Tornado and Damaging Wind in Florida, May 26, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
239 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 235 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue through Wednesday.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the
  afternoon and evening hours through Wednesday, then at almost
  anytime Thursday through at least next Tuesday.

- An increasingly wet pattern is expected late in the week through
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Broad upper-level ridging remains in place over and to the east of
the Florida peninsula. The surface ridge axis also remains to the
east in response, with a fairly tight pressure gradient over the
state driving a surface ESE flow. Some drier air is wrapping around
the back side of the high and advecting over the area in the mid-
levels. However, daytime low-level sea breeze convergence is slowly
adding additional moisture to the column, and this will continue
over the next few hours. Thus, shower and thunderstorm activity is
anticipated once again this afternoon/evening, primarily along and
west of the I-75 corridor. With the drier air, this favors a higher
threat for strong gusty winds in storms that do form. Hail is also
not out of the question if more robust updrafts form. Lightning and
heavy rainfall should be expected with any storm that forms.

This is the final day of this pattern before we begin to see a
transition take place. As the ridge axis shifts farther east and
eventually is suppressed by an amplified upper-level pattern, the
flow will shift to a more southerly and then WSW flow by the end of
the week. As this takes place, deep tropical moisture will advect
over the state, leading to greater coverage in showers and
thunderstorms. Notably it also means that thunderstorms won't just
be possible in the afternoon/evening hours, but also overnight and
in the morning hours as well. There could, in fact, be multiple
rounds of rain each day. Overall, this is a good thing given the
current drought conditions across the region.

This pattern will continue into next week, meaning that warm, humid
weather will continue with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day. With extra cloud cover, it won't likely get
quite as hot during the day - but it also won't cool a whole lot at
night either. So expect a wet and pattern into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Some showers have begun to develop, and this is expected to continue
with storms consolidating along the west coast over the next several
hours. The best potential for impacts exists around Tampa Bay
area terminals. As these storms consolidate near the coast this
evening, there will be a higher potential for microbursts, in
addition to temporary MVFR and IFR flight conditions. Some storms
may linger late tonight near some coastal terminals as well.
Thunderstorms will again be possible late tomorrow afternoon and
into the evening, but will become increasingly possible at nearly
anytime as deep tropical moisture moves over the state beginning
on Thursday and lasting into next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

One final day of ESE flow is expected tomorrow, with showers and
thunderstorms moving off the coast late in the day and into the
night. With breezy conditions continuing, this will also keep seas
in the 2 to 3 foot range, outside of thunderstorms where winds and
seas will be higher. Beginning Thursday and into Friday, the winds
will gradually veer to a WSW flow. This will bring additional
moisture and higher chances for showers and thunderstorms to coastal
waters at nearly any time, and will keep seas of 2 to 3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Ample moisture remains across the region with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day. Rain becomes even more
widespread as the weekend approaches, gradually alleviating drought
concerns. While there could be some high dispersions over the next
couple days with breezy conditions, overall fire weather concerns
are low through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  77  87 /  60  30  50  70
FMY  76  93  76  90 /  20  50  40  70
GIF  75  92  75  89 /  60  70  60  80
SRQ  74  91  75  88 /  50  30  50  60
BKV  72  92  72  89 /  60  30  50  70
SPG  77  91  77  89 /  50  30  50  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

Flannery

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
511 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

FLZ251-255-262145-
Inland Manatee FL-Inland Hillsborough FL-
511 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MANATEE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 511 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Parrish, or 17 miles east of Palmetto, moving northwest
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Parrish, Greater Sun Center, and Wimauma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2753 8218 2746 8225 2755 8248 2773 8230
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 133DEG 17KT 2754 8229

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TBW