Drought in Kansas, April 28 to 30, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1206 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly in Colorado,
  with a low probability of producing marginally severe hail up
  to quarter sized.

- Fog, perhaps dense, and frost is possible Tuesday night into
  Wednesday morning.

- Scattered showers and storms again on Wednesday, but with low
  probabilities of severe due to lack of instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Scattered showers will continue to lift northeast out of
Colorado through the overnight associated with a shortwave
trough. May see a brief lull around 12z as initial activity
moves into central Nebraska, but models show some redevelopment
by 18z further south which will keep precipitation chances going
in the Nebraska/Kansas border area before finally moving east
by mid afternoon. Meanwhile, another disturbance moves through
in the afternoon with some phasing of northern and southern
stream shortwaves occurring over the area. Isolated
thunderstorms are forecast by the CAMs by around 21z in
northeast Colorado which will move southeast with the mean flow.
Environment will be similar to the past few days, namely low
CAPE/high shear, with meager instability values of 100-200 j/kg.
Deep layer shear of 50-60 kts may somewhat compensate and
storms may briefly produce marginally severe hail, but coverage
will be very isolated, ending by 01-02z with loss of surface
heating and as the upper support moves out. Tuesday night,
models show fog developing east of a Wray, Colorado, to Hoxie,
Kansas, line after 06z and persisting to about 15z Wednesday
morning. Fog may be dense in those areas.

For Wednesday, still in the confluent area of northern and
southern streams with embedded waves in both, which will be
enough for scattered afternoon shower and thunderstorm
development. Starting time appears a bit earlier, as early as
18z, and continuing through the evening hours. Lack of
instability will still be a problem for organized updrafts, with
most models showing less than 500 j/kg, except the NAMnest
which shows 500-1000 j/kg but is probably overdone. Shear
continues to be sufficient, anywhere from 40-60 kts, so can't
completely rule out a low severe threat, mainly hail, with DCAPE
still on the low side suggesting wind will be unlikely.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal both days, with highs
in the 50s on Tuesday and 60s on Wednesday. Lows will be in the
low to mid 30s, so there may be some patchy frost.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 716 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Thursday, our region is forecast in a southwest upper-level flow
downstream of a trough in the western CONUS. This will allow multiple
shortwaves to traverse through the region bringing chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range
from 44-87% Thursday, with the southwest portion of the area on the
higher end. Rain is expected in the morning and weak instability may
support thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thunderstorm potential
diminishes after sundown, but overnight showers are likely with PoPs
ranging from 20-65% overnight Thursday into Friday. Temperatures are
forecast to be unseasonably cool with highs forecast in the mid 50s
to low 60s.

We remain in a southwest upper-level flow for Friday, though it is
weaker overall. Several shortwave passages and weak instability will
bring chances for showers and afternoon thunderstorms. PoPs of
25-55% are forecast for the northern and western county warning
area (CWA). Temperatures remain unseasonably cool with high
temperatures forecast in the high 50s to low 60s.

Going in to the weekend, we transition to more of a ridge pattern.
Expect mostly sunny skies and high temperatures forecast in the 70s
for Saturday and Sunday. Elevated fire weather conditions are
possible for a few hours Sunday. Relative humidity (RH) values are
forecast in the high teens with winds gusts around 25 mph possible
for the western CWA. RH values will likely change in response to
showers and thunderstorms earlier in the week, but still something
to monitor for as the week progresses. Monday, we have potential for
a active pattern returning due to a low pressure system off the west
coast. GEFS Ensemble members greatly vary on the track and intensity
of this system, so low confidence on specifics at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Scattered showers will move across the area for the remainder of
the overnight and into Tuesday morning. There is a low
probability (less than 20%) of either KGLD or KMCK being
impacted by brief visibility reductions. Low clouds will develop
at both terminals later in the overnight with MVFR and
occasionally IFR ceilings by 12z. The ceilings will slowly lift
Tuesday morning at KGLD, but persist into the afternoon at KMCK.
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms have a low probability (less
than 10%) of impacting KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...024

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1221 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-290630-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-
Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-
Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1221 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026 /121 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Patchy dense fog is forecast to develop late night, mainly east of a
Wray, Colorado, to Hoxie, Kansas, line. Visibility may be limited to
a half mile or less at times, which will reduce the reaction time
for motorists.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Patchy dense fog may persist through about 9 AM MDT/10 AM CDT/
Wednesday morning before dissipating.

Frost is forecast to develop across portions of the area early
Wednesday morning. Should frost develop then sensitive vegetation
could be injured or even killed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight.