Hail in Kansas, April 3, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
158 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Line of strong to severe storms will continue to track
  southeast this evening along a cold front.

- Cooler for Saturday with warmer temps for both Sunday and
  Monday

- Gusty south winds for Wednesday along with very high to
  extreme fire danger.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low tracking along the
Nebraska/SD border. Meanwhile, a cold front is surging through
the Plains and currently extends from nw MO to near Wichita and
down into western OK.

Cold front will continue tracking southeast this evening with storms
developing along it. Still thinking the stronger storms will be
capable of hail up to quarter size and damaging winds in the 60-70
mph range. This will mainly be due to ML CAPE values around
2,000J/KG and effective deep layer shear in the 30-40kt range. Still
looking for storms to be exiting southeast KS in the 9-11pm range.

By Sat morning, upper low will be moving across MN with cold front
moving through the Arklatex region. Over the Plains, high pressure
will be working-in from the northwest providing plenty of sun, but
slightly below normal temps, with highs topping out around 60.
Normal highs for this time of year are in the low to mid 60s.
Northwest flow aloft will be in place for Sunday through Monday with
models still agreeing on a mid level baroclinic zone sinking south
across Nebraska into northeast KS on Monday, with strong warm
advection across it. Still thinking the bulk of the rain associated
with this feature should stay north and northeast of the forecast
area for Mon into Mon night.

For Wednesday, medium range models agree on tracking some shortwave
energy out of southern Alberta, across the Northern Rockies and into
the Northern Plains by Wednesday afternoon. This will flatten out
the upper flow and allow for low pressure to quickly strengthen over
eastern CO/western KS and a cold front to surge south across the
Central Plains. This setup will provide strong return flow and warm
temps for Wednesday along with elevated fire danger. Front will also
provided some chances for rain for the Wednesday night through
Friday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

An active period is anticipated for aviation interests over the
next 12 hours.

As of 1730Z, a cold front was located along a KSLN-KHUT-KANY
line and quickly progressing eastward. Showers and storms are
developing along the cold front and should become more numerous
as the front continues to progress eastward. Storm chances will
sharply come to an end for KICT by 21Z, and portions of the
Flint Hills and southeast Kansas may see storms between 21Z to
03Z this afternoon and night. After 03Z, lingering showers and
storms will gradually exit southeast Kansas as the front exits
the region.

Ahead of the frontal boundary, surface winds are fairly gusty
with sustained winds around 20 knots and gusts between 30 and 35
knots. Behind the frontal boundary, winds will be out of the
northwest at around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 to 25
knots. There may be a brief period of light winds during the
morning hours on Saturday, but winds should increase by the late
morning or early afternoon hours.

In general, VFR conditions should dominate the region after 06Z
tonight across the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Very high fire danger will be in place across central KS each
afternoon for Saturday, Monday and Tuesday. For Wednesday, very fire
danger will be in place area wide with extreme values over
central KS.

Gusty northwest winds will result in some pockets of very high fire
danger over central KS for Sat afternoon.  For Monday and Tuesday
afternoons, gusty south and southeast winds will elevate the
grassland fire danger into the very high category for central KS.
Afternoon RH values on both of these days will be in the 25-35%
range.

For Wednesday, south winds will continue to ramp-up with with gusts
in the 30-40 mph range likely. Look for afternoon RH values to be in
the 30-40% range. This will provide widespread very high fire danger
with extreme over central KS where moisture has been minimal over
the last several days and grasses remain fairly cured.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
442 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-040945-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
442 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong and severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along a
southeastward moving cold front this afternoon and evening.
Locations along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike will have the
best chance for storms. The strongest activity could produce 60-70
mph winds and quarter sized hail. Heavy rain may aggravate ongoing
river flooding in parts of southeast Kansas.

A very high grassland fire danger will develop over central Kansas
behind the cold front with northwest winds gusting over 30 mph at
times this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A very high grassland fire danger will return to central Kansas on
Saturday during the afternoon hours.

A very high grassland fire danger will also be possible each day
from Monday through Thursday across central and parts of south
central Kansas.

Extreme grassland fire danger is possible on Wednesday for central
and parts of south central Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across the Flint Hills and
southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict