A line of strong to severe thunderstorms swept through northeast Kentucky during the predawn hours of March 16th in response to a passing cold front. Downed trees and power lines were observed in Boyd and Lawrence Counties as a result of these stronger storms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RLX wrote it up.
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms swept through northeast Kentucky during the predawn hours of March 16th in response to a passing cold front. Downed trees and power lines were observed in Boyd and Lawrence Counties as a result of these stronger storms. Outside of thunderstorms, a period of strong synoptic winds accompanying this disturbance took place. Surface winds picked up in intensity in the wake of the storms and remained elevated into the morning hours of the 16th. The strongest observation of these winds in northeast Kentucky were noted shortly after the round of storms swept through between 4 and 4:30 AM, where Mesonet stations and the AWOS in Ashland recorded winds ranging from 35 to 42 miles per hour. As high pressure built in from the west on the 16th, gradient winds diminished.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 16, 2:20 AM EST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
320 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The line of convection approaching our western flank early this
morning appeared to be mostly below severe limits, but that
portion of the line farther south, approaching out southwestern
flank, were maintaining at least a wind threat.
Winter weather advisories have been issued for the higher
mountainous terrain for this afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A strong cold front associated with a deepening low
pressure system cutting up through the Great Lakes whips
across the area first thing this morning, with strong to
possibly severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and some potential
for rotation.
- 2) Colder rushing in behind the front may lead to a flash
freeze in the mountains this evening, and bring well below
normal and below freezing temperatures through Wednesday
morning with an agricultural hard freeze. It will also support
snow as a flat wave moves up along the cold front east of the
area this afternoon. Cloud temperatures in the low level
moisture in the warp- around upslope flow will be low enough
for favored dendritic growth in snow showers tonight into
Tuesday.
- 3) A quieter weather pattern settles in for the latter half
of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A strong, deepening low pressure system cutting up through the
Great Lakes this morning, with its central pressure falling
through the 980s MB, features blizzard conditions on its
northwest side over the midwest and upper Great Lakes, and
Severe thunderstorms along and just ahead of its cold front
extending southward from the center.
The cold front, and associated line of convection, was steaming
eastward toward the forecast area early this morning, and SPC
has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watches 61 and 62 on our western
and southwestern flanks, respectively. Watch 61 expires at 08z
while 62 expires 11Z thus morning.
The moist adiabatic sounding ahead of the line barely has CAPE
associated with it, 200-400 kj/kg, but 0-1, 0-2 and 0-3 km bulk
shear increases to as high as the deep layer, 0-6 and 0-8 km
bulk shear, into the 50s to around 60, just ahead of the cold
front, including low level direction shear due to warm advection
veering with height (SRH values 500-700). This was sustaining
bowing line segments within the larger-scale thunderstorm band
ahead of an advancing cold front, at least south of the Ohio
River. This will focus the risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph),
with a brief tornado possible, mainly near the strongest and
more persistent mesovortices, early this morning, and possibly
into the daylight morning hours.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Much colder air arriving in the wake of the cold front will
send temperatures plummeting from the 50s through the 40s and
30s today, getting below freezing mid to late afternoon today,
and then dropping well down into the 20s tonight.
The large mid/upper level trough associated with this system
will generate a flat wave along the front east of the area this
afternoon, reinvigorating precipitation which will change to
snow with the colder air coming in. The wave should move on by
this evening, allowing only several hours of snowfall, but a
heavier band could accelerate temperatures down to or even a bit
below freezing, locally enhancing snowfall accumulations.
Wrap around upslope snow showers will follow tonight. Cloud
temperatures in the teens below zero C will favor dendritic
growth, and these snow showers could set up in bands, also
locally enhancing snowfall accumulations.
Temperatures drop well below freezing tonight and Tuesday
night, in the 10s to around 20, and top out barely if any above
freezing across the lowlands on Tuesday, with teens and 20s in
the mountains. This relatively long-duration early spring
freeze, Monday night through Wednesday morning, poses a
significant hazard to adventurous gardeners and any early-season
vegetation that has emerged during the recent warm pattern.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
The weather pattern then settles down for the later half of the
week, with a return to a relatively warmer pattern as the
region rides the northwest to southeast oriented baroclinic
zone heading mid-week on. The details in this pattern are
relatively low with any small disturbance passing atop the
baroclinic zone likely to produce at least some showers. Not
yet coded, precipitation is possible out of a mid cloud deck in
warm advection Wednesday, and a mainly slight chance for rain
showers beyond that, including the possible approach of a weak
cold front late week as the baroclinic zone wavers.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ceilings and visibilities are expected to lower to MVFR/IFR as
heavy rain, and possibly thunderstorms, accompany a cold front
across the area this morning. MVFR/IFR flight could occur again as
rain showers transition to snow this afternoon. The snow will
then evolve into snow showers this evening, and become
increasingly confined to the mountains tonight into Tuesday.
The snow showers and associated restrictions will become
increasingly scattered and brief.
Gusty winds are expected to continue through the majority of the
TAF period, with strongest winds occurring during the frontal
passage this morning, with winds shifting from the south to
southwest early this morning, to the southwest behind the front
later this morning, and then west this afternoon. Strong south
flow aloft ahead of the cold front early this morning will
become moderate southwest behind it later this morning, and the
moderate west later this afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/timing thunderstorms may vary from
the forecast. Timing of transition from rain to snow may also
vary. Strong, gusty winds will fluctuate.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in snow showers overnight Monday night into Tuesday,
mainly in the mountains.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>522-524-525.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
Tuesday for WVZ520-522-523-525-526.
Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ523-526.
OH...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003-004.
&&
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRMThe Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 82 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:24 UTC.
3 strong wind, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
In Winslow, a tree fell onto power lines along Robin Lynn Drive.
A tree and power line were blown down along Harley Drive south of Louisa.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, March 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1326669, 1326671, 1326663, 1326664, 1326665.