What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 26, 2:43 PM EST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Scattered Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms through Saturday. Strong to Isolated Storms Possible through Early this Evening, Mainly Along the U.S.-301 & I-95 Corridors. Hazards: Winds of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Heavy Downpours. -Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms Expected on Sunday
- Hot & Humid Conditions Continue through Monday. Heat Advisories Possible on Sunday and Monday, when Afternoon Heat Indices Peak at 105 - 110 F.
- Numerous Thunderstorms Expected on Monday Afternoon and Evening, with Strong to Isolated Severe Storm Potential.
- Minor Flooding Continues along the Satilla River in Southeast GA.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 26, 2:43 PM EST, 1 hour 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
343 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Scattered Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms through
Saturday. Strong to Isolated Storms Possible through Early
this Evening, Mainly Along the U.S.-301 & I-95 Corridors.
Hazards: Winds of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes &
Heavy Downpours.
-Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon and Evening
Thunderstorms Expected on Sunday
- Hot & Humid Conditions Continue through Monday. Heat
Advisories Possible on Sunday and Monday, when Afternoon Heat
Indices Peak at 105 - 110 F.
- Numerous Thunderstorms Expected on Monday Afternoon and
Evening, with Strong to Isolated Severe Storm Potential.
- Minor Flooding Continues along the Satilla River in Southeast
GA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights Today and Tonight:
- Widely Scattered afternoon T'storms, becoming more numerous
along the I-95 and US-17 corridors late this afternoon.
- Strong to isolated severe storm potential along I-95 corridor.
Prevailing southwesterly flow is in place over the forecast area
today as flow is angled between high pressure ridging pressing
in from out of the Atlantic and high pressure situated to the
west over the northern Gulf. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms will develop across the forecast area through the
afternoon and into this evening, with stronger storms more
likely to develop along the diurnal sea breeze in the vicinity
of the I-95 corridor and along areas of convergence. Convection
is expected to become dispersed and move offshore later tonight
with southwesterly winds becoming mild and variable overnight.
High temperatures for this afternoon will rise into the lower to
mid 90s over inland areas and in the lower 90s along the
coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the
lower to mid 70s over inland areas and in the mid 70s for areas
nearer to the coast. Heat index values are expected to be over
100 for portions of southeast Georgia and almost all of
northeast Florida, however conditions for today are expected to
remain below Heat Advisory levels.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Scattered Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms on Saturday.
- Thunderstorm Coverage Decreases Somewhat on Sunday.
- Summertime Heat and Humidity Builds this Weekend, with Heat
Advisory Conditions Possible on Sunday Afternoon.
Our region will be positioned between a building "Heat Wave"
ridge and a flattening Atlantic ridge aloft on Saturday, with
low and mid level southwesterly flow continuing across our area
as surface ridging continues to extend its axis westward across
the FL peninsula. Mid-level flow will tend to veer to a more
westerly direction as ridging to our west becomes amplified by
late Saturday afternoon and evening. Strengthening subsidence
associated with this building "Heat Wave" ridge over the
Mississippi Valley will tend to limit diurnal convective
activity across inland southeast GA and northern portions of the
Suwannee Valley. Scattered convection is expected elsewhere,
with a dominant Gulf coast sea breeze developing activity along
the I-75 corridor in north central FL during the early afternoon
hours, with a few stronger storms potentially developing for
locations along and east of the U.S. Highway 301 corridor in
northeast and north central FL as mesoscale boundaries such as
the Atlantic sea breeze and the St. Johns River breeze interact
with convection approaching from the west and southwest. Heights
aloft will begin to rise as ridging builds to the west of our
area, and highs will soar to the low and mid 90s all the way to
coastal locations as prevailing southwesterly flow tends to
"pin" the Atlantic sea breeze along and east of I-95 through the
mid- afternoon hour. The combination of heat and humidity will
create peak heat indices of 100-108 degrees on Saturday
afternoon, which means that a few locations could approach Heat
Advisory criteria.
Convection should remain largely diurnal in nature this weekend,
with activity along the I-95 corridor winding down around or
shortly after sunset both on Saturday and Sunday. Coverage may
decrease slightly on Sunday as ridging aloft strengthens over
the lower Mississippi Valley and expands southeastward into our
area. However, enough moisture will remain in place for isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms to develop, mainly for
locations along and east of U.S. Highway 301 in southeast GA,
northeast and north central FL, where mesoscale boundaries will
collide during the mid to late afternoon hours. Less convective
coverage and increasing subsidence, supplied by the "Heat Wave"
ridge to our west will allow highs to soar to the mid and upper
90s across most of our area, with Heat Index values potentially
peaking in the 105-110 degree range that would prompt Heat
Advisories for at least portions of our area. Overnight lows on
Saturday and Sunday nights will only fall to the mid or upper
70s at most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Heat Advisory Conditions Possible Monday.
- Numerous Thunderstorms on Monday, with Strong Storm Potential
During the Afternoon and Evening Hours.
- Temperatures Cool Slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday as a
"Backdoor" Frontal Boundary Stalls Over Our Area.
"Heat Wave" ridging centered over the lower Mississippi Valley
on Monday will migrate northward towards the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys by midweek, allowing for troughing and a "backdoor"
frontal boundary to progress southward down the southeastern
seaboard, with this boundary expected to stall over northeast or
north central FL by Tuesday before dissipating on Wednesday.
Oppressive heat and humidity will precede the arrival of this
"backdoor" front on Monday, with highs again soaring to the mid
and upper 90s, with Heat Index Values peaking in the 106-112
degree range across our area, likely prompting Heat Advisories
for Monday afternoon. Strong storms will likely erupt in this
hot and increasingly unstable air mass on Monday afternoon and
evening, with some potential for isolated severe thunderstorms
that could produce downburst winds in excess of 60 mph.
Surface high pressure building along the Mid-Atlantic coast in
the wake of this "backdoor" frontal boundary will shift low
level flow to easterly on Tuesday and Wednesday. The stalling
boundary over our area on Tuesday will keep numerous showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast, with activity potentially
beginning early in the day along the I-95 corridor and then
progressing inland towards the I-75 corridor and inland
southeast GA during the afternoon. Locally heavy downpours and a
few stronger wind gusts will be possible, especially at inland
locations. Increasing cloud cover and high rain chances will
keep temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s on Tuesday and
Wednesday , providing a nice break from the oppressive heat and
humidity that is forecast on Sunday and Monday. A drier air mass
may then briefly advect into our area towards midweek, with
prevailing low level easterly flow concentrating convection
across inland north central FL and southern portions of the
Suwannee Valley. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms may continue into Thursday and next Friday as a
drier air mass potentially lingers, but temperatures may be
trending higher towards the Independence Day weekend as the
"Heat Wave" ridge positioned over the Ohio Valley around midweek
potentially expands east and southeastward.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Showers and storms affecting forecast sites will build through
the afternoon and into this evening with convection expected
to disperse and move offshore by around 02z-04z. Southwesterly
winds will become more mild and variable overnight and then pick
back up from out of the southwest nearer to the end of the
forecast period by around 13z- 16z. IFR conditions expected with
thunderstorms with conditions becoming predominantly VFR for
the remainder of the period shortly after storms have ended.
&&
.MARINE...
Atlantic high pressure will extend westward across the Florida
Peninsula just south of the area waters today through the
weekend. A pattern of overnight to early morning light westerly
offshore winds and afternoon southeasterly winds expected due to
sea breeze circulations. Afternoon and early evening isolated
to scattered storms will develop across the nearshore waters
each day into Sunday. A weak back door frontal boundary will
approach the waters on Monday, supporting increased coverage for
showers and thunderstorms for the first part of early next
week.
Rip Currents:
A lower end moderate risk will develop during the late afternoon
hours today into this weekend at area beaches as onshore winds
become breezy following the passage of the sea breeze. A
developing southeasterly ocean swell will combine with onshore
winds developing during the mid to late afternoon hours this
weekend to maintain a lower end moderate risk at all area
beaches.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will shift east-
northeastward across our area this afternoon and evening, with
strong to isolated severe storms possible along the U.S. Highway
301 and Interstate 95 corridors. Coverage of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms will diminish somewhat this
weekend, with activity tending to cluster at locations along and
east of U.S. Highway 301. Thunderstorm coverage will then
increase on Monday afternoon and evening area-wide, with strong
storms possible. Otherwise, southwesterly transport winds this
afternoon and tonight will shift to westerly this weekend and
then west- northwesterly on Monday. The Atlantic and Gulf sea
breezes will develop and progress inland each afternoon,
resulting in surface winds becoming southeasterly for locations
along and east of I-95 during the early to mid afternoon hours
each day. Elevated mixing heights will generally yield fair to
good daytime dispersion values at inland locations, with fair
values expected at coastal locations.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
the through the weekend. Stronger thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening and again on Monday afternoon and evening will be
capable of producing wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent cloud to
ground lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding continues along the Satilla River Basin, with
water levels forecast to fall below flood stage at the gauge
near Waycross by early Saturday morning. Minor flooding will
continue downstream near the gauge at Atkinson during the next
several days, with a forecast crest late this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 93 75 95 / 30 20 10 10
SSI 78 92 79 95 / 20 20 10 20
JAX 75 96 76 97 / 20 30 20 40
SGJ 76 94 76 95 / 20 30 20 20
GNV 73 95 74 96 / 20 40 20 20
OCF 74 94 74 95 / 10 40 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 26, 2:30 PM EST, 1 hour 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
330 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
FLZ038-138-333-533-262000-
Coastal Flagler FL-Southeast Coastal St. Johns FL-Inland Flagler FL-
Southern Inland St. Johns FL-
330 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN FLAGLER AND
SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...
At 330 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Marineland, or 9 miles northwest of Palm Coast, moving
northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Palm Coast, Marineland, Crescent Beach, Beverly Beach, and Espanola.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2952 8113 2949 8140 2964 8145 2965 8145
2978 8123
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 227DEG 7KT 2963 8132
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ABSpecial weather statement, Jun 26, 2:36 PM EST, 1 hour 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
336 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
FLZ233-333-433-533-262000-
Northern Inland St. Johns FL-Southeast Coastal St. Johns FL-
Northeast Coastal St. Johns FL-Southern Inland St. Johns FL-
336 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM EDT...
At 336 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near South Ponte Vedra to 6 miles southwest of
Saint Augustine Shores. Movement was northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Saint Augustine, Saint Augustine Beach, Saint Augustine Shores,
Butler Beach, Vilano Beach, Saint Augustine South, Anastasia, and
Dupont Center.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2978 8122 2966 8142 2997 8140 3002 8129
2997 8128 2983 8122
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 215DEG 12KT 2998 8134 2973 8137
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ABSpecial weather statement, Jun 26, 2:42 PM EST, 1 hour 3 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
342 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
FLZ024-124-GAZ165-166-262030-
Inland Nassau FL-Coastal Nassau FL-Inland Camden GA-
Coastal Camden GA-
342 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN NASSAU AND CAMDEN
COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...
At 342 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Kings Ferry to near
Fernandina Beach. Movement was northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
St. Marys, Kingsland, Woodbine, Kings Bay Base, Yulee, Kings Ferry,
Dungeness, Tarboro, Cumberland Island, and Harrietts Bluff.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3079 8142 3073 8142 3061 8156 3082 8196
3083 8194 3082 8194 3081 8191 3082 8191
3090 8190 3092 8192 3096 8189 3098 8192
3100 8191 3104 8191 3105 8194 3109 8192
3110 8191 3086 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 213DEG 14KT 3085 8186 3071 8151
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ABSpecial weather statement, Jun 26, 3:05 PM EST, 40 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
405 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
FLZ038-138-333-533-262030-
Coastal Flagler FL-Southeast Coastal St. Johns FL-Inland Flagler FL-
Southern Inland St. Johns FL-
405 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL FLAGLER AND
SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...
At 405 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Marineland, or 9 miles northwest of Palm Coast, moving
north at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Flagler and southeastern St. Johns Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2958 8136 2968 8137 2969 8122 2959 8124
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 190DEG 8KT 2964 8133
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ABSpecial weather statement, Jun 26, 3:26 PM EST, 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
426 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
GAZ154-165-166-262100-
Inland Camden GA-Coastal Glynn GA-Coastal Camden GA-
426 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CAMDEN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GLYNN COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...
At 426 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Woodbine, moving north at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Waverly, Jekyll Island, and Dover Bluff.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3106 8137 3089 8149 3104 8180 3114 8172
3112 8169 3113 8166 3111 8163 3112 8162
3111 8161 3112 8160 3114 8159 3110 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 188DEG 6KT 3102 8159
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ABSpecial weather statement, Jun 26, 3:32 PM EST, 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
432 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
GAZ153-154-165-166-262100-
Inland Glynn GA-Inland Camden GA-Coastal Glynn GA-Coastal Camden GA-
432 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CAMDEN AND CENTRAL
GLYNN COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...
At 432 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Country Club Estates, or near Dock Junction, moving north at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Brunswick, St. Simons Island, Dock Junction, St Simons Island
Village, Country Club Estates, Sea Island, and Boys Estate.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3109 8137 3111 8167 3134 8149 3133 8147
3134 8147 3133 8145 3133 8144 3131 8144
3128 8139 3130 8137 3130 8134 3128 8132
3128 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 188DEG 5KT 3125 8143
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
AB