Hail in Iowa, April 15, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1045 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorm chances continue in eastern
  Nebraska and western Iowa this afternoon and early evening.
  Large hail will be the primary concern, though damaging wind
  gusts and brief tornado remain possible.

- Warm, dry and windy conditions will brining elevated fire
  weather concerns on Thursday, particularly in east-central
  Nebraska.

- Additional severe thunderstorm chances are expected on Friday.
  Cooler air arrives Friday night into the weekend. Saturday
  and Sunday morning lows will dip below freezing for some
  locations, with highs only peaking in the 50s on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

An upper-level wave ejecting northward into the central Plains is
pushing an attendant surface low, currently positioned in southeast
Nebraska, northeastward into central Iowa through the day. This
feature will draw a warm sector northward in eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa this afternoon with a weak convergent boundary draped
generally along to just north of the I-80 corridor. Afternoon highs
temperatures are expected to peak in the 70s. Instability will
increase through the day, with a narrow ribbon of SBCAPE values
exceeding 2500 J/kg wrapping into the mid-MO Valley. A few elevated
supercells have already track across northeast Nebraska late this
morning, producing severe hail. The main questions will be if the
warm sector pushes eastward outside of the forecast area before
surface base convection occurs. The latest CAM guidance varies with
some members initiating storms near the Missouri River longitude,
while others don't develop storms until the feature is further into
western Iowa during the later afternoon hours. If surface based
storms are able to initiate in the forecast area, an initial
supercell storm mode is possible with large hail the primary hazard
given mid-level lapse rates approaching 8-8.5 deg/km. An isolated
tornado threat will also be possible with any surface based storm
able to establish itself given sufficient low-level hodograph
curvature and backing surface winds, especially near the
aforementioned convergent boundary. Damaging wind gusts and
locally heavy rainfall will also be on the table. Additional
chances for elevated supercells, with hail the primary hazard,
will continue north of the low through the afternoon.

A brief period of mid-level ridging will slide across the area on
Thursday, bringing a short break from the severe weather potential
along with the return of fire weather concerns. Afternoon highs
temperatures are expected to peak in the 80s, approximately 15-20
degrees above climatological norms. Afternoon relative humidity
values are expected to drop into the 15-35% range, with the lowest
values expected towards east-central Nebraska. Gusty south-
southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph tomorrow afternoon will help to
elevate fire weather concerns, though confidence in winds reaching
Red Flag Warning criteria is low. Most EPS/EPS-AIFS members keep
winds capped around 30 mph. Additionally, RAP model soundings top
out winds at the top of the mixed layer at 20-25 kts. Therefore, we
are continuing the Fire Weather Watch for Thursday afternoon and
evening.

Friday and Beyond...

Severe weather potential returns on Friday as an upper-level trough
pushes into the central and northern Plains. An associated surface
low is expected to push across Nebraska through the day, with an
attendant cold front pushing eastward across the region. High
temperatures will depend on where the cold front is before peak
daytime heating, with values peaking in the 70s to low 80s ahead of
the front and the 60s behind the front. Gusty northwesterly winds of
30-35 mph will move in behind the front.

Convective initiation is expected along the cold front with strong
forcing for ascent and ample instability ahead of the boundary. Yet
again, the main question will be how quickly the front crashes
through the area. SPC currently has far southeast Nebraska clipped
in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) with a Slight Risk (level 2
out of 5) draped further west. An initial supercell storm mode
capable of all severe weather hazards looks probable for any storms
that develop in the warm sector. We will have to see how things
trend in regards to cold front placement into the afternoon as the
system approaches. Any lingering precipitation will work its way out
into Saturday morning, with a chance (10-20%) for a brief
rain/snow mix on the back side of the departing precipitation
shield.

The post-frontal airmass will certainly be felt on Saturday, with
morning lows temperatures dipping in the 30s, followed by afternoon
highs topping out in the 50s. Lows again Sunday morning will drop
near freezing for most locations, with the upper 20s expected across
northeast Nebraska. Ensure any sensitive vegetation is protected and
hoses are disconnected. Temperatures will gradually rebound later
Sunday into early next week as mid-level ridging pivots into the
central Plains. Highs on Sunday are expected in the 60s, rising to
the 70s Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Spotty showers and storms this morning are favored to remain
out of the TAF sites. Higher chances arrive this afternoon at
OFK, but guidance suggests higher storm chances will remain east
of OMA and LNK for now. That said, still have a 20-30% chance
from around 19-00Z. Otherwise, expect a band of MVFR ceilings at
OMA and LNK this morning before they rise to VFR/scatter out
this afternoon with only passing high clouds after (barring a
storm). Expect northeasterly winds to become more northerly
this morning, northwesterly this afternoon, and southwesterly
this evening. Speeds should generally remain at or below 10 kts
outside of any storms.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-161600-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-
Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-Stanton-
Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-
Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-
Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, east central Nebraska, northeast Nebraska and southeast
Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible late this morning,
with hail being the primary threat. Additional severe weather
chances arrive this afternoon, with the highest potential being near
and east of the Missouri River from 1 PM through 6 PM. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary threats, though a brief tornado can't
be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will lead to increased fire danger
on Thursday, especially in northeast Nebraska.

Additional chances for severe storms arrive for Friday afternoon and
evening. All severe weather hazards will be possible with these
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be today and Friday.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1005 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 AM     Hail             2 E Schuyler            41.45N 97.02W
04/15/2026  E1.00 Inch       Colfax             NE   Trained Spotter

&&

mw

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1008 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 AM     Hail             2 S Schuyler            41.42N 97.06W
04/15/2026  E1.00 Inch       Colfax             NE   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1016 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 AM     Hail             1 ESE Schuyler          41.45N 97.05W
04/15/2026  E1.00 Inch       Colfax             NE   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1018 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 AM     Hail             Rogers                  41.47N 96.91W
04/15/2026  E1.00 Inch       Colfax             NE   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1034 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 AM     Hail             1 N Winslow             41.63N 96.50W
04/15/2026  M1.00 Inch       Dodge              NE   Trained Spotter

&&

mw

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1056 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     Hail             3 NNW Herman            41.71N 96.24W
04/15/2026  E1.00 Inch       Burt               NE   Public

&&

mw