsburg.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3973 7871 3985 7872 3993 7833 3974 7836
3972 7838 3972 7852
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 267DEG 23KT 3977 7861
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
BaucoSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1215 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
PAZ034-035-201645-
Bedford PA-Fulton PA-
1215 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BEDFORD AND
SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM EDT...
At 1215 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles west of Hancock, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Inglesmith and Barnes Gap.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3973 7856 3984 7856 3990 7824 3972 7825
3972 7854
TIME...MOT...LOC 1615Z 267DEG 23KT 3977 7848
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
BaucoSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1245 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
PAZ034-035-201715-
Bedford PA-Fulton PA-
1245 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BEDFORD AND SOUTHERN
FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT...
At 1244 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hancock to 18 miles south of Breezewood to
15 miles north of Paw Paw. Movement was east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Warfordsburg, Big Cove Tannery, Needmore, Barnes Gap, Inglesmith, and
Locust Grove.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
south central Pennsylvania.
&&
LAT...LON 3984 7854 3991 7796 3982 7801 3973 7809
3972 7854
TIME...MOT...LOC 1644Z 273DEG 30KT 3979 7825 3975 7836 3975 7847
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
BaucoThe Sterling radar (KLWX), 93 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:39 UTC.
17 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked down multiple trees and wires along Welsh Run Road and Mercersburg Road approximately 3 miles east-southeast of Claylick.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked down trees and wires in Upton along Lemar Road and Buchanan Trail West.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked down multiple large trees along Grant Shook Road between Filer Road and Worleytown Road.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked multiple trees down across Hanover Borough.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 70 mph blew the roof off of a barn and knocked down trees and wires on Prescott Road between Birch Road and Fox Road in South Lebanon Township.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked multiple trees down onto Gold Mine Road near Tower City. Multiple cars were stuck on the road as a result of the downed trees.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked down multiple trees and power lines throughout Red Lion.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked trees and wires down on Rohrerstown Road in East Hempfield Township.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked a large tree down onto two vehicles, blocking the intersection of Janet Avenue and Fountain Avenue in Manheim Township. The storm also knocked down trees and power lines throughout the surrounding area.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked a tree onto a house near the city of Lancaster.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked a tree down onto a house in the 500 block of Bull Run Road near East Prospect. The storm also knocked down power lines in the area which started a fire that resulted in a road closure.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked a tree down onto Schuylkill Mountain Road near Schuylkill Haven.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked down trees and wires along Long Level Road in Lower Windsor Township.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked trees and wires down onto Pine Grove Road in Bethel Township.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked trees and wires down at the intersection of Charlestown Road and PA 741 north of Millersville.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked down trees and power lines throughout Paradise.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked down trees and power lines near the intersection of Snake Lane and Old Philadelphia Pike approximately 3 miles north of Gap.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1333018, 1333020, 1333025, 1333026, 1333027, 1333029, 1333035, 1333039, 1333040, 1333041, 1333037, 1333030, 1333038, 1333032, 1333042, 1333045, 1333046.