A continued lack of rainfall allowed pre-existing drought conditions to worsen in the month of March with much of South Florida remaining a severe to extreme drought.
Every event with a place to put it; 15 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
A continued lack of rainfall allowed pre-existing drought conditions to worsen in the month of March with much of South Florida remaining a severe to extreme drought.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 6:26 PM EST, 5 hours 34 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
626 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible over
parts of metro SE Florida and around Lake Okeechobee this
afternoon, with the primary threat being strong/damaging
wind. However, an isolated threat exists for severe hail and
a funnel cloud or tornado.
- Patchy dense fog possible again tomorrow morning, mainly
across interior South Florida and Southwest Florida.
- Smoke from wildfire activity may still create dangerous
driving conditions across portions of I-75, Tamiami Trail,
and SR-29 today.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 156 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026
We are starting to see convection develop across the lake region
and Palm Beach county early this afternoon. With low-level
prevailing SW flow and the easterly Atlantic sea breeze moving
inland, the greatest threat for severe storms will be over Palm
Beach and Broward counties this afternoon as the sea breeze gets
pinned and convergence occurs between the sea breeze and low-
level SW flow. This convergence will also support the risk for an
isolated funnel cloud or tornado.
As covered in the previous discussions, the convective parameters
are adequate for a few severe storms today, particularly in the
form of wind as current ACARS soundings highlight an inverted-V
setup from the 800mb height level down to the surface. This type
of sounding will support the possibility of sudden downdrafts as
rain cooled air can rush to the surface and is highlighted with
DCAPE (downdraft CAPE) near 1000 J/kg. This threat will end in the
evening as nocturnal cooling begins.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1236 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026
South Florida sits just to the south of a decaying frontal
boundary early this morning. With light southerly moisture
advection and light surface winds, fog development is likely once
again early this morning especially across Southwest Florida and
local Gulf waters. Residual smoke from the National & Regal fires
in southwestern Florida may act to create exceptionally dense fog
across these areas, resulting in visibilities nearing zero at
times and dangerous driving conditions. Motorists are advised to
exercise extra caution if traveling along inland routes through
9am this morning, especially along Alligator Alley and SR-29 in
Collier/Hendry counties.
The decaying frontal boundary will continue to progress very slowly
southward through the day today while likely remaining just to the
north of the forecast area as a shortwave transverses the SE CONUS.
This should keep South Florida in the envelope of deeper tropical
moisture. The continued increase of low-level moisture and passage
of the shortwave could help facilitate the development of a few
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. While it will be possible for most of South Florida to see
a few showers today, the focus of convection will develop near the
Lake Okeechobee region during the late afternoon/early evening with
showers and storms eventually pushing off the Palm Beach coast.
Potential hazards include gusty winds, small hail, and a non-zero
chance of a quick spin-up tornado in this type of setup.
Rain chances will decrease slightly on Sunday as the frontal
boundary slowly sags and eventually stalls across South Florida.
Surface flow will eventually veer northeasterly through the day as
the boundary fizzles and pressure gradient begins to tighten. Enough
moisture will remain in place to support a few coastal showers
during the morning hours, and scattered showers to isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.
High temperatures today and tomorrow will reach the low to mid
80s with lows in the 60s overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1236 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026
As the frontal boundary becomes frontolytic in the vicinity of our
region on Monday, the moisture associated with it will remain across
the region. With the departure of the mid-level shortwave well to
the east of the region and the departure of the subtropical jet-
stream well to the north of the region, a quiet period on the
synoptic scale is ushered into the region as a mid-level ridge of
high pressure develops over the Gulf and gradually slides eastwards
towards South Florida on Tuesday. Breezy conditions are forecast to
develop by the Tuesday-Wednesday time period as the surface pressure
gradient tightens, mainly along the east coast where winds could
gust 20-25 mph Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Precipitable water
values in the 1.3 to 1.6 range will support the potential of
isolated to scattered showers each day throughout the upcoming work-
week perhaps maximized along the immediate east coastline and over
local waters. Prevailing conditions by far will remain mostly sunny
throughout the week as any shower activity should be brief.
Forecast high temperatures will range from the upper 70s to low 80s
along the East coast to mid to upper 80s along the Gulf coast,
Monday through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026
Generally VFR for the period. Lingering TS/SHRA around KPBI should
taper off in the next few hours along with winds becoming light
overnight. Another round of low CIGs will be possible for KAPF
tonight, along with an outside chance for lower CIGs for some of
the east coast terminals. This chance is low, so have only hinted
at it for now with monitoring continuing overnight. By 15-16Z
tomorrow, winds increase out of the NE to around 10 kts for the
day. No mention of VCSH/VCTS yet for tomorrow afternoon or evening as
chances are lower, but this will be monitored as well.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1236 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026
Outside of locally elevated seas and winds in and around any shower
or thunderstorm activity, conditions will remain benign across all
local waters through the weekend. Locally dense fog may occur this
morning across the nearshore Gulf and Lake Okeechobee waters, which
will result in lower visibilities than normal. The development of a
pressure gradient next week will act to establish a breezy to at
times gusty easterly wind flow across the region during the
beginning of next week. This will usher in a duration of likely
Advisory conditions across the Atlantic waters during this time
frame.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1236 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026
Light southerly winds across the region today will result in a low
risk for rip currents across all South Florida beaches. With winds
forecast to enhance out of an easterly onshore direction early next
week, an elevated risk of rip currents is forecast to return along
the east coast of South Florida.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 69 81 68 79 / 20 40 40 20
West Kendall 63 83 64 82 / 10 40 40 20
Opa-Locka 67 82 67 81 / 30 50 40 20
Homestead 66 82 68 80 / 10 40 30 20
Fort Lauderdale 68 78 68 77 / 40 50 40 20
N Ft Lauderdale 68 78 68 78 / 40 50 30 20
Pembroke Pines 67 83 67 82 / 30 50 40 20
West Palm Beach 66 78 67 78 / 50 40 30 20
Boca Raton 66 79 67 79 / 50 50 30 20
Naples 64 81 63 82 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...RedmanThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
15 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe to extreme drought continued across coastal Broward County in March.
Severe to extreme drought continued across coastal Collier County in March.
Severe to extreme drought continued across coastal Miami-Dade County in March.
Severe to extreme drought continued across coastal Palm Beach County in March.
Severe to extreme drought continued across far south Miami-Dade County in March.
Severe to extreme drought continued across Glades County in March.
Severe to extreme drought continued across Hendry County in March.
Severe to extreme drought continued across inland Broward County in March.
Severe to extreme drought continued across inland Collier County in March.
Severe to extreme drought continued across inland Miami-Dade County in March.
Severe to extreme drought continued across inland Palm Beach County in March.
Severe to extreme drought continued across mainland Monroe County in March.
Severe to extreme drought continued across metro Broward County in March.
Severe to extreme drought continued across metro Palm Beach County in March.
Severe to extreme drought continued across metropolitan Miami-Dade County in March.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, March 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1327343, 1327345, 1327346, 1327347, 1327348, 1327349, 1327352, 1327353, 1327354, 1327355, 1327356, 1327358, 1327359, 1327360, 1327361.