Dense Fog in Florida, March 5, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
123 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated Thunderstorm possible along the I-75 corridor this FL
  today and again Friday

- Sea Fog & Periodic Inland Dense Fog Daily through Weekend.
  When sea fog develops it will drift inland during the evening.

- High Risk for Rip Currents Today for Ponte Vedra Beach
  southward. Elevated Rip Current Risk elsewhere and continues
  through the through Next Week

- Record Inland Highs Potential Thursday through Next Tuesday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT:

    - Areas of dense fog expected early to mid morning,
      especially over southeast GA and the St. Johns River
      Basin

Fog and low clouds are much slower to develop early this morning as
compared to Wednesday Morning, though expected to pick up over the
next several hours and persist through about mid morning for most of
the area. With flow starting to establish itself as more
southeasterly rather than easterly, confidence in areas of fog
decreases rather quickly for areas further south and west, such as
for cities like Ocala and Gainesville and for areas generally
along the I-75 corridor south of I-10. That being said, still
anticipating at least areas of dense fog over parts of the St.
Johns River Basin and southeast GA, likely becoming more patchy
the further south and west you go.

Fog and low clouds dissipate around mid morning, with another very
mild day for many with a southeasterly flow. The increase in low
level moisture that has built up over the past few days will also
bring chances for convective showers further inland during the
afternoon and evening as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland.
Highest chances for a few showers will be generally towards I-75 in
FL, though a few showers will be possible as far north as western
inland GA counties. Though enough moisture will be in place for some
convective showers, the combination of PWATs only around the 1.2 to
1.4 in range and minimal instability will result in very low chances
for any thunder. Above normal temps continue for the vast majority
of the area, with low to mid 80s common inland and only in the mid
to upper 70s closer to the immediate coast.

Tonight will feature mild lows a few degrees warmer than Thursday
Morning, with chances for fog returning for much of the area as
well. Short term guidance is rather split and generally not as
aggressive with fog potential over the area at this time, however
still expecting at least patchy fog to return for most of the area,
becoming locally dense at times in some spots. Min temps in the low
to mid 60s will be common.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Main Highlights Fri-Sat:

    - Nightly fog and stretches of sea fog lasting through the
      morning.
    - Few to Scattered inland showers daily; isolated t'storm
      Friday afternoon
    - Warming Trend, approaching records each day

Warming southeasterly flow will lead to days of near record highs
and even record high minimum temperatures under the influence of an
upper ridge that'll be sliding eastward further into the Atlantic
through the period. The strong temperature gradient between the
inland heat and the cool shelf waters will drive a modestly strong
sea breeze inland each day. Increasing southerly flow will bring
some mid level moisture back into the mid levels on Friday which
combined with the diurnal heating and surface moisture may lead to
an isolated thunderstorm during the late afternoon along the I-75
corridor. With thunder probs (10-20%), confidence still isn't there
to mention any extensive area where thunderstorms are possible
Friday.

Upper ridge will begin to break down and shift east on Saturday  as
the flow aloft trends broadly more cyclonic. Overall, similar
expectations are expected on Saturday with less of threat for
isolated PM storms as drier air moves back into the mid levels.

The already moist boundary layer, amplified by the daily sea breeze
pushes, will set up each night for fog development. Radiative fog
and an advective fog from the coastal waters will be possible each
night. At a minimum, locally dense fog is expected each morning.

Inland temperatures will challenge daily records this period as
highs climb to the upper 80s. The beaches and coastal zones will
stay about 5-10 degrees cooler due to the prevailing onshore flow.
Lows will be quite mild as well, also challenging records, with
minimum temps in the low/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main Weather Highlights Sun-Thur:

 - Near record high temperatures for inland areas
 - Nightly Fog Potential Continues
 - Increasing chance for thunderstorms late next week
 - Elevated rip current risk amid persistent onshore flow and swells

Pattern shift continues Sunday into Monday as westerly flow aloft
envelopes the region. This will halt an approaching front, stalling
it to the northwest while a locally persistent southeasterly flow
prevails, pushing the east coast sea breeze well inland each day
through Tuesday. Diurnal instability will be marginal each day
during this stretch, but sufficient low level moisture appears to be
in place to support a slight chances of showers along the sea breeze
as it moves inland each afternoon. Medium range guidance is honing
in on the next upper trough and attendant cold front reaching the
region Thursday bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms. While
this may bring a needed rainfall, the drought-stricken vegetation
may be susceptible to lightning ignitions. Above normal
temperatures at inland locations will continue and make a push
toward the 90 degree mark each day. The potential for nightly bouts
of radiative fog continues during this period with little change in
the boundary layer moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Fog/low stratus development has been overall slower to develop
tonight as compared to the previous few nights. That being said,
confidence is still moderate to high that fog will develop closer to
the northeast FL and southeast GA coasts over the next several hours
and spread inland through around sunrise. Guidance has backed off
with fog potential for further south and western areas, including
GNV which have backed off slightly accordingly. However, confidence
certainly is not high enough to alter the forecast considerably as
still expected periods of IFR ceilings and vsbys. Elsewhere, mostly
adjusted timing of when FG/stratus impacts begin based on latest
trends with this forecast update. Any fog or low stratus will
dissipate mid to late morning, with VFR expected to return for the
rest of the forecast period as well as a southeasterly breezy around
or just under 10 kts across regional terminals. Fog potential will
return tonight, though any impacts will be at the very end or after
the current forecast period with uncertainty still to high.

&&

.MARINE...

Dense sea fog at times will lead to difficult navigation conditions
across the waters through the rest of the week, especially during
overnight periods. There will be periods over the next few days
where fog lifts to stratus, but prevailing visibilities will
generally be low, especially within about 20 to 30nm from the coast.
Sea fog is likely to continue through the weekend as warm, moist air
is pushed across the water by southeasterly flow. Otherwise, surface
high pressure will remain fairly stationary, near Bermuda,
throughout the next week.

Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds shift more east to
southeasterly today, with breakers of 3-4 feet at the northeast FL
beaches and 2-3 feet at the southeast GA beaches. Rip current risk
will be high over northeast FL beaches today along the St. Johns and
Flagler County coastlines, and higher end moderate for the rest of
area beaches. A similar trends is likely to continue through Friday
as well. An elevated rip current risk will continue through the
weekend and into early next week at area beaches as persistent
southeasterly winds prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures will trend warmer through the weekend, near record
levels for early March, through the weekend under the influence of a
dominant upper ridge. A prolonged, moist southeasterly flow will
bolster the Atlantic sea breeze each afternoon and widely scattered
showers are possible along the sea breeze, especially Friday
afternoon, with the best chances along the I-75 corridor. The moist
airmass will carry the potential for nightly fog, which may become
locally dense. Fair to good afternoon dispersion and favorable
humidity trends will persist through the weekend. Pattern shift next
week with a frontal system possible Wednesday/Thursday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of fog may become locally
dense each night. Moderate sea breeze is expected with easterly
winds 10-15 mph pushing it across the region for the next several
afternoons.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 5:
KGNV: 87/1997

March 6:
KGNV: 87/2023
KAMG: 86/1961

March 7:
KGNV: 88/2023
KAMG: 86/1956

March 8:
KJAX: 88/1945
KGNV: 88/1921
KAMG: 86/1974
KCRG: 86/1998

March 9:
KJAX: 88/2024
KGNV: 89/1907
KAMG: 88/1974

March 10:
KGNV: 90/1974
KAMG: 88/1974
KCRG: 86/2019

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 7:
KGNV: 66/1935

March 8:
KGNV: 65/1973

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  61  84  61 /  10  10  20  10
SSI  73  60  73  61 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  83  61  84  61 /  10   0  20   0
SGJ  78  62  79  62 /  10  10  20  10
GNV  86  62  88  62 /  20  10  30  10
OCF  87  63  88  63 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ138-233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&