Drought in Kansas, April 14 to 30, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated severe thunderstorm possible late this afternoon and
  evening.

- Better chances for thunderstorms and associated severe weather
  Tuesday afternoon-evening, and again late Wednesday.

- Additional thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather
  possible Friday afternoon-evening.

- Well above average temperatures through Friday, cool down for next
  weekend.

- Extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135 through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

PRECIPITATION:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...Today's severe weather threat is
conditional, as storm development will likely struggle given only
modest dryline convergence and little to no upper forcing for large
scale ascent. However, low-level moisture is a bit richer compared
to yesterday at this time, which should support weaker convective
inhibition. Additionally, there is some CAM support for isolated
thunderstorm development. If a storm or two is able to develop, a
favorable combination of strong buoyancy and 40-50 kts of effective
deep layer shear oriented perpendicular to the dryline would support
supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. Area and time
would be 5-10 PM generally along/east of the KS Turnpike.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Thunderstorm chances and associated
severe weather potential aren't quite as clear cut for late Tuesday,
with the overall uncertainty increasing. With the upper wave slowing
down some, dryline convergence looks only modest by late Tuesday
afternoon, which may prove challenging for widespread convective
initiation. However, as the evening progresses large scale forcing
increasing from the west in concert with the low-level jet ramping
up should support an eventual uptick in thunderstorm coverage.
Additionally, any storms that form may tend to evolve toward
mixed/messy mode, due to a decent component of the deep layer shear
oriented parallel to the NE-SW dryline, which would tend to cut into
higher-end severe potential.

Despite these uncertainties, we will continue messaging the
potential for severe storms given the strong combination of
shear/buoyancy ahead of the dryline. Area and time would be
generally along/southeast of a line extending from Harper to Wichita
to Hillsboro between about 4pm and midnight.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...With model consensus hanging back the
parent upper trough, the pre-dryline warm/moist/unstable airmass may
should remain intact across the region for additional thunderstorm
chances Wednesday afternoon-evening, mainly east of the Kansas
Turnpike. However, the quality of the warm sector will be contingent
on how widespread Tuesday evening/night thunderstorm activity is. If
this scenario pans out, buoyancy and shear combination would favor a
severe threat, although strong forcing and shear vectors mostly
parallel to the dryline would likely support a mixed/messy/linear
storm mode and limit a higher-end severe threat.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic and ensemble consensus
continues to support a reloading warm/moist/unstable sector by late
week, as another western CONUS upper trough deepens. A sharpening
dryline/cold front combination along with strong instability and
shear look to be present. This could support another round of
thunderstorms (possibly severe) as we head into late Friday. Still
lots of uncertainty this far out regarding timing, placement, and
amplitude of synoptic features, stay tuned.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee
troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above
average temperatures look to likely persist through this entire work
week. The warmest days look to be today, Tuesday, and Thursday, when
low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for most
across the forecast area. As we head into next weekend, model
consensus supports a cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with
potential below average temperatures Saturday and Sunday, and even
possible near freezing temperatures early Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Low-level wind shear will impact south central and southeast
Kansas TAF sites through early Tuesday as the low-level jet
ramps up. Some MVFR cigs will be confined to southeast Kansas
impacting KCNU through mid-morning before mixing out. Gusty
southerly winds may gust around 35-40 knots at times on Tuesday
afternoon as the dryline mixes eastward over the area once
again. Widely scattered storms will become increasingly likely
along and east of the dryline after 21-22Z with severe storms
likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

TODAY--TUESDAY...Lower relative humidity and gusty southwest winds
just west of a dryline will support VERY HIGH to EXTREME grassland
fire danger west of Interstate 135 both today and Tuesday. Red flag
warning remains in effect through 9pm this evening west of I-135,
and the fire weather watch will be upgraded to a red flag warning
Tuesday. Otherwise, spring green-up amidst rather high daytime
humidity values should keep grassfire danger in check for most areas
generally east of I-135 the next 7 days.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.

&&

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
853 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-150200-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
853 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Very to extreme grassfire danger will return for areas along and
west of I-135 Tuesday.

Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase Tuesday afternoon and
evening across central and eastern Kansas, mainly east of a line
extending from Salina to Hutchinson to Anthony. Severe
thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are possible.

Severe thunderstorms are possible again on Wednesday afternoon and
evening, generally southeast of the Kansas Turnpike.

Another storm system will arrive on Friday, bringing another
potential round of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming
days.

Finally, very high grassfire danger may return for portions of
central Kansas Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict