Heavy Snow in Florida, January 25, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
217 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 141 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

- There is Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather this
  afternoon and evening for most of the area. Damaging wind gusts
  and a couple tornadoes are the main threats. Have multiple ways
  to receive warnings today.

- Gusty non-thunderstorm winds of 30-45 mph are expected this
  afternoon. Secure loose objects, and use caution if driving high
  profile vehicles.

- Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills are expected much of
  the week. Lows will be in the teens and 20s for most of the week
  beginning Monday night. Wind chills in the teens and 20s will be
  common. Protect the 4 Ps during this prolonged, dangerous cold
  event.

- Hazardous marine conditions will develop on Sunday. Small Craft
  Advisories begin this morning and continue into early next week.
  There is a medium chance (30-50%) of gale force gusts Monday
  afternoon and Monday night. Small craft operators should alter
  plans to avoid hazardous conditions.

- There is a high risk of rip currents along all area beaches
  through at least Monday. Please stay out of the surf and heed
  any posted beach flags.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 141 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

A strong cold front will move through the area this afternoon into
tonight. A broken band of strong to potentially severe storms will
develop along the front and move into southeast Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle this afternoon. These storms will continue
eastward through the evening hours, gradually weakening late in
the evening as it approaches the I-75 corridor and Suwannee
Valley. The ingredients are generally favorable for severe storms.
A strong LLJ of 40-55 kt will support storms, with bulk shear
around 50 kt. Ahead of the storms, hodographs are large and
curved, supporting rotating storms if they can develop ahead of
the line. Additionally, some embedded QLCS tornadoes cannot be
ruled out within the line itself. The biggest question remains
instability as there will be abundant cloud cover for much of the
day, which may inhibit some daytime heating potential. This is
especially true farther to the east and northeast in our area
where the wedge still remains in place and flow off Apalachee Bay
in the afternoon may locally reduce instability in the Big Bend.
Regardless, there is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms
for most of the forecast area today with the primary hazards being
damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes. Behind the line of
storms, some light showers will be possible for a few hours after
the storms end.

Outside of storms, the strong LLJ mentioned above will yield some
windy conditions, especially if we get breaks in the clouds. Wind
gusts of 30-45 mph will be common, and a Wind Advisory is in
effect this afternoon from Panama City to Tifton northwestward.
This is where the highest chances of gusts of 40 mph or greater
exist.

A sharp turn in weather is expected tonight behind the front.
Temperatures drop rather quickly as strong cold air advection
takes hold. Lows will range from the upper 20s in our Alabama
counties to the lower 50s in the southeast Big Bend. Wind chills
along and west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers will be in the
upper teens to low 20s during the morning commute Monday morning.
A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for much of the Florida
Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and southeast Alabama for early
Monday morning to highlight the potentially hazardous wind chills.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 141 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Cold arctic high pressure settles over the eastern US, keeping
temperatures well below normal all this week. Highs each day
through Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s. Winds will still be
elevated Monday and Monday night, making for potentially dangerous
wind chills Monday night. During the day Monday, it will likely
feel like the mid 30s to low 40s for much of the day across the
area except the southeast Big Bend. Monday night's wind chills
will be the coldest of this event with wind chills between 9 and
18 across the area. Extreme Cold Watches have been issued from
Albany to Tallahassee westward for Monday night and Tuesday
morning. Everyone, including coastal locations, has a high chance
of a hard freeze (temperatures 25F or lower) both Monday night and
Tuesday night. A Freeze Watch for the potential of a hard freeze
has been issued for the entire area for Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Chances of a hard freeze remain medium through the end
of the week for inland areas.

Everyone should protect the 4 Ps this week: People, Pets, Plants,
Pipes. Given this is a prolonged cold event, there may be extra
stress on those that do not have access to heat and also on
exposed plumbing.

Another cold front passes through the area Thursday, which just
knocks our temperatures back down again heading into the weekend.
The late week forecast regarding any systems nearby or precip
chances is highly uncertain with little to no run-to-run
consistency. The part of the forecast we have the most confidence
in is that temperatures will still be below normal by late
January/early February standards.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

IFR to MVFR cigs continue across the area. Cigs will drop near
daybreak to LIFR in spots with some patchy fog developing. Ahead
of storms, cigs will rise back to MVFR. Winds become very gusty
out of the south to southwest late this morning into the afternoon
with frequent gusts outside of storms of 25-35 kt. TSRA will pass
through the terminals this afternoon and evening with strong
gusty winds. SHRA will likely continue a few hours after TSRA
ends. Winds shift out of the west to northwest after 00z as a cold
front moves through behind TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Winds become more southerly to southwesterly and strengthen on
Sunday as the stationary front lifts northward ahead of an
approaching cold front. There is a high chance of showers and
storms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe with
strong winds and waterspouts. Winds become northwesterly in the
wake of the front Sunday night into Monday with a medium chance
of gale force gusts. Strong northerly breezes continue through
Monday night, subsiding by Tuesday. Winds freshen again late in
the week as another cold front moves south through the marine
area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Transport winds increase substantially out of the south to southwest
today to 25-35 mph. Showers and thunderstorms become increasingly
likely during the afternoon ahead of a cold front, and some storms
could be strong to severe with strong winds and a tornado or two.
Outside of storms, dispersions will be good to high, highest over
the Florida Panhandle. The cold front clears the area by Monday
morning with colder, drier air in its wake. Transport winds become
northwesterly at 20-30 mph Monday with good to high dispersions,
particularly over the Florida Big Bend. Fair dispersions are
expected Tuesday as winds lighten. However, RH values will be
critically low Tuesday afternoon for much of the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 141 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Rainfall totals will range from an inch across the Wiregrass to
under a quarter inch in the southeast Big Bend. Localized
reasonable high-end totals (90th percentile) may reach 2 inches up
in southeast Alabama. While welcomed rain, this won't be enough to
cause flooding concerns or provide much drought relief.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  38  49  24 /  60  80   0   0
Panama City   73  34  48  25 /  70  80   0   0
Dothan        75  29  43  20 /  90  70   0   0
Albany        73  33  46  20 /  80  80   0   0
Valdosta      75  41  50  22 /  30  80  10   0
Cross City    76  53  59  25 /  10  70  10   0
Apalachicola  70  40  50  26 /  40  70   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from noon EST /11 AM CST/ today to 6 PM EST /5 PM
     CST/ this evening for FLZ007>013-016-108-112-326.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for
     FLZ007>013-108-112.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     for FLZ007>017-027-108-112-114-115-127-326-426.

     Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
     426.

     High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning
     through late Monday night for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for
     GAZ120>129-142>146-155>157.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for
     GAZ120>124-142-143-155.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     for GAZ120>126-142>145-155>157.

     Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon
     for ALZ065>069.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for
     ALZ065>069.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     for ALZ065>069.

     Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM CST Monday
     for GMZ735.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to noon CST Tuesday
     for GMZ751-752-770-772.

&&

SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young