Hail and Heavy Rain in Kansas, April 17, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
334 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) Risk of severe thunderstorms along
  and northwest of the Interstate 44 corridor, and a Moderate (4
  of 5) Risk clipping our northwest counties exists tonight.

- If supercells develop, Large hail to the size of tennis balls
  and tornadoes will all be a concern, especially west of I-49.
  Otherwise, a line of storms is likely with the primary hazard
  being damaging winds up to 70-80 mph, potentially higher
  within the Moderate Risk.

- Thunderstorms should move into southeast Kansas and western
  Missouri as early as 4-6 PM but more likely after 6 PM. Storms
  will then move southeast and reach the I-44 corridor by 8-11
  PM. Storms should then weaken as they move southeast of I-44
  after midnight, ending before sunrise Saturday.

- Flood Watch in effect Friday night for locations along and
  northwest of the Interstate 44 corridor. Rainfall amounts of
  1-2 inches are likely (>60% chance) with a few isolated
  amounts of 3-5 inches, especially in the Stockton to Truman
  Lake region.

- Much cooler temperatures and dry conditions are expected for
  the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Low
  temperatures in the low to middle 30s Saturday night could
  cause frost formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

If you are looking for the what, when, where communications for
the upcoming severe risk, you've come to the right place! If you
are looking for all the scientific jargon regarding the "why" of
the severe risk, continue to the "Mesoscale Details" section
below.

What - Enhanced to Moderate Risk for severe weather tonight:

Ample instability and shear are in place for widespread severe
weather chances this evening into tonight, mainly along and
northwest of I-44 where the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) to Moderate
(Level 4 of 5) Risk exists.

The coverage and intensity of the hazards vary by geographic
location from northwest to southeast. In general, the primary
hazard is damaging wind gusts up to 60-80 mph across the area,
particularly northwest of I-44. Secondary hazards include brief,
spin-up tornadoes along the line, and a conditional risk for
large hail up to golf balls to tennis balls if discrete
supercells develop.

The primary hazard is expected to be damaging winds up to 70-80
mph (potentially higher northwest of a Fort Scott, KS to
Warsaw line), generally diminishing as the line proceeds
southeast of I-44. This is due to the primary expectation for
storms currently developing over south-central Kansas to congeal
into a line as it moves eastward. Due to the line spanning the
large region, your chance for damaging wind gusts reach 45-59%
within 25 miles of your given community along and northwest of a
Pittsburg, KS to Osage Beach line.

Additionally, flash and river flooding will be possible along
and northwest of I-44 where storms are expected to train a bit,
putting down total rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches, with
localized amounts up to 3-5 inches.

When/Where:

The primary hazard is expected to be damaging winds up to 70-80
mph (potentially higher northwest of a Fort Scott, KS to
Warsaw line), generally diminishing as the line proceeds
southeast of I-44. This is due to the primary expectation for
storms currently developing over south-central Kansas to congeal
into a line as it moves eastward. Due to the line spanning the
large region, your chance for damaging wind gusts reach 45-59%
within 25 miles of your given community along and northwest of a
Pittsburg, KS to Osage Beach line. The wind gust hazard has
potential peak gusts at 60-80 mph northwest of I-44, then up to
60 mph southeast of I-44.

The secondary hazard of brief spin-up tornadoes exists across
the whole areas as the line progresses west to east. The
greatest chance, though, exists along and northwest of I-44
where better shear is in place.

Regarding the secondary conditional scenario, if supercells are
able to develop, large hail up to golf balls to tennis balls
would be posisble along with tornadoes. This conditional hazard
looks most likely to occur in extreme southeast Kansas into west-
central Missouri, generally between 4-7 PM.

Flash and river flooding will be possible along and northwest
of I-44 where storms are expected.

Potential Impacts:

With the primary hazard being potentially destructive wind
gusts, anywhere where the line produces 70-80 mph winds would
allow for trees to be uprooted, branches to be snapped, power
lines to be downed leading to power outages, varying structural
damage to barns, homes, and businesses, and high profile
vehicles to be at risk along the roads.

The secondary conditional scenario of very large hail and
tornadoes would bring potentially life-threatening impacts,
mainly structural damage as well as damage to crops, livestock,
and any humans finding themselves outdoors in the storms. This
is especially true given the strong wind threat, which could
result in wind driven very large hail, which can do damage to
siding and windows. Again, this is conditional of supercells
developing, and would mainly be confined to extreme southeast
Kansas and west- central Missouri.

Flooding, especially at nighttime, can make it difficult for
drivers to see the depth of water. Any flowing water over
roadways can sweep cars off the roads, creating life-threatening
conditions. Some rivers are forecast to reach Moderate Stage
along the Little Osage, Sac, and Marmaton Rivers. This would
present potential impacts to roads and businesses.

After the line clears:

Temperatures behind the front will drop lows tonight into the
40s as gusty northerly winds advect in colder air.

&&

.MESOSCALE DETAILS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

If you are looking for all the scientific jargon associated
with the upcoming severe weather risk, you've come to the right
place! Read this section. If you are looking for straight-
forward what, when, where communications, check the "Short-Term"
section above.

A deep trough axis currently stretches from Canada, down across
the Rocky Mountain front range. An attendant cold front and
banana low stretches from from east Minnesota down into south-
central KS and into the panhandles. Along the cold front, a
broken line of strong supercells has already developed from
Minnesota down through Kansas and Oklahoma. Radar signatures
already suggest very large hail occurring with these storms.

These supercells are expected to continue eastward. Of
particular note, there is a cluster of supercells in southeast
Kansas lifting northeast that may reach into our northwest CWA.
If this occurs, the environment will be supportive of very large
hail and tornadoes, potentially strong if they do occur. Our 12Z
sounding was already juiced with 1750 J/kg MUCAPE, a pronounced
EML with 7-8 C/km lapse rates, and a layer of dry air aloft. RAP
analysis and short-term forecasts show 50-60 kts of effective
0-6 km bulk shear, defined by large elongated hodographs,
basically straight west to east. This leads to the Large Hail
Parameter at 18-22, which according to research, supports very large
hail up to 3-4 inches. This threat is conditional of discrete
supercells, which CAM guidance suggests would stay confined to
our extreme southeast Kansas and west-central Missouri counties.

Due to the relatively straight nature of the hodographs, 0-1 km
SRH is only around 50-100 m2/s2. As such, the current storms in
Kansas have struggled to develop low-level mesocyclones. That
said, the tornado threat is not zero, especially as the low-
level jet ramps up across the same area as mentioned above. This
looks to increase SRH to around 200 m2/s2 with STP values
approaching 2-3. Therefore, a tornado threat also exists with
the conditional supercell mode, with the reasonable worst case
scenario of an EF2 tornado, given the environment.

Now that the conditional scenario has been discussed, the
primary hazard looks to be very strong wind gusts as a cold
front moves in with the shear vectors along the front being
rather parallel to the flow. This should result in upscale
growth of the current storms in Kansas to become a line. Strong
shear, intense background wind fields, an axis of 3000-3500
J/kg SBCAPE, 20-25 C theta-e difference, and quite dry air
above the boundary layer should allow for RIJs and bow echoes
with strong downburst winds, potentially upwards of 70-80 mph.
Some isolated winds above 80 mph would be possible where the
axis of SBCAPE and Theta-E diff is located, generally along and
northwest of a Fort Scott to Warsaw line. As the line moves
southeast toward the I-44 corridor, nocturnal inhibition will
slowly increase, gradually diminishing the line's intensity.
That said, 60-80 mph will still be possible along and northwest
of I-44, diminishing to 60 mph southeast of I-44.

Lastly, with the line oriented southwest to northeast and mean
flow vectors east-northeast, some training of the line of storms
is expected along and northwest of I-44. HREF LPMM amounts put
widespread 1-2 inches in this area with localized amounts up to
3-5 inches. Given recent saturation across this same area, flash
and river flooding is possible enough to warrant a few flood and
river flood watches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

After the main wave/cold front moves through tonight, the
synoptic-scale pattern will consist of ridging and rising
heights which will result in mostly dry weather through at least
Thursday.

Before temperatures warm back up with ridging moving eastward,
the cooler polar air mass will take hold of the area Saturday
with highs struggling to reach 60 F amid strong cold air
advection. The main surface high pressure center should then
move directly across our area from northwest to southeast,
decreasing winds and dropping temperatures into the middle to
upper 30s. This would bring the potential for frost. Being the
growing season, make sure to protect any plants Saturday night
into Sunday morning.

Southerly flow then returns behind the departing high with the
rising heights aloft. This will slowly warm temperatures back
into the upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday, and into the middle to
upper 70s through Thursday. Lows will increase from the middle
40s Sunday night, to the lower 60s Wednesday night.

Our next chance of rain could be as early as Thursday (20-40%
chance) as ensembles hint at the next trough moving into the
area. There is some uncertainty on timing, however, with chances
peaking more towards Friday rather than Thursday. Trends will
continue to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

FEW to SCT cumulus are expected amid gusty south-southwesterly
winds at 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts through 00Z. After
22-00Z, a line of strong thunderstorms is expected to move west
to east. There is still some uncertainty in how early the line
arrives to each TAF location. TEMPOs are given for the earliest
timeframe, while FM groups are given for the highest confidence
start time. Either way, the primary hazards with this line of
storms will be gusts up to 50 to 65 kts at JLN and SGF, becoming
weaker once reaching BBG with peak gusts at 45-50 kts. Hail up
to quarter size and a brief spin-up tornado will also be
possible as a secondary hazards, but confidence of that threat
being within a TAF site is low. As storms move through, CIGS
should drop to MVFR, perhaps IFR at times.

Otherwise, a cold fropa will quickly occur after the line of
storms, shifting winds to northwesterly by 04-06Z with speeds of
12-18 kts and gusts up to 20-30 kts. Skies should also clear,
leaving VFR conditions by 08-12Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from 6 PM CDT this evening through Saturday
     morning for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch from 6 PM CDT this evening through Saturday
     morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088>091-093-094.

&&

MESOSCALE...
SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
344 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-182045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
344 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Moderate thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to
move out of Kansas and into Missouri late this afternoon through
early Saturday morning with an Enhanced to Moderate (Level 3 to 4
of 5) Risk along and northwest of the Interstate 44 corridor.
Initially, there is a conditional threat of supercells capable of
producing very large hail up to golf balls to tennis balls and
tornadoes, some potentially strong. This initial risk would be
along and northwest of a Columbus, Kansas to Warsaw line between 4
and 7 PM.

After 7 PM, storms are expected to congeal into a line of storms,
bringing the primary threat for strong wind gusts up to 60 to 80
mph. The best chance for 80 mph wind gusts exists along and
northwest of a Columbus, Kansas to Warsaw line. The wind hazard
should slowly diminish to 60-70 mph wind gusts along and southeast
of I-44. Additionally, brief spin-up tornadoes will be possible
with this line of storms.

Storms should reach the Interstate 44 corridor by 8 to 11 PM.
Storms should then move southeast of Interstate 44 after midnight,
ending before sunrise Saturday.

Flood Watch in effect Friday night for locations along and
northwest of the Interstate 44 corridor. Rainfall amounts of 1 to
2 inches are likely with a few isolated amounts of 3 to 4 inches,
especially closer to the Stockton to Truman Lake region.

Southerly wind gusts around 30 mph will shift to northwesterly
overnight and into Saturday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Temperatures in the lower to middle 30s Saturday night into
Sunday morning could lead to frost formation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed tonight for southeast Kansas and
west-central Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

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