Hail in Florida, January 3, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1228 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1228 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

  - Strong winds will create hazardous marine conditions for small
    craft this evening into Saturday.

  - Life threatening rip currents are likely at area beaches
    through tonight.

  - There is a Marginal risk for an isolated severe storm along
    and east of the I-65 corridor through the afternoon.
    Localized damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary
    threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are developing across portions of the
area, ahead of a cold front that will move through the area this
afternoon and evening. This activity, aided in a shortwave
traversing the region, is expected to increase in coverage as we
head into the afternoon, though the intensity of these storms is
still slightly uncertain. We've been advertising the potential for
isolated and marginal severe thunderstorms today, and not to much
has changed from previous thinking. Current observations show temps
in the lower to mid 70s across much of the area, which is right
around our forecast convective temp. Along with these warmer temps,
instability has increased, with roughly 1000 to 1500 j/kg
spreading as far north as the US84 corridor. Meanwhile, wind shear
will be modest, with 0-6 km bulk shear around 45 kts. Winds are
from the west through the vertical column, so directional shear is
pretty nonexistent. One question remains how much and for how
long will the better shear overlap with the instability, with the
front coming through during the day. That said, there will likely
be enough of an overlap of instability and shear over the next few
hours to keep storms organized ahead of the front. The stronger
storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large
hail.

The aforementioned cold front will push east of the area by this
evening, with showers/storms coming to an end by sunset.
Northwesterly flow will return as the shortwave pushes east and
ridging building to build. Strong CAA will sent overnight lows into
the 40s across most of the area, the exception being right along the
coast, and highs on Sunday will generally remain in the 60s. This
return to cooler weather will be short lived, as upper ridging begins
to move into the region and surface flow becomes southerly. A chilly
start to Monday, with lows in the 40s once again, temps will warm
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This warming trend will continue
through the remainder of the week, with highs in the mid to upper
70s through Thursday. The next round of rain will begin to approach
the area on Friday, as another cold front moves into the region.
More info on that system as we get closer. /73

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will impact the terminals at times
through the afternoon hours, as a cold front moves through the
area. Given uncertainty regarding the duration of storms and
potential breaks in activity, have included a TEMPO group for all
terminals to account for TSRA. MVFR cigs will prevail through
much of the period. The front will push east of the terminals by
sunset, with a brief return to VFR conditions this evening. MVFR
cigs will return by midnight and prevail through mid morning on
Sunday. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Southwesterly winds will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold
front. The front will move through the coastal waters late this
afternoon into tonight with a moderate offshore flow developing
in the wake of the front. The offshore flow diminishes on Sunday
and transitions to a light onshore flow early next week as high
pressure quickly moves east of the region. /73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      49  67  48  70 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   52  66  51  67 /  10   0   0   0
Destin      52  65  51  65 /  20   0   0   0
Evergreen   46  67  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  43  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      43  63  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   48  68  43  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1239 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 PM     Hail             1 SE Crossroads         30.82N 87.84W
01/03/2026  E1.00 Inch       Baldwin            AL   Broadcast Media

            Quarter sized hail near Crossroads.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
110 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     Hail             Whitehouse Forks        30.81N 87.82W
01/03/2026  E1.75 Inch       Baldwin            AL   Emergency Mngr

&&