Hail in Kansas, April 14, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
613 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon-evening, and again
  Wednesday afternoon-evening.

- Additional thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather
  possible Friday afternoon-evening.

- Well above average temperatures through Friday, cool down for the
  weekend.

- Very high to extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135
  today, and possibly again Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

THUNDERSTORMS:

THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...Scattered to at times numerous
thunderstorms are possible after about 3-4pm, generally along/east
of a line extending from Medicine Lodge to Hutchinson to McPherson,
as low-level convergence drastically increases in response to a
currently veered out dryline retreating rapidly back to the
northwest. Of note...thick mid and upper level clouds are streaming
in from the southwest (more widespread than forecast), which may
limit peak heating, increase capping, support a later initiation
time, and raise questions on how many thunderstorms are able to
breach the cap. Nevertheless, a strong combination of buoyancy and
deep layer shear will support supercells capable of all severe
hazards with any storms that can form. Thinking the tornado threat
will be greatest between roughly 5/6pm and 9/10pm with any discrete
or semi-discrete supercells, as the low-level jet ramps up
increasing low-level shear/SRH. Regarding storm mode/type...while an
adequate component of the deep layer shear is oriented perpendicular
to the dryline, there is a modest component oriented parallel as
well, which should favor a gradual transition to mixed/linear storm
mode as the evening progresses and with eastward extent, especially
if storm coverage proves fairly numerous/widespread.

Overnight, with increasing large scale ascent ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough and the potential for decreasing
convective inhibition, there could be additional thunderstorm
development as far west as central KS in wake of this evening's
departing activity. If capping doesn't prove too detrimental,
shear/buoyancy combination would favor a continued severe weather
threat.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Despite the potential for numerous
thunderstorms overnight, strong southerly flow ahead of the potent
shortwave approaching from the west should be enough to adequately
recover the pre-dryline airmass for additional thunderstorm chances
Wednesday afternoon-evening, mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike.
Given the stronger forcing, thinking storm initiation could be as
early as 2-3pm. Another strong combination of buoyancy and deep
layer shear should favor a severe threat, although we're thinking
the strong forcing in concert with the shear vectors oriented mostly
parallel to the dryline would likely support a mixed/messy/linear
storm mode, which could tend to limit a higher-end severe threat.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic and ensemble consensus
continues to support a reloading warm/moist/unstable sector by late
week, as another western CONUS upper trough deepens. A sharpening
dryline/cold front combination along with strong instability and
strong shear look to be present. This could support another round of
strong to severe thunderstorms as we head into late Friday. Still
lots of uncertainty this far out regarding timing, placement, and
amplitude of synoptic features, stay tuned.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee
troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above
average temperatures will persist through this entire work week. The
warmest days look to be today, Thursday, and Friday when low-level
thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for most across the
forecast area. As we head into the weekend, model consensus
continues to support a cool down in wake of a strong cold front,
with potential below average temperatures Saturday and Sunday, and
even possible near freezing temperatures early Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

As of 23Z, VFR conditions were prevailing across the region.
Still anticipating thunderstorm development around or a little
after 00Z this evening along and east of a KANY-KEWK line,
although confidence in this occurring is beginning to decrease
this evening. However, storms ongoing across Oklahoma may
gradually gain latitude and push into southern and southeast
Kansas later tonight. Storms are expected to be strong to severe
with large hail, wind gusts over 50 knots, and perhaps a tornado
or two possible. Continued with PROB30s at KICT and KCNU given
the lack of confidence in storm coverage this evening into
tonight.

After 06Z tonight, while the initial round of storms will exit
the region, some additional storm development is possible across
south-central Kansas, but again, confidence is low on this
outcome. Winds will stay breezy with the direction staying
southerly through the overnight hours. During the day on
Wednesday, an advancing dryline will cause winds to veer out to
southwesterly or westerly during the afternoon hours. Also,
storms are forecast to develop along and east of the Flint
Hills. Elected to go with a PROB30 for KCNU for storms
Wednesday afternoon to cover this possibility.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

TODAY...Low relative humidity and gusty southwest winds just west of
a dryline will support VERY HIGH to EXTREME grassland fire danger
west of Interstate 135. A red flag warning remains in effect through
8pm this evening west of I-135.

FRIDAY...Another round of very high grassland fire danger is
possible Friday afternoon generally west of Salina to Hutchinson.
Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047-048-050-067-082-091.

&&

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
802 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-160115-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
802 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible in south central and southeast
Kansas this evening. A couple of storms could become severe with
up to two inch hail, 70 mph winds and a tornado cannot be ruled out
with the strongest activity. Heavy rain may lead to localized
flooding as well. The greatest severe weather threat will likely be
before midnight, although additional isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will remain possible overnight areawide.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible again Wednesday
afternoon and evening, generally southeast of the Kansas Turnpike.

Another vigorous storm system will arrive on Friday bringing the
potential for severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Very high grassfire danger may return for portions of central
Kansas Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict