What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 29, 1:12 PM EST, 2 hours 3 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) A Heat Advisory is in effect for coastal southern SC and counties roughly south of I-16 in southeast GA as hot and humid conditions dominate the forecast area again today.
- 2) High temperatures will be slightly above normal on Tuesday, then gradually rising through the holiday weekend. Heat Advisories could be needed during the holiday weekend across portions of our area.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 29, 1:12 PM EST, 2 hours 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
212 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A Heat Advisory is in effect for coastal southern SC and
counties roughly south of I-16 in southeast GA as hot and
humid conditions dominate the forecast area again today.
- 2) High temperatures will be slightly above normal on Tuesday,
then gradually rising through the holiday weekend. Heat
Advisories could be needed during the holiday weekend across
portions of our area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A Heat Advisory is in effect for coastal southern SC
and counties roughly south of I-16 in southeast GA as hot and humid
conditions dominate the forecast area again today.
Today the region will remain under the eastern periphery of mid-
level ridging centered over the Deep South. At the surface a weak
boundary will attempt to slide southward across the forecast area as
high pressure centered over New England nudges southward. While the
upper level pattern remains a very similar synoptic setup to
yesterday, the surface pattern is quite different. Whereas yesterday
the flow at the surface was westerly, yielding a pinned sea breeze,
today the flow will be much weaker and out of the NW. The sea breeze
is expected to begin its inland progression around 2 PM, a few hours
earlier than yesterday. With the surface setup today the region will
see less mixing out of dew points, allowing heat index values to
climb upwards of 108 degrees at several locations across the region.
A Heat Advisory is in effect from Beaufort County, SC southward to
counties roughly along and south of I-16 in southeastern GA through
6 PM this evening. Elsewhere conditions will still be hot and muggy,
but in the 100-105 degree heat index range (shy of Heat Advisory
criteria).
A fly in the ointment in regards to today's forecast is the potential
for afternoon convection. The 12Z CAMs are in fairly decent
agreement on scattered to widespread coverage across southeastern
GA, generally where the Heat Advisory is in effect. The Heat
Advisory may be canceled early if the coverage of convection is
great enough to lower heat index values below criteria. While
widespread severe weather is not anticipated, forecast soundings
show DCAPE values upwards of 1200 J/kg. Therefore, a strong to
marginally severe storm is possible, especially where boundary
interactions occur.
KEY MESSAGE 2: High temperatures will be slightly above normal on
Tuesday, then gradually rising through the holiday weekend. Heat
Advisories could be needed during the holiday weekend across
portions of our area.
Ridging aloft will remain the dominant synoptic feature this week,
initially centered over the TN Valley on Tuesday. It will then shift
eastward towards the East Coast by the end of the week and remain in
place through the holiday weekend. The main forecast highlight will
continue to be the temperatures. Wednesday will feature highs
slightly above normal, with temperatures warming to above normal
into the holiday weekend. High temperatures could again reach into
the mid to upper 90s late week and into the holiday weekend, which
combined with dewpoint values in the 70s will likely yield heat
index values in the 100-110 range. Heat Advisories could be required
for portions of the forecast area at the end of the week and into
the holiday weekend. Generally a dry forecast has been maintained,
with PoPs trending upwards towards a more typical summertime
pattern in the later half of the holiday weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Prevailing VFR through the 18Z TAF period at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. Winds
at KCHS/KJZI initially out of the NW around 18Z will shift to the
S/SE as the afternoon sea breeze works its way inland over the next
hour or so. KSAV has the best chance of seeing afternoon
showers/thunderstorms today, with a TEMPO group in place from 18 to
21Z. Once convection wanes this evening conditions overnight should
remain precipitation free, with winds shifting back to the NE in the
early morning hours.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are
possible with isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight: SE winds this afternoon
gusting to around 10 to 15 knots will shift to the NE, remaining
elevated.
Extended Marine: The synoptic pattern will generally support
winds from the NE or E through Thursday. Then, they will clock
around to the SW by Friday morning. Friday into the holiday
weekend, winds will have a typical summertime pattern. This will
consist of some backing during the day, with the highest winds
along the land/sea interface with the formation of the sea
breeze. Gusts could approach 20 kt, especially in Charleston
Harbor as the sea breeze moves through. At night, expect winds
to veer and possibly ease a few kt. Seas should stay 5 ft or
less. No Small Craft Advisories are expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
June 29:
KCHS: 99/1998
KSAV: 101/1959
July 4:
KCHS: 98/2023
KSAV: 99/1997
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
July 3:
KCHS: 78/2016
July 4:
KCHS: 79/2016
KSAV: 79/1931
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ114-115-137-
216>219-238>241.
SC...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for SCZ148-151.
MARINE...None.
&&In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 29, 1:02 PM EST, 2 hours 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
202 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026
GAZ101-SCZ147-148-151-291830-
Inland Jasper SC-Coastal Jasper SC-Beaufort SC-Effingham GA-
202 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT BEAUFORT...EFFINGHAM AND JASPER
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...
At 202 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles south of Tillman, moving south at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Bluffton, Ridgeland, Jasper, Rincon, Hardeeville, Purysburgh,
Ebenezer, Tillman, Switzerland and Stillwell.
This includes I-95 in South Carolina between mile markers 2 and 20.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards, TV or your local news
source for the latest information from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3246 8132 3254 8105 3234 8086 3220 8100
3223 8116 3230 8127
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 338DEG 11KT 3238 8109
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH
CPMSpecial weather statement, Jun 29, 1:35 PM EST, 1 hour 40 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
235 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026
SCZ147-148-151-291900-
Inland Jasper SC-Coastal Jasper SC-Beaufort SC-
235 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES
UNTIL 3 PM EDT...
At 235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pritchardville, moving south at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Hilton Head Island, Bluffton, Bellinger Hill Area, Hutchinson
Island, Jasper, Hardeeville, Pritchardville, Sun City, Levy and
Limehouse.
This includes I-95 in South Carolina between mile markers 2 and 9.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards, TV or your local news
source for the latest information from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3229 8112 3235 8093 3213 8081 3208 8098
3210 8100 3209 8103 3209 8106 3210 8109
3214 8112 3215 8111 3217 8113 3217 8111
3218 8112 3220 8111 3222 8115 3223 8114
3224 8116 3226 8114 3227 8114 3228 8112
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 338DEG 11KT 3223 8100
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH
CPMSpecial weather statement, Jun 29, 1:43 PM EST, 1 hour 32 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
243 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026
GAZ101-SCZ042-147-291930-
Effingham GA-Inland Jasper SC-Hampton SC-
243 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EFFINGHAM...JASPER AND HAMPTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...
At 243 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Scotia, moving south at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Estill, Furman, Scotia, Robertville, Pineland, Garnett, Tarboro,
Shirley and Clyo.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards, TV or your local news
source for the latest information from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3272 8135 3277 8114 3253 8102 3247 8130
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 344DEG 11KT 3270 8123
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
DPBSpecial weather statement, Jun 29, 1:58 PM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
258 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026
GAZ219-SCZ148-151-291945-
Coastal Jasper SC-Coastal Chatham GA-Beaufort SC-
258 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT BEAUFORT...JASPER AND CHATHAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...
At 258 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bellinger Hill Area, moving south at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Hilton Head Island, Bluffton, Tybee Island, Fort Pulaski National
Monument, Wilmington Island, Bellinger Hill Area, Hutchinson
Island, Midtown Savannah, Downtown Savannah and Thunderbolt.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards, TV or your local news
source for the latest information from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3210 8108 3221 8104 3223 8084 3209 8078
3205 8087 3205 8084 3203 8082 3199 8082
3195 8086 3189 8100 3205 8110 3209 8109
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 350DEG 10KT 3215 8096
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH
CPMSpecial weather statement, Jun 29, 2:25 PM EST, 50 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026
GAZ088-SCZ040-042-292015-
Hampton SC-Screven GA-Allendale SC-
325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SCREVEN...ALLENDALE AND HAMPTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...
At 325 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Millett, moving south at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Estill, Newington, Scotia, Burtons Ferry Landing, Hunters, Shirley,
Millhaven, Lena, Martin and Milbury.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards, TV or your local news
source for the latest information from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3307 8158 3309 8149 3272 8118 3264 8126
3258 8155 3297 8167 3305 8154 3305 8157
3306 8155 3306 8158 3307 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 338DEG 18KT 3301 8157
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH
CPM