Hail in Kansas, April 14, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning continues through early this evening on
  strong southwest winds and RH's down to 15%

- Increased fire weather risk Thursday to at least Near-Critical
  conditions as dry south winds resume west of Highway 283.

- A more significant Critical Fire day likely west of the
  dryline on Friday (especially west of Highway 283) with severe
  weather risk east of the dryline (15% combined severe outlook
  east of Coldwater to Great Bend line)

- Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday and/or Sunday
  morning as cold air mass drives south behind significant
  spring storm system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Spring storm system #1 of 2 continued its approach on the Central
Plains, centered near the Utah-Colorado line as of 1730Z. The
enhanced, larger scale upward vertical motion with the approaching
wave will allow the dryline to sharpen across south central KS into
OK by late afternoon/evening, and the dryline will be very close to
the southeastern corner of our DDC CWA (southeastern Barber County)
such that we will need to keep some slight chance POPs in for
strong/severe storm potential -- especially if any left-moving
splits off of any supercells across northern OK clips Barber County.
Any convective threat should end by mid-late evening as the larger
scale storm system continues its push east tonight.

On Wednesday behind the storm, models have trended a bit
deeper/farther south with the upper wave, such that low level
pressure gradient will remain tight enough to keep west-northwest
winds higher than previously forecast, thus have collaborated with
neighboring offices to bump winds up above NBM baseline to NBM75th
percentile with a little bit of 90th percentile influence much of
the day (resulting in sustained wind forecast of 15 to 25 mph with
higher gusts).

On Thursday, the low levels will begin responding to the next storm
system -- a larger scale system with deeper surface low which will
fully mature by Friday. A much colder air mass will also be involved
with Friday's storm up across the northern High Plains, which will
drive south toward northwest Kansas Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, a
reshaped dryline will develop across southwest/south central KS
(likely positioned somewhere between Dodge City and Pratt) by late
afternoon. A coupled upper level jet structure will take shape over
the warm/moist air mass, allowing large scale forcing for ascent to
result in further cyclogenesis/frontogenesis -- setting the stage
for what looks to be a rather significant severe weather outbreak
across the eastern half of Kansas and much of Oklahoma. The western
edge/early development of this potential severe weather outbreak
will likely include at least the eastern/southeastern one-third of
the DDC CWA, and SPC has maintained a 15% outlook from roughly
Coldwater to Great Bend and points east (higher 30% outlook just
east of our DDC CWA).

An intense cold front with very sharp temperature and significant
pressure rises will move across western Kansas Friday evening, and
models are certainly suggestive of at least a 1 to 3 hour period of
potential high wind at the onset of frontal passage. The official
forecast does not yet reflect this, but look for the wind forecast
to continue to increase in strength (perhaps significantly) as
confidence in timing and strength of the cold front increases.

Fairly strong northwest winds will continue through at least the
first half of Saturday behind the intense spring storm, but sensible
weather will improve by later Saturday afternoon. Cooler
temperatures will certainly be noticed with afternoon highs Saturday
in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Given the expected magnitude of the
cold air mass, we will have to watch for possible freeze headlines
Saturday and/or Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Gusty southwest winds will weaken
10-15 kt between 00Z-03Z tonight. Light southwest winds are expected
through the overnight period. Winds will eventually become west to
northwest through the day tomorrow. No major aviation impacts are
expected through the next 24 hours.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
128 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-150630-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
128 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 /1228 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Critical fire weather conditions today are expected with strong
southwesterly winds 25-35 mph with gusts as high as 55 mph and
relative humidity 15% or less for the entire forecast area. Any
potential fires will be able to spread quickly and out of control.
Strong winds will also make travel difficult for high profile
vehicles.

Conditional risk for severe weather will exist today across the
far eastern counties. There is a low chance of storms occurring,
but if they do, could be locally severe with large hail as the
primary hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Another elevated to critical fire weather day is possible on
Thursday where overlap of breezy conditions and low relative
humidity is evident.

Friday could feature another chance at severe weather in our
eastern counties. Exact placement and severity is still uncertain,
but the pattern could feature severe thunderstorms along and ahead
of a dry line Friday afternoon and evening. 15% severe
probabilities exist at this time to highlight this risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
848 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

KSZ066-081-150215-
Pratt KS-Stafford KS-
848 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN STAFFORD AND
EASTERN PRATT COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

At 848 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pratt, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pratt around 855 PM CDT.
  Preston around 900 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Neola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 9870 3756 9885 3794 9865 3790 9847
      3783 9847 3782 9846 3771 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 224DEG 49KT 3761 9876

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TATRO