Drought in Florida, June 1 to 30, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
733 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 731 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

- Localized pockets of heavy rain will continue this evening and
  gradually diminish overnight.

- Rain chances become more confined to the seabreeze zone into mid week
  with hot temperatures expected. A drier and temporary cooler
  pattern follows.

- A HIGH risk of rip currents is in place at the Walton, Bay, and
  Gulf County beaches. Beachgoers are urged to heed the beach
  flags and reminded that waters are closed to the public if
  double red flags are flying.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(This Evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

An active day already unfolding, with the main cause for concern
being high rainfall rates leading to possible flooding concerns as
PWAT values come in at around 2.1 inches today. The majority of
activity will generally be north of I-10 or possibly the Florida
border as a backdoor front begins encroaching on the CWA from the
NE. Some gusty winds and stronger storms will be possible with deep
layer shear helping any storms that can get a bit more organized
strengthen further. Storm coverage is expected to stay rather robust
into this evening, diminishing overnight. Highs today are expected
to range from the mid 80s to low 90s, with heat indicies in the mid
90s to near 100 degrees. The north south temperature gradient will
be fairly proportional to expected storm coverage limiting daytime
highs over SE Alabama and SW Georgia.

Going forward, tomorrow's storm coverage will me more limited to the
southern half of the CWA during the day as the front sags southward.
A MCS driven boundary my push through late Monday night into Tuesday
from the NW, possibly providing the bump needed to enhance Tuesday's
activity. A number of timing factors and front position will dictate
the overall coverage though. Temperatures slightly cooler and dryer
starting Wednesday post frontal, along with a noticeable drop in RH
values, keeping apparent temps in the low to mid 80s, staying in the
low 90s along the immediate coastline. Temperatures gradually
increasing thereafter as a ridge high pressure builds over the SE.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Scattered convection will gradually diminish this evening. MVFR to
IFR ceilings are expected to develop later tonight for DHN, ABY, and
VLD with a gradual return to VFR at those locations by late Monday
morning or early Monday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Gentle to moderate west to southwest breezes prevail through
early next week with a daily onshore seabreeze. Occasional fresh
onshore breezes usher cautionary conditions across the nearshore
legs Tuesday afternoon. Additional boating concerns are
thunderstorms mainly during the morning hours. By early Wednesday,
a backdoor front slipping south of the waters causes winds to
freshen out of the northeast with possible advisory level
easterlies into Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

A very moist airmass and high rain chances should keep fire
concerns minimal through the early work week. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will pose a frequent lightning, and
gusty/erratic wind threat. Widespread wetting to soaking rains
are likely today, especially over SW GA. Winds will be somewhat
variable thanks to presence of a backdoor front and flourishing
convection. High dispersions are forecast Monday afternoon.
Convection becomes more confined to the seabreeze zone
Monday-Wednesday, so conditions are forecast to be hot. Notably
drier conditions arrive late this week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Today will be the most convectively active day of the forecast
period with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected. Widespread rainfall amounts range from about a half inch
to 1.5 inches (isolated higher). However, local CAMs suggest a
12-hr worst case scenario of 3-4+ inches this afternoon and about
2-5+ inches during the evening mainly north of the FL state line
(isolated 6-8 inches appears possible). The probability of 3
inches range from about 25-50% - highest around the I-75 corridor
and Wiregrass Region. The 0Z HREF paints high probabilities for >3
inches in SE AL, SW GA, and parts of the Eastern FL Big Bend with
lower-end probs of exceeding 5 inches! This information suggests
a fairly high ceiling for heavy rain. Current flash flood guidance
shows that about 2-2.5 inches in 1 hr and 3-4 inches in 3 hrs
would be needed to produce flash flooding.

Recent rainfall has increased soil moisture, but long term
drought conditions remain. As of May 28th however, the latest
monitor shows improvement along/west of the Flint River basin
where D2 severe drought is now in place from roughly from Albany,
GA to just west of KECP in Bay County, FL. Extreme to exceptional
drought remains in place to the east. Additional near-term
improvement is likely if the amounts described above are realized.

In terms of rivers, the Choctawhatchee Caryville has crested and
should fall below action stage later this morning while Bruce has
now reached actions stage.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the
following websites:
weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  91  73  91 /  50  40  10  60
Panama City   76  89  76  89 /  20  30  10  40
Dothan        71  90  71  88 /  70  20  20  40
Albany        70  88  71  87 /  70  10  20  50
Valdosta      70  89  71  89 /  80  30  20  60
Cross City    75  91  75  93 /  40  50  20  60
Apalachicola  78  88  78  88 /  10  30  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ108-112-
     114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Humphreys
LONG TERM....Humphreys
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Humphreys

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
739 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Forrester               31.65N 84.17W
05/31/2026                   Lee                GA   911 Call Center

            Tree down along Branchview Street.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
929 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

ALZ068-069-FLZ011-010315-
Geneva AL-Houston AL-Jackson FL-
929 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN GENEVA...
SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1015
PM CDT...

At 929 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Taylor, or near Cottonwood, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cottonwood, Graceville, Dothan, Taylor, Ashford, Cowarts, Webb,
Malone, Malvern, Rehobeth, Avon, Madrid, Campbellton, Bascom,
Memphis, Grangeburg, Garretts Crossroads, Enon, Wilson Mill, and
Southern Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3112 8556 3124 8528 3109 8513 3097 8506
      3084 8524 3084 8546 3099 8551 3099 8550
      3100 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 331DEG 23KT 3111 8540

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

99-OLIVER