Strong northerly post-frontal winds in the wake of a strong cold front advecting a record cold air mass into the region damage a mobile home near Nobleton in Sumter County.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.
Strong northerly post-frontal winds in the wake of a strong cold front advecting a record cold air mass into the region damage a mobile home near Nobleton in Sumter County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 12:33 PM EST, 3 hours 25 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1233 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An Extreme Cold Warning and a Freeze Warning are in effect for
much of west central and southwest Florida tonight through
Sunday morning.
- A Gale Warning is in effect for all coastal waters through
Sunday morning.
- A Wind Advisory is in effect today and tonight for the entire area.
- Extremely dangerous marine conditions and a high risk of strong rip
currents and hazardous surf at area beaches will develop today
and tonight.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
NW winds are increasing around 20-25 knots with gusts of 30-35
knots possible, posing crosswind issues depending on runway
configurations. MVFR stratocu from the E Gulf to continue to move
over coastal terminals this afternoon into tonight. VFR conditions
returning areawide Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026
As has been discussed over the past several days, all of the
ingredients are coming together for a significant cold weather
event across west central and southwest Florida for the next
several days. A large band of cirrus cloudiness is streaming
across the Gulf and Florida peninsula associated with an enhancing
sub-tropical jet of 140-150 kts...while a strong polar jet is
diving south out of central Canada through the Plains and
Mississippi Valley which is associated with a strong digging U/L
trough over the Tennessee Valley. This is currently inducing
cyclogenesis along a baroclinic zone over southern Georgia, with a
trailing cold front across the Florida panhandle and eastern Gulf.
This area of low pressure will move off the mid Atlantic coast
today, and given the extremely strong U/L dynamics and strong
baroclinicity, bombogenesis will occur today and tonight off the
Carolina coast with the area of low pressure rapidly deepening as
it initially moves slowly northeast. The combination of strong
Canadian high pressure over the southern Plains/Lower Mississippi
Valley associated with an arctic airmass, and the deepening area
of low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will create a very
tight pressure gradient over the eastern Gulf and Florida
peninsula today and tonight. The strong flow down the backside of
this storm system will also quickly advance the aforementioned
cold front across west central and southwest Florida this
morning/early afternoon with strong CAA advection developing as
Canadian high pressure and the leading portion of the arctic
airmass builds over the region. The area of high pressure will
hold over the forecast area through the early part of the week.
As far as the sensible weather goes across the forecast area, there
will be a chance of showers today ahead of and associated with the
cold front as it moves across the region. Timing for the leading
edge of the arctic air today will be between 10 AM-Noon across the
nature coast...noon to 2 PM in the Tampa Bay area...and 3 to 5 PM
across southwest Florida. Temperatures are expected to drop (or at
best hold steady) once the boundary clears a given area. Very strong
northwest winds will develop across the region behind the cold front
with a Gale Warning in effect for the coastal waters and a wind
advisory for all of west central and southwest Florida.
A few wind gusts to storm force will be possible over the coastal
waters...and wind gusts over land of 35 to 50 MPH, with the
highest gusts likely near and along the coast.
The very tricky part of the forecast is this evening and overnight.
As has been mentioned in previous discussions, the strong winds and
CAA over the coastal waters will create a very unstable turbulent
boundary layer. Residual low level moisture will likely allow an
area of cold air strato-cu to develop over the eastern Gulf today
and Saturday night. With these extreme conditions in place, it would
be expected to see a few light showers or sprinkles to develop over
the coastal waters...Gulf effect type light showers. Combined with
this, the 70H/50H trough axes will be moving across the region
around this evening which will enhance lift and act to squeeze out
any available moisture. This could potentially generate a few
showers over land even without the aid of the Gulf effect scenario.
The backside or northern extent of the cloud shield will see
temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s Saturday evening and
after midnight...which could allow the light rain showers to become
light mixed snow/rain showers or snow showers/flurries. Trajectories
would indicate that the clouds should advect locally onshore from
Pinellas county north, but will be more parallel to the coast south
of Pinellas county keeping precip in that area primarily offshore.
Also, the air just above the surface will be extremely cold, with
only a shallow layer above freezing near the surface. This will
create less time for any snow to melt before reaching the ground,
hence why we would likely see mixed rain/snow or snow with temps in
the mid to upper 30s. As an example, the 925 MB temp from the Tampa
area and north is forecast to be around -4C to -6C...the 85H temp -8
to -11C...and the 50H temp -15C to -20C. To compare how extremely
cold this airmass is for our area, the record coldest 85H temp from
a TBW sounding on Feb 1 is +3.4C...and records go back to 1948. The
3 coldest 85H temps recorded at TBW are -10.5C on Dec 4, 1999...
-7.4C on Jan 14, 1964...and -6.9C on December 24 1989.
This is all to say that the airmass will be capable for the rain
to change to a mix of light snow/rain or light snow mainly north
of Tampa this evening and overnight if there is enough moisture
remaining for shower activity to occur. Guidance provides
conflicting solutions. NBM shuts down the chance for precipitation
faster this run than previous runs. But given the overall
dynamics in place, this appears a bit abrupt. Have maintained a
very low pop from the Tampa Bay area north this evening until
around midnight. But overall, this portion of the forecast is a
low confidence forecast.
As has been mentioned for numerous cycles now, there will be a
number of hazards associated with this sequence of events that
run from a low probability of occurrence to a very high
probability of occurrence. Starting with the highest likelihood
of occurrence:
- Extremely hazardous marine conditions will develop today and
tonight with a Gale Warning in effect for Saturday through
Sunday morning. A few gusts to storm force will be possible.
- A wind advisory is in effect for west central and southwest
Florida today for wind gusts of 35 to 45 MPH, with the highest
gusts near and along the coast.
- A very rare Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for all west
central and southwest Florida Saturday night with the exception
of Pinellas, coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Sarasota,
Coastal Charlotte, and Lee counties. The criteria for an Extreme
Cold Warning is for the potential of wind chill values of 10
degrees or less for Levy, Citrus, Sumter, and Hernando
counties...and wind chill values of 20 degrees or less for
Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Manatee, Sarasota, Manatee,
Hardee, DeSoto, Highlands, Charlotte, and Lee counties. A
Freeze Watch is also in effect for much of the region Saturday
night into Sunday morning and Freeze Warnings will likely be
needed for much of the forecast area both Saturday night and
Sunday night. A hard freeze will be possible across the nature
coast Saturday night and Sunday night with lows in the lower to
mid 20s each night. Temperatures across the interior are
expected to be in the mid to upper 20s both nights...with lower
to mid 30s near the coast and across southwest Florida. Gusty
northwest winds will create wind chills Saturday night in the
upper single digits to teens across the nature coast. Wind
chills are expected to be in the 10 to 20 degree range across
the interior, and generally in the 20s elsewhere. The wind is
expected to taper off Sunday night, with wind chills generally
about 3 to 5 degrees below the ambient temperature.
- Temperatures will be running about 20 to 25 degrees below
climatic normals Saturday night through Sunday night. Could see
some record low temperatures set Saturday night/Sunday morning
across the region...some low max temperature records set on
Sunday...and some record low temperatures again Sunday
night/Monday morning.
- Along area beaches, very strong rip currents and high surf are
expected to develop today and persist through Sunday.
- The strong northwest winds may also create water levels along
the coast from Citrus to northern Pinellas county to run 1 to 2
feet above astronomical normal tide levels today and Saturday
night. This is in the low to moderate probability of occurrence.
Skies will clear on Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday
will struggle to climb into the mid to upper 40s across northern and
central areas...around 50 to the lower 50s south. Another frigid
night Sunday night as mentioned above with most areas away from the
coast or extreme southwest Florida in the 20s. Again, record cold
temperatures will be possible both Sunday and Sunday night. A Cold
Weather Advisory will be needed for Sunday night, but have
coordinated with other offices and we do not want to add confusion
to the forecast by having both a warning and a watch in effect for
multiple nights.
The airmass will begin to modify a bit on Monday, but it will still
be another cold day across the region with high temperatures from
the mid 50s north to around 60 south. Subfreezing temperatures again
likely Monday night/Tuesday morning across the nature coast, and
around freezing across the interior...with upper 30s to lower 40s
near the coast. Areas of frost will likely develop late Monday night
through the early morning hours away from the coast.
The area of high pressure will begin to shift east of the forecast
area during the middle of next week with temperatures continuing to
modify...but remaining below climatic normals under mostly clear
skies each day. A cold front will push across the forecast area late
Wednesday and Wednesday night which will bring the next chance of
showers to the area.
&&
.MARINE...
As mentioned above, a cold front will push across the waters
today with winds rapidly increasing to Gale Force as strong
Canadian high pressure builds over the waters in the wake of the
front. A gale warning is in effect this morning through Sunday
morning. A few gusts to storm force will be possible. Very
dangerous boating conditions will develop as seas will build as
high as 15 to 20 feet. A high risk of rip currents and high surf
will develop along area beaches today and will persist through
Sunday. Winds will come down a bit on Sunday, but advisory level
winds and seas are expected to persist. Winds will subside Sunday
night, but it will likely take a longer period of time for the
seas to subside.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026
Sufficient low level moisture will will hold over the region
today to keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values to remain
above critical levels. Much drier air will advect across the
region Saturday night and Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 32 48 34 56 / 20 10 0 0
FMY 34 54 33 61 / 20 10 0 0
GIF 25 48 29 57 / 10 10 0 0
SRQ 36 50 34 57 / 20 10 0 0
BKV 21 47 23 55 / 10 10 0 0
SPG 38 50 41 57 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal Charlotte-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.
Extreme Cold Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday
for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal
Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland
Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-
Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.
Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland
Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-
Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland
Sarasota-Polk-Sumter.
High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal
Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal Charlotte-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
Sarasota-Pinellas.
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Sunday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal
Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Inland Lee-Inland
Sarasota-Pinellas.
Gulf waters...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for Charlotte Harbor and
Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to
Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
60 NM.
&&
AVIATION...Davis
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PearceThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Sumter County EM reported a carport collapse at a mobile home due to gusty winds. No injuries were reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, January 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1315414.