NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 5, 3:02 PM AKST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 5, 3:02 PM AKST, 17 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure overhead will continue to lead to cold, quiet, and dry
conditions across Northern Alaska through tonight, with a strong low
pressure system moving into Southcentral Alaska tonight into Friday.
As this system lifts north, a front will work over the Alaska Range
into the Interior throughout the day Friday, supporting widespread
snow chances through Saturday night. Best snow chances will remain
confined southeast of a line from Bettles to the Yukon Delta, with
snowfall amounts around 1-5" with 5-10" in the Alaska Range. For
FNSB, we are expecting around 3-5" of snow. Winds have already
ramped up along the West Coast and are expected to remain elevated
through the weekend, leading to areas of blowing snow and possible
blizzard conditions as conditions remain dry. Across the Interior,
winds will broadly increase Friday into Friday night and will be
strongest across higher elevations and around Delta Junction.
Warmer temperatures will accompany this system across the Central
and Eastern Interior as cold conditions persist further north/west.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cold, quiet, and dry conditions will continue across the
Interior through tonight, with increasing clouds tonight into
Friday as a low pressure system moves into Southcentral.
- Moisture from this system will work over the Alaska Range and
build into the Interior throughout the day Friday, supporting
widespread accumulating snowfall through Saturday.
- Accumulating total snowfall amounts Friday through Saturday
night will remain south of Bettles around 2-6", with locally
higher totals in the Alaska Range around 5-10", and locally
lighter totals across the Upper Tanana Valley around 1-2". For
FNSB, look for 3-5" of snow.
- Winds will ramp up across the Interior Friday into Saturday,
strongest across higher elevations and around Delta Junction,
leading to areas of blowing snow at times. Wind gusts will peak
around 20-40 mph.
- Warmer temperatures will accompany the increased cloud cover and
widespread snowfall through Saturday, with temperatures trending
colder early next week as skies clear and drier conditions
return.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Winds have ramped up today along the West Coast with gusts of
20-40 mph from the NW Arctic Coast through the Bering Straight
to St. Lawrence Island. Otherwise, cold and dry conditions
persist.
- As a low pressure system moves into Southcentral and the
Interior Friday into Saturday, wind will broadly increase across
Western Alaska with strongest winds expected along the West
Coast with gusts of 30-50 mph, locally stronger up to 60 mph.
- Associated with the strongest winds, areas of blowing snow could
lead to localized blizzard conditions at times.
- Light snow from this system will move into the southeast Western
Interior Friday into Saturday, with snowfall amounts around
1-3".
- Warmer temperatures will accompany the increased cloud cover and
widespread snowfall across the Western Interior through
Saturday, as conditions remain cold and dry further west.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue through the
weekend, with isolated snow showers possible at times as areas
of low stratus persist.
- Northerly winds have ramped up along the NW Arctic Coast, and
are expected to remain elevated through Saturday night.
Northeast winds will increase across the Brooks Range Friday and
Saturday. Gusty winds could lead to areas of blowing snow at
times, especially further west and in the Brooks Range.
- Conditions will remain cold into early next week, with
temperatures reaching down into the 20s and 30s below zero.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows clear skies across much of
Northern Alaska, with a strengthening low pressure system in the
Pacific lifting north into the Gulf of Alaska and Southcentral. The
exception to these clear skies is across the North Slope where a low
lying cloud deck persists which is producing isolated snow showers.
Clear skies and a cold airmass in place continues to support
seasonably cold temperatures during the overnight hours. As each day
passes, the sun angle continues to increase which has allowed for a
20-30 degree diurnal range in temperatures across the West Coast and
Interior.
As the low center in the Northern Pacific tracks northeast over
Kodiak Island into the Kenai Peninsula tonight into Friday morning
and strengthens down to a central pressure of ~965 mb, a front will
be ejected north over the Alaska Range into the Interior. This will
work to support widespread snowfall, increased winds, and warmer
temperatures. Snowfall will first begin in the Alaska Range early
Friday morning, lifting north into the Interior throughout the
daytime hours. This system will be tapping into subtropical moisture
extending from a well organized atmospheric river in the Pacific,
which even with downsloping from the Alaska Range will remain
conducive for widespread light snowfall across the Interior.
Snow will be heaviest across the Interior and Alaska Range late
Friday through Friday night and Saturday morning, tapering off late
Saturday into Saturday night with dry conditions back for Sunday
outside of very isolated snow showers. Best accumulating snow
chances will remain confined southeast of a line from Bettles to the
Yukon Delta, with snowfall amounts around 1-5" with 5-10" in the
Alaska Range. For FNSB, we are expecting around 3-4" of snow. This
snowfall forecast represents a middle of the road forecast, with the
biggest uncertainty with this event surrounding snow ratios. Lower
snow ratios? Lesser, more dense snow totals. Higher snow ratios?
Lighter, fluffier snow. A complicating factor will be stronger winds
aloft, with lower snow ratios expected initially that will give way
to higher ratios over the duration of the system. Winter Weather
Advisories have been expanded to include a larger portion of the
Interior for around 3-6" of snow.
With respect to winds, we have already begun to see winds ramp up
along the West Coast with gusts around 20-40 mph, which are expected
to increase tomorrow and expand to higher elevations across Northern
Alaska and the Delta Junction area. A combination of blowing snow
and or falling snow could lead to visibility down to around 1/2 to
1/4 mile at times, with Blizzard Warnings in effect for the Bering
Strait and Diomede and a Winter Weather Advisory in effect from
Kivalina and Red Dog Dock to Point Hope and Point Lay. Across the
Interior, winds will be strongest across higher elevations and
around the Middle Tanana Valley which could lead to areas of blowing
snow at times. Pockets of blowing snow outside of these areas will
also remain possible where the best overlap of falling snow and
gusty winds set up.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Sunday through next Thursday.
A good portion of western Alaska will return to a state of
northerly flow aloft with the building ridge in the Bering and
troughing over the Al- Can boarder. This will allow for another
cold, Arctic airmass to move back in over the state. This would
result in those cold temperatures returning, however, global
models are showing the potential for energy and moisture to linger
over the eastern portion of the state. This would keep the
chances for scattered snow in place, this would help limit some of
the colder temperatures. These features will continue to be
monitored over the next couple of days as slight deviations in the
ridge or trough could result in various outcomes.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801-815-832-834-835-837-839-
847>849.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ850.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-840>846.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-805.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-852.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-810-817.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-816-851-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
Gale Warning for PKZ854-856.
&&
SYNOPSIS.....MacKay
KEY POINTS...MacKay
SHORT TERM...MacKay
LONG TERM....Twombly