Cold in Georgia, January 26 to 27, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
646 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Light snow showers along the Tennessee border should end by evening.

Winter Weather Advisory is no longer in effect with precipitation
having ended and sleet/ice impacts decreasing over much of the
area. An Extreme Cold Warning and Cold Weather Advisory remains
in place across the area tonight and Tuesday morning.

Chances for precipitation have increased slightly for the upcoming
weekend, but confidence remains low.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. For tonight, Extreme Cold Warning in effect for parts of the
mountains, and a Cold Weather Advisory in effect for the remainder
of the forecast area. Wind chills will be dangerously cold in
higher elevations, increasing the risk of frostbite. Power outages
following the ice storm could increase incidence of hypothermia
throughout the area, for individuals without access to heat.
2. Extended cold wave is expected, as temperatures will remain
well below normal through the end of the week. Dangerously cold
wind chills may return to some areas of the mountains Tuesday
through Friday nights.
3. Chance of snow this weekend with potential development of
low pressure near the Southeast coast. If snow were to fall,
it could easily reintroduce or worsen travel impacts due to the
cold temperatures prior to onset.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: For tonight, Extreme Cold Warning in effect for
parts of the mountains, and a Cold Weather Advisory in effect
for the remainder of the forecast area. Wind chills will be
dangerously cold in higher elevations, increasing the risk of
frostbite. Power outages following the ice storm could increase
incidence of hypothermia throughout the area, for individuals
without access to heat.

NW flow snow showers should diminish by late afternoon or early
evening over the mountains. Only light additional accums are
expected for most locations, a little more for the highest
elevations.

Temperatures will fall into the lower teens and single digits
tonight, with some high elevation locations near zero. With windy
conditions remaining across the mountains, wind chills are forecast
to fall to -15 or lower across Avery County, above 3500 feet across
the remainder of the Tennessee border counties and northern Jackson
County. The Extreme Cold Warning remains in place for these areas
for tonight and Tuesday morning. The rest of the CWA remains in a
Cold Weather Advisory even though winds drop off outside of the
mountains and in sheltered mountain valleys. This could keep some
locations from reaching criteria, but with power outages continuing,
it's prudent to keep an impact-minded Advisory for all areas outside
the Warning.

The windy conditions continue across the mountains into Tuesday, but
gusts should remain below advisory levels for all but the highest
elevations. Gusty winds diminish this evening outside of the
mountains but pick back up on Tuesday.

With full sun, highs should reach the upper 30s to lower 40s for
most on Tuesday. That said, high elevations could remain below
freezing.

Key message 2: Extended cold wave is expected, as temperatures will
remain well below normal through the end of the week. Dangerously
cold wind chills may return to some areas of the mountains Tuesday
through Friday nights.

We will be stuck in a cold weather pattern thru the week, with
a portion of the polar vortex extending into eastern Canada
and the northeastern CONUS. A series of vort lobes will swing
around the vortex and supply reinforcing shots of very cold air
southeastward across our region. That said, temperatures have
trended up slightly with this forecast cycle, possibly as models
incorporate less snow/sleet/ice accumulation than on earlier runs,
but forecast min/max values still remain 10 or more degrees below
normal through next weekend.

Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, northwest flow continues
across the mountains. Moisture is marginal, but a few flurries
or light rime icing could occur along the TN border. CAA will
remain strong at that time and gusts of 35-45 mph could occur
on ridgetops. Though temps won't be as cold as Monday night,
a few high elevation spots will see wind chill dip below -5F on
account of the wind. A shortwave will cross the area Wednesday,
helping to maintain similar NW winds and wind chills at that
time. Model/ensemble QPF response has diminished for Wed night and
PoP is no longer sufficient to include a slight-chance snow mention
in the NW Flow areas, but again flurries would be no surprise. Both
Tue and Wed nights, the high elevation wind chills appear marginal
for Cold Weather Advisory based on objective criteria, but even so,
the extremely cold temps may have an impact on infrastructure and
those vulnerable to the cold due to any pre-existing power outages.

Forecast temps are similar Thursday night, but with lighter winds
the extent of subzero wind chills is smaller, though impact still
could be higher than usual. Another shortwave/strong vort lobe will
pivot around the polar vortex and drop south thru the Midwest and
Ohio Valley Friday. This will allow another arctic high to slide
south across the middle of the CONUS, tightening the pressure
gradient across the CWFA. Temps should again trend colder by a
few degrees Friday night (back to single digits), and winds tick
upward as well. Hence, Cold Weather Advisory criteria may be met
even outside the mountains in spots, as low temps dip into the
teens there and Advisory threshold is warmer.  Based on two-day
average temperatures, all three of our climate sites (AVL, GSP,
CLT) look to be well within Cold Wave criteria heading into the
next weekend, so a Special Weather Statement may be issued to
address concerns about longer-duration cold leading to greater
impacts such as greater incidence of frozen pipes.

Key message 3: Chance of snow this weekend with potential development
of low pressure near the Southeast coast. If snow were to fall,
it could easily reintroduce or worsen travel impacts due to the
cold temperatures prior to onset.

26/12z GFS and GDPS are reasonably similar to the 26/00z ECMWF in
showing the Midwest shortwave cutting off into an upper low near
the southern Appalachians, inducing strong height falls Saturday as
far south as the Florida Panhandle. There remain some differences
in timing and depth of the low, but there is consensus for the
upper low to induce cyclogenesis near the GA/SC coast Saturday
or early Sunday. The number of global ensemble members depicting
this evolution have increased since this time yesterday. Some GEFS
members still develop light snow downstream of the mountains in
NC/VA as a result of the shortwave itself, so that can't be written
off either, just yet, and if nothing else light NW Flow snow could
result in the usual area. Nevertheless, sfc temps are forecast
to be below freezing over almost all the area Saturday owing to
the freshly arrived Arctic airmass. LREF member sounding wet-bulb
profiles are virtually all below freezing thru the column, and fwiw,
pattern recognition and partial thickness nomogram technique suggest
p-type would be all snow as well. It appears to be mainly whether
the developing precip shield extends far enough NW to include our
CWA. This probability has increased and so PoPs are now in the 30%
range for a portion of the Piedmont. The situation continues to
bear watching, given that the prolonged cold temps ahead of this
system would make even light snow stick to roads more than usual,
and lead to slippery conditions. Precip chances currently peak over
the Piedmont Saturday but NW Flow snow could continue into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The KHKY ASOS is now reporting observations.
Expect dry, VFR conditions and mostly clear skies to continue thru
the 00z taf period. Winds outside of the mtns will remain N to NW
and gusty thru late tonight, losing their gusts after midnight or
so. They should go light and VRB by early Tuesday morning and then
pick back up from the SW Tuesday afternoon with another round of
low-end gusts expected. At KAVL, winds will remain N/NW thru the
taf period with gusts eventually tapering off overnight. They will
likely see another round of lower-end gusts Tues afternoon/evening.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue thru most of the
week under a cold and dry air mass.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 01-27

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      80 1999     17 1940     54 1916      2 1986
   KCLT      75 1890     24 1940     58 1890      6 1940
   KGSP      73 1954     29 1940     57 1949      8 1940

RECORDS FOR 01-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      75 1914      7 1897     52 1916     -2 1986
                                                    1897
   KCLT      79 1944     20 1897     59 1916      5 1986
   KGSP      77 1944     29 1986     55 1957      5 1986

RECORDS FOR 01-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      76 2002     25 1977     52 1917     -1 1897
                            1897
   KCLT      79 2002     29 2014     59 1957      8 1897
   KGSP      78 2002     27 1897     57 1957      6 1897
                                        1916

RECORDS FOR 01-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      76 2002     11 1966     55 1950     -7 1966
                                        1914
   KCLT      78 2002     19 1966     59 1914      4 1966
   KGSP      76 1975     20 1966     53 2002     -6 1966

RECORDS FOR 01-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      78 1975     13 1909     57 1950      1 1966
   KCLT      77 1975     27 1909     59 1950      4 1966
   KGSP      79 1975     31 1934     60 1950      3 1966
                            1909

RECORDS FOR 02-01

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      74 1950     22 1898     55 1950      4 1909
   KCLT      76 1950     27 1900     55 1896     10 1900
   KGSP      73 1957     30 1980     56 1969      9 1900
                            1936        1950
                                        1916

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for NCZ035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     Extreme Cold Warning until noon EST Tuesday for NCZ033-048>052-
     059.
SC...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for SCZ008>014-
     019-101>109.

&&

JCW/JPT/RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1231 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-271745-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-
Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
1231 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Cold Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Cold Weather Advisory.

Temperatures will remain very cold through the entire week.
A reinforcing cold front will bring the threat of very low wind
chills again on Wednesday night and Thursday night. This prolonged
period of cold temperatures will be especially dangerous due to the
possibility of extended power outages resulting from this weekend's
storm. Roads likely will remain icy and treacherous through early
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>052-059-271745-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Northern Jackson-
1231 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

...EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST TUESDAY BELOW 3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Cold Warning.

Gusty northwest winds of 35 to 45 mph are likely across the
mountains above 3500 feet through this evening. These winds may
cause some power outages, especially in any areas that had
significant ice accretions from yesterday's storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Cold Warning.

Temperatures will remain very cold through the entire week.
A reinforcing cold front will bring the threat of very low wind
chills again on Wednesday night and Thursday night. This prolonged
period of cold temperatures will be especially dangerous due to the
possibility of extended power outages resulting from this weekend's
storm. Roads likely will remain icy and treacherous through early
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-NCZ053-058-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-271745-
Rabun-Buncombe-Graham-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
1231 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Cold Weather Advisory.

Gusty northwest winds of 35 to 45 mph are likely across the
mountains above 3500 feet through this evening. These winds may
cause some power outages, especially in any areas that had
significant ice accretions from yesterday's storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Cold Weather Advisory.

Temperatures will remain very cold through the entire week.
A reinforcing cold front will bring the threat of very low wind
chills again on Wednesday night and Thursday night. This prolonged
period of cold temperatures will be especially dangerous due to the
possibility of extended power outages resulting from this weekend's
storm. Roads likely will remain icy and treacherous through early
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
714 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-270900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-
Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City,
Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Boydville,
Toccoa, Royston, Gumlog, Lavonia, Franklin Springs, Canon,
Hartwell, Nuberg, Reed Creek, Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton,
Ruckersville, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem, Ellendale,
Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville,
Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville,
Black Mountain, Candler, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens,
Salisbury, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva,
Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain,
Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville,
Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Shelby,
Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Charlotte, Concord,
Kannapolis, Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, Patterson,
Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge,
Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill,
Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood,
Chimney Rock State Park, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale,
Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, Gaffney, Catawba,
Rock Hill, Anderson, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Laurens, Clinton,
Union, Monarch Mills, Blackstock, Chester, Cornwell, Great Falls,
Ware Shoals, Ninety Six, Mountain Rest, Rocky Bottom,
Glassy Mountain, Seneca, Walhalla, Oakway, Westminster, Easley,
Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville, Taylors, Greer, Berea, Mauldin,
Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Fountain Inn, Boiling Springs Sc,
Fingerville, Duncan, Lyman, Landrum, Wellford, Inman,
and Spartanburg
714 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

...PATCHY BLACK ICE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

Lingering moisture and runoff from this weekend's wintry precipitation
will create patchy black ice on area roads tonight and Tuesday morning
as temperatures remain well below freezing. Be prepared for slick spots,
especially on bridges and overpasses and any untreated roadways. Use
extra caution when walking on sidewalks, driveways, and in parking lots.
Temperatures will likely remain below freezing thru late Tuesday morning.

JPT