Wildfire in Idaho, June 21 to 22, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
109 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms linger in East Idaho this
  afternoon.

- Red Flag Warning in effect for the eastern Magic Valley on
  Monday. Near critical fire weather conditions for most others.

- Heating up and staying mostly dry and breezy for the better
  part of the week ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The shortwave trough that moved through the area yesterday continues
to make its way eastward today. And while most of us stay dry today,
we are seeing a few isolated showers and storms popping up in the
Central Mountains, upper Snake River Plain towards Island Park, and
the South Hills. Gusts from any isolated storm will be around 40 mph
with breezy afternoon winds outside of storms in the 20 to 30 mph
range. We begin our warming trend today, too. It won't be quite as
noticeable yet as we're just a couple of degrees warmer than
yesterday, and then we keep warming a few degrees each afternoon.
Monday will be a very dry day with breezy winds gusting 20 to 30 mph
in parts of the eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake River Plain
with a few pockets gusting to 35 mph. It will be breezy across the
American Falls Reservoir, but it is more of a west wind than a
southwest wind, so will not be issuing a Lake Wind Advisory.

Highs will make it into the low 90s in a few spots as early as
Tuesday afternoon, but Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the
week with highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s in the Magic
Valley and Snake River Plain. The NBM shows a 60 to 90 percent
chance of highs exceeding 90 degrees from Burley north to Carey and
east to Fort Hall and down through our valley towns in the South
Hills and Southeastern Highlands. It's about a 20 to 40 percent
chance of the same from Blackfoot north to Rexburg. The ECMWF and
GFS do show a few weak disturbances passing through eastern Idaho
during the week, but actual precipitation chances look very slim.
Models are showing a strong low dropping into the PNW next Saturday
and moving into Idaho on Sunday that could bring some measurable
precipitation, but that's still a week away and we will just watch
and wait for details to get clearer as we go through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions persist today as our shortwave trough from yesterday
continues to exit the area. There will be a few lingering isolated
showers and storms this afternoon, though it looks like SUN, BYI,
and PIH will remain dry with a 10 to 20 percent chance for storm
impacts at/near IDA and DIJ. Given the low confidence in a storm
directly impacting IDA and/or DIJ will leave any VCTS or PROB30
out of the TAF for now. Afternoon gusts will be around 15 to 20
kts with any of our isolated storms being capable of producing
gusts of 30-35 kts and brief drops to MVFR conditions if a storm
passes directly over a terminal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

We begin to dry out today as yesterday's shortwave trough that came
through continues to move eastward. Min RHs this afternoon fall into
the upper teens to low 20s in portions of Fire Weather Zones 422,
425, 475, and 476. It's also a bit breezy at times this afternoon
with gusts around 20 to 25 mph. And while most of us stay dry today,
we are seeing a few isolated showers and storms popping up in the
Central Mountains, upper Snake River Plain towards Island Park, and
the South Hills. Any isolated storm could produce wind gusts around
40 mph. We get even drier and warmer on Monday as wind gusts pick up
to 25 to 35 mph in FWZ 425, so a RED FLAG WARNING has been issued
due to low RHs in the single digits to low teens and these breezy
winds. FWZ 410, 413, and 427 will see near-critical conditions also
due to very low RHs and breezy winds, but the breezy winds aren't
quite to RFW criteria. However, the main concern in 413 and 427 will
be if we see any activity get going from hiding holdovers from
yesterday's lightning.

We will spend most of this week at near-critical fire weather
conditions due to low RHs and breezy winds, but it looks like we may
not actually reach RFW criteria again until Wednesday or Thursday as
winds begin to pick up. Wind gusts will be significantly stronger
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as our longer range models are picking
up on another system moving into Eastern Idaho. We will have to wait
until we get a bit closer to next weekend to see how models handle
this system and how it may play out.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Monday for IDZ425.

&&

DISCUSSION...AMM
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...AMM