The severe to extreme drought conditions that became entrenched across central Indiana during the winter of 2025-2026 persisted through the month of February. While January had seen a significant degradation and expansion of drought intensity, February was characterized by a stagnant status quo, where meager precipitation totals prevented any meaningful recovery.
Every event with a place to put it; 17 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IND wrote it up.
The severe to extreme drought conditions that became entrenched across central Indiana during the winter of 2025-2026 persisted through the month of February. While January had seen a significant degradation and expansion of drought intensity, February was characterized by a stagnant status quo, where meager precipitation totals prevented any meaningful recovery. Extreme Drought (D3) remained fixed across the north-central corridor, while Severe Drought (D2) continued to blanket much of the surrounding West Central and Central Indiana counties.
The most intense conditions remained centered on Howard County, which stayed entirely within D3 intensity throughout the month. This Extreme Drought also maintained its grip on much of Carroll and Delaware counties, the northern half of Tipton County, and the northern third of Madison County. Furthermore, D3 conditions remained fixed in the far northwestern corner of Randolph County and northeastern Clinton County. Surrounding these areas, D2 conditions were maintained across the entirety of Warren, Tippecanoe, Fountain, and Vermillion counties, as well as the majority of Boone, Hamilton, and Montgomery counties. On the southern fringe of the drought’s extent, D2 intensity persisted in northwestern Parke, northwestern Vigo, and northern Henry counties.
Precipitation throughout February was once again critically low, frequently falling well below 50% of monthly norms. The driest conditions were observed in the northwest, where Warren County recorded less than a tenth of an inch of liquid equivalent, and Tippecanoe County saw only around 0.20 inches. Other hard-hit areas, including Carroll, Howard, and Delaware counties, saw totals struggle to reach 1.00 inch. While southern and eastern fringes like Henry and Parke counties received slightly higher totals ranging from 1.50 to 2.00 inches, the moisture was insufficient to overcome the long-term deficits. While D2 conditions were proscribed to end in March for several counties including Vigo, Hamilton, and Boone the drought remained firmly established for the majority of the region as the month concluded.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Indianapolis, IN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 11:49 PM EST, 11 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1149 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - COLD WEATHER ADVISORY in effect 1 am through 9 am Sunday - Very cold temperatures will continue through Monday morning - Temperatures are unlikely to reach the freezing mark before early in the work week, and if they do not, chances may be low well into February - Chances for light snow Sunday night into Monday, Tuesday into Tuesday night, and Thursday night into Friday && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1008 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026 Only a few flurries remain across the far southwestern portions of the area, so left a brief mention there. Clouds had cleared across a good portion of the eastern two-thirds of the forecast area. Temperatures varied from near zero in favored cold areas that have cleared, to the upper teens where clouds remain. Based on where clouds have cleared already and the temperature response, have lowered low temperatures as needed. Will continue to monitor to see if readings need lowered more, but as has been the case recently, would not be surprised if some protected rural areas get colder than forecast. Observations as well as public reports show that some patchy fog has developed where skies have cleared. The HRRR is overdoing cooling and thus likely overdoing fog development. Skies will remain clear to partly cloudy across the eastern two thirds of the area, with light winds. These areas also received some scattered snow accumulations earlier. Given the above, feel that patchy fog may spread across these areas. Have added it to the forecast. The far western forecast area will keep some lake enhanced clouds tonight, so temperatures will be warmer there, with less chances for fog development. The Cold Weather Advisory still looks good given expected temperatures and light winds. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)... Issued at 257 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026 Satellite imagery shows a mid/upper-level vort max dropping southward across Indiana. Broad lift combined with some lake- enhancement has lead to numerous light to at times moderate snow showers today. Model and observed soundings show lift and moisture concentrated within the dendritic growth zone, allowing for efficient accumulations despite very limited liquid equivalence. In fact, amounts of up to an inch have already been reported as of 2pm. Upstream observations show stratus extending far to our north and northeast, all the way into southern Michigan. However, this stratus has been thinning within the broad subsidence behind the departing vort max. Model guidance suggests that continued clearing is possible into tonight, except immediately downwind of Lake Michigan. Scattered flurries are possible as long as there's stratus overhead. Assuming skies clear overnight, especially across our east which will be displaced from the primary lake stratus band...we'll see another night of ideal radiative cooling potential. Like previous nights, we are going to go below guidance on low temperatures mainly across our eastern two thirds. Lows as low as -10 degrees are possible under mainly clear skies and light winds, especially in rural areas. As such, another Cold Weather Advisory has been issued from 06z to 14z. Clouds begin increasing again Sunday morning as winds take on a westerly component, allowing the lake stratus band to drift eastward. Additionally, a clipper system approaching from the northwest should cause an increase in mid to high-level cloud cover Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures remain below freezing but should rebound into the high teens (northeast) or low 20s (southwest). && .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)... Issued at 257 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026 Little change in the long range pattern is expected. Global teleconnections continue to favor west coast ridging and east coast troughing (positive Pacific North American pattern and negative Arctic Oscillation). Ensemble guidance does show the PNA becoming more neutral to possibly negative by the middle of February. GEFS/EPS likewise continue to show a continuation of the current pattern through the first week of February. Scaling down a bit, there looks to be a few opportunities for snowfall next week. First, as mentioned at the end of the short term section, a clipper is modeled to dive southeastward late Sunday into Monday. There remains some disagreement within guidance, with some CAMs coming in a bit more aggressively than the global models. The more robust models (12Z HRRR), show as much as 1 to 2 inches across portions of central Indiana. Other models show little if anything. Given the trends however, we will introduce PoPs for the Sunday night into Monday timeframe. This is a departure from blended guidance, which does not have much in the way of precipitation chances. Next, a system shown by the majority of guidance in the Tuesday Wednesday timeframe. Guidance has trended weaker and a bit further south over the past day, though this will still bear monitoring in the coming days as it could pose a threat for additional accumulating snowfall somewhere in the area. Lastly, at least a low chance for light accumulations will come late in the work week with another fairly substantial clipper as well. Beyond that, generally more of the same is expected. Namely, colder than normal temperatures, northwesterly flow aloft, and occasional weak clipper systems diving southeastward out of Canada. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1149 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026 Impacts: - MVFR ceilings possible at times into Sunday morning - Increasing chance for patchy fog late tonight and early Sunday Discussion: A broad area of clearing had developed over most of central Indiana late this evening with leftover lake effect stratus along the Illinois-Indiana border and additional stratus over far eastern Indiana. This has created some increased concern with respect to fog development in the predawn hours as there remains lingering moisture within the near surface layer. CAMs appear to be overdoing the fog potential but confidence has increased enough to introduce MVFR restrictions late tonight into Sunday morning with an expansion of lower stratus as well. Low clouds may briefly scour out during the day Sunday as a high pressure ridge passes through the Ohio Valley. Clouds will however return for Sunday evening into the overnight in advance of a fast moving upper level wave. Light and variable winds into Sunday morning will become S/SW at 5 to 10kts Sunday afternoon. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for INZ021-029>031- 036>042-045>049-054>057-063>065-072. && UPDATE...50 SHORT TERM...Eckhoff LONG TERM...Eckhoff AVIATION...Ryan
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1009 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026 INZ021-029>031-036>042-045>049-054>057-063>065-072-020315- Carroll-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Montgomery-Boone-Tipton-Hamilton- Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry- Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Jennings- 1009 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Cold Weather Advisory tonight with wind chills approaching as low as -20. Patchy fog may lead to some slick spots on surfaces. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a chance for light snow on Monday, then the potential for accumulating snow Tuesday and Tuesday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind INZ028-035-043-044-051>053-060>062-067>071-020315- Warren-Fountain-Vermillion-Parke-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Sullivan-Greene- Monroe-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson- 1009 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Patchy fog over some areas may lead to some slick spots on surfaces. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a chance for light snow on Monday, then the potential for accumulating snow Tuesday and Tuesday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
17 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Precipitation totaled only around 1.20 to 1.60 inches across the month of February. This maintained D2 conditions across northwestern Vigo county. D2 conditions would end with the March 10th drought monitor update.
Precipitation totaled only around 1.00 to 1.40 inches across the month of February. This maintained D2 conditions across all of Vermillion county. D2 conditions would end with the March 17th drought monitor update.
Precipitation totaled less than a tenth of an inch across the month of February. This maintained D2 conditions across all of Warren county. These drought conditions continued into at least March 2026.
Precipitation totaled only around 0.40 inches across the month of February. This maintained D2 conditions across the entire county through the month of February. These drought conditions continued into at least March 2026.
Precipitation totaled only around 0.2 inches across the month of February. This maintained D2 conditions across all of Tippecanoe county through the month. These drought conditions continued into at least March 2026.
Precipitation totaled only around 1.00 to 1.60 inches across the month of February. This maintained D2 conditions across all but far southern Montgomery county through the month of February. D2 conditions would end with the March 17th drought monitor update.
Precipitation totaled only around 0.70 inches across the month of February. This maintained D2 conditions across southwestern Carroll county with D3 conditions across the rest of the county. These drought conditions continued into at least March 2026.
Precipitation totaled only around 1.10 to 1.30 inches across the month of February. This maintained D3 conditions across northeastern Clinton county with D2 conditions across the remainder of the county. These drought conditions continued into at least March 2026.
Precipitation totaled only around 1.00 to 1.30 inches across the month of February. This maintained D2 conditions for all but far southern Boone county through the month. D2 conditions would end with the March 10th drought monitor update.
Precipitation totaled only around 0.70 to 1.00 inches across the month of February. This maintained D3 conditions across all of Howard county through the month. These drought conditions continued into at least March 2026.
Precipitation totaled only around 1.1 inches across the month of February. This maintained D3 conditions across the northern half of the county with D2 conditions across the remainder of the county. These drought conditions continued into at least March 2026.
Precipitation totaled only around 0.70 to 1.20 inches across the month of February. This maintained D2 conditions across all but far southern Hamilton county through the month. D2 conditions would end with the March 10th drought monitor update.
Precipitation totaled only around 1.00 to 1.25 inches across the month of February. This maintained D3 conditions across the northern third of Madison county with D2 conditions across the remainder of all but the far southern tip of the county. These drought conditions continued into at least March 2026.
Precipitation totaled only around 0.50 to 1.10 inches across the month of February. This maintained D3 conditions across much of the county with D2 conditions across the southern portions. These drought conditions continued into at least March 2026.
Precipitation totaled only around 1.10 inches across the month of February. This maintained D2 conditions across portions of Randolph county with D3 conditions in the far northwest. These drought conditions continued into at least March 2026.
Precipitation totaled only around 1.50 to 1.80 inches across the month of February. This maintained D2 conditions across far northern Henry county. D2 conditions would end with the March 10th drought monitor update.
Precipitation totaled only around 1.50 to 2.00 inches across the month of February. This maintained D2 drought into northwestern Parke county through the month. D2 conditions would end with the March 10th drought monitor update.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, February 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1311365, 1311366, 1311367, 1311368, 1311369, 1311370, 1311371, 1311372, 1311373, 1311374, 1311375, 1311376, 1311377, 1311379, 1311381, 1311382, 1311383.