Damaging Winds in Georgia, May 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
341 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

- An active day is in store with heavy rainfall capable of
  producing flash flooding this afternoon. A Slight Risk (level 2
  of 4) is in place across most of SW GA in the Day 1 Excessive
  Rainfall Outlook.

- Rain chances become more confined to the seabreeze zone into mid week
  with hot temperatures expected. A drier and temporary cooler
  pattern follows.

- A HIGH risk of rip currents is in place at the Walton, Bay, and
  Gulf County beaches. Beachgoers are urged to heed the beach
  flags and reminded that waters are closed to the public if
  double red flags are flying.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(This Evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

An active day already unfolding, with the main cause for concern
being high rainfall rates leading to possible flooding concerns as
PWAT values come in at around 2.1 inches today. The majority of
activity will generally be north of I-10 or possibly the Florida
border as a backdoor front begins encroaching on the CWA from the
NE. Some gusty winds and stronger storms will be possible with deep
layer shear helping any storms that can get a bit more organized
strengthen further. Storm coverage is expected to stay rather robust
into this evening, diminishing overnight. Highs today are expected
to range from the mid 80s to low 90s, with heat indicies in the mid
90s to near 100 degrees. The north south temperature gradient will
be fairly proportional to expected storm coverage limiting daytime
highs over SE Alabama and SW Georgia.

Going forward, tomorrow's storm coverage will me more limited to the
southern half of the CWA during the day as the front sags southward.
A MCS driven boundary my push through late Monday night into Tuesday
from the NW, possibly providing the bump needed to enhance Tuesday's
activity. A number of timing factors and front position will dictate
the overall coverage though. Temperatures slightly cooler and dryer
starting Wednesday post frontal, along with a noticeable drop in RH
values, keeping apparent temps in the low to mid 80s, staying in the
low 90s along the immediate coastline. Temperatures gradually
increasing thereafter as a ridge high pressure builds over the SE.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR is forecast at ECP through the TAF period. For the remainder of
the sites, expect SHRA/TSRA this aftn and eve, ending 04-06Z at DHN,
ABY, and VLD with medium confidence in the ending time. That will be
followed by IFR cigs at DHN and ABY with a potential for VLIFR, and
MVFR at VLD and TLH. Cigs are forecast to slowly lift through MVFR
at the aforementioned sites Monday morning with medium confidence in
timing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Gentle to moderate west to southwest breezes prevail through
early next week with a daily onshore seabreeze. Occasional fresh
onshore breezes usher cautionary conditions across the nearshore
legs Tuesday afternoon. Additional boating concerns are
thunderstorms mainly during the morning hours. By early Wednesday,
a backdoor front slipping south of the waters causes winds to
freshen out of the northeast with possible advisory level
easterlies into Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

A very moist airmass and high rain chances should keep fire
concerns minimal through the early work week. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will pose a frequent lightning, and
gusty/erratic wind threat. Widespread wetting to soaking rains
are likely today, especially over SW GA. Winds will be somewhat
variable thanks to presence of a backdoor front and flourishing
convection. High dispersions are forecast Monday afternoon.
Convection becomes more confined to the seabreeze zone
Monday-Wednesday, so conditions are forecast to be hot. Notably
drier conditions arrive late this week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Today will be the most convectively active day of the forecast
period with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected. Widespread rainfall amounts range from about a half inch
to 1.5 inches (isolated higher). However, local CAMs suggest a
12-hr worst case scenario of 3-4+ inches this afternoon and about
2-5+ inches during the evening mainly north of the FL state line
(isolated 6-8 inches appears possible). The probability of 3
inches range from about 25-50% - highest around the I-75 corridor
and Wiregrass Region. The 0Z HREF paints high probabilities for >3
inches in SE AL, SW GA, and parts of the Eastern FL Big Bend with
lower-end probs of exceeding 5 inches! This information suggests
a fairly high ceiling for heavy rain. Current flash flood guidance
shows that about 2-2.5 inches in 1 hr and 3-4 inches in 3 hrs
would be needed to produce flash flooding.

Recent rainfall has increased soil moisture, but long term
drought conditions remain. As of May 28th however, the latest
monitor shows improvement along/west of the Flint River basin
where D2 severe drought is now in place from roughly from Albany,
GA to just west of KECP in Bay County, FL. Extreme to exceptional
drought remains in place to the east. Additional near-term
improvement is likely if the amounts described above are realized.

In terms of rivers, the Choctawhatchee Caryville has crested and
should fall below action stage later this morning while Bruce has
now reached actions stage.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the
following websites:
weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  91  73  91 /  50  40  10  60
Panama City   76  89  76  89 /  20  30  10  40
Dothan        71  90  71  88 /  70  20  20  40
Albany        70  88  71  87 /  70  10  20  50
Valdosta      70  89  71  89 /  80  30  20  60
Cross City    75  91  75  93 /  40  50  20  60
Apalachicola  78  88  78  88 /  10  30  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ108-112-
     114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Humphreys
LONG TERM....Humphreys
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Humphreys

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1207 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

FLZ007-008-311745-
Central Walton FL-North Walton FL-
1207 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WALTON COUNTY
THROUGH 1245 PM CDT...

At 1206 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Laurel Hill, or 13 miles east of Crestview, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
De Funiak Springs, Eglin Air Force Base, Liberty, Gordon, Pond Creek,
Oakwood Hills, Cluster Springs, Fox Hill, Sand Hill, Alpine Heights,
De Funiak Spring Airport, Pleasant Hill, Pleasant Ridge, Center
Ridge, New Harmony, Piney Grove, and Mossy Head.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3088 8639 3092 8635 3082 8605 3056 8627
      3067 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 296DEG 14KT 3080 8636

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

58-REESE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1241 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

FLZ007>009-311830-
Central Walton FL-Holmes FL-North Walton FL-
1241 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL WALTON AND SOUTHWESTERN
HOLMES COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM CDT...

At 1241 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 19 miles southwest of Geneva to near De Funiak
Springs to near Eglin Air Force Base. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
De Funiak Springs, Eglin Air Force Base, Union, Ponce De Leon,
Westville, Douglass Crossroad, Cerrogordo, Prosperity, Arrant
Settlement, De Funiak Spring Airport, Rock Hill, Glendale,
Eucheeanna, Pleasant Hill, Pleasant Ridge, Center Ridge, New Home,
Knox Hill, Hickory Hill, and Piney Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3055 8639 3072 8620 3088 8618 3086 8585
      3066 8588 3063 8592 3061 8591 3053 8609
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 279DEG 15KT 3080 8606 3066 8608 3056 8630

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

58-REESE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
145 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

FLZ016-GAZ155-156-311830-
Gadsden FL-Decatur GA-Seminole GA-
145 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL GADSDEN...SOUTHERN
DECATUR AND SOUTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 145 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Chattahoochee, or 12 miles southwest of
Bainbridge, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Attapulgus, Climax, Laingkat, Fowlstown, Recovery, Dogtown, and
Faceville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3088 8442 3065 8446 3071 8481 3080 8480
      3080 8479 3082 8479 3083 8478 3084 8478
      3084 8477 3086 8477
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 274DEG 20KT 3077 8471

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

58-REESE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
243 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

GAZ127-128-311930-
Worth GA-Turner GA-
243 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN TURNER AND
NORTHWESTERN WORTH COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

At 243 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Arabi, or 8 miles west of Ashburn, moving east at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ashburn, Worth, Sycamore, Amboy, Hobby, Turner Co Airport, Dakota,
Sibley, and Doles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3164 8359 3166 8397 3181 8396 3184 8386
      3183 8385 3182 8385 3183 8384 3181 8383
      3181 8382 3180 8380 3180 8361 3185 8361
      3185 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 266DEG 13KT 3174 8379

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

58-REESE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
346 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

GAZ124>127-312030-
Worth GA-Lee GA-Dougherty GA-Terrell GA-
346 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN DOUGHERTY...SOUTHERN
LEE...SOUTHEASTERN TERRELL AND NORTHWESTERN WORTH COUNTIES THROUGH
430 PM EDT...

At 346 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Leesburg, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Leesburg, Albany, East Albany, Turner City, Sasser, Stocks,
Forrester, Bridges Crossroad, Palmyra, Century, Jordan Place, Dawson
Municipal A/P, Starksville, Byne Crossroads, Armena, Philema,
Chickasawhatchee, Mossy Dell, Oakfield, and Acree.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 8389 3155 8395 3160 8445 3181 8441
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 276DEG 13KT 3168 8424

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

58-REESE