Damaging Wind in Connecticut, April 15, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
702 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Quick update late this afternoon to raise temperatures in most
areas from around Albany south. Also lowered PoPs across the
entire area through sunset due to lack of forcing and a well
mixed environment.
07

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. there is a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms
this evening, and a better chance tomorrow with a slight risk
(level 2/5) for areas north of I-90. Damaging wind gusts are the
primary hazard from any severe storm both days.

2. Tranquil weather expected Friday into early next week.
Temperatures trend below normal Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As of 2:30 PM EDT: Earlier this morning, a decaying MCS tracked
through the region, which helped to reinforce the thermal
gradient along a sfc frontal boundary that was draped near the
I-90 corridor. This boundary has become more diffuse and drifted
back north over the last hour or two, but there is still large
temperature contrast across the region with 60s across northern
areas to low 80s near the I-84 corridor. Confidence is low
whether or not any convection will develop this
afternoon/evening. If it does, this boundary will likely be the
focus for CI. However, low- level convergence along this
boundary isn't overly strong, and there is not much in the way
of upper-level support with weak height rises aloft. Current
satellite imagery shows some modest vertical growth to the cu
field to our west over central NY, but not to the extent that we
would like to see to give us confidence in convection
developing. That said, if any convection does develop, the
environment south of I-90 is generally favorable with 1000-1500
J/kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. If any storms
develop they could therefore become strong to severe (primary
hazard gusty winds), but will emphasize that this threat is
conditional upon convection actually developing. Even if storms
develop, expecting coverage to remain isolated at best this
afternoon into early evening.

However, upper forcing increases tonight as a shortwave aloft
tracks along the stalled frontal boundary. Moisture will
increase as well. A decaying MCS associated with the upper
shortwave is expected to track from west to east across our
region, bringing better chances for rain and thunderstorms.
Showalter values drop as low as -2 to -4, but model forecast
soundings suggest that the instability should remain elevated.
Therefore, we are not expecting any additional severe weather
with the showers and storms overnight tonight.

Tomorrow, a sfc low out ahead of a fairly potent upper
shortwave trough tracks from the Great Lakes across the North
Country. This will lift the stalled frontal boundary back north
as a warm front, putting our entire region in the warm sector.
Temperatures will climb well into the 70s and 80s, with the
warmest temperatures in the Mid Hudson Valley. As the sfc low
tracks eastwards across upstate NY tomorrow, a pre-frontal
trough will track across the region during the afternoon. Then,
the sfc low will drag a cold front through the region tomorrow
evening, which will coincide with strengthening upper
forcing/height falls aloft as the aforementioned strong
shortwave approaching from the west. Strengthening flow aloft
ahead of the upper shortwave will yield 40-50+ kt of deep-layer
shear. Instability also looks supportive of severe weather, with
up to 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE and some locally higher pockets.
Main question is whether the pre-frontal trough will act as the
mechanism to initiate convection, or if things will hold off
until the cold front and better upper forcing arrive in the very
late afternoon/evening.

Regardless, the parameter space looks fairly impressive,
especially for mid April, so we agree with the SPC slight risk
for severe storms across northern portions of our region. Any
cells that develop with the pre-frontal trough could initially
be discrete, but straight hodographs suggest splitting
cells/upscale growth, especially as we get into the evening with
better forcing arriving. Main threat will be damaging winds, as
DCAPE values look to increase to around 1000 J/kg, but the
straight hodographs and fast flow aloft will also support a
secondary hail threat. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out,
but there is not a lot of low-level directional shear and LCLs
may be on the higher side given potential for deep BL mixing
before any storms develop. Best chance for severe convection
will be near and north of I-90, but there is a marginal risk for
most of the rest of our region. Main threat would be wind as
storms track into an area with a deeply-mixed BL, but
instability should be waning by this time with the still
relatively early sunsets. Timing for severe weather looks to be
late afternoon through the evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Showers and thunderstorms come to and end Thursday night as the
cold front tracks off to the south and east of our region.
Cooler and drier air filters into the region Friday, with mainly
dry conditions across the region. Tranquil weather expected
Friday and Saturday as ridging amplifies aloft and high pressure
at the surface builds down from the north. A deepening sfc low
tracking through the Great Lakes Saturday will lift a warm front
northward through the region and bring scattered showers and
perhaps a couple rumbles of thunder Saturday night, but given
overnight timing of the frontal passage severe weather is not
expected. Behind this cold front, breezy but dry weather is
expected Sunday/Monday. Much cooler weather is also expected
behind this front with highs only in the 40s to 50s Sunday and
30s to 40s Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z/Friday, mainly VFR conditions expected through
early this evening. Showers/thunderstorms currently entering
western and central NYS should track eastward across the region
between 02Z-06Z/Thu, bringing areas of MVFR/IFR conditions. In
the wake of these showers/storms, a period of MVFR/IFR
conditions (mainly Cigs) will be possible, with greatest chance
at KGFL. Any low clouds/fog should lift between 12Z-14Z/Thu with
VFR conditions returning. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop after 21Z/Thu at KGFL, KALB and KPSF with brief,
localized IFR/LIFR conditions possible.

Winds become light/variable this evening through early Thursday
morning, before shifting into the south to southwest and
increasing to 5-10 KT by midday Thursday, with a few gusts of
20-25 KT possible in the afternoon. Winds will be stronger, and
variable in direction in/near any thunderstorms through the
period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures(Year Set):

Today April 15:
Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003)
Poughkeepsie: 90(1941)

Thursday April 16:
Albany: 91(2012)
Glens Falls: 89(2002)
Poughkeepsie: 91(2012)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...24/23
CLIMATE...07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
942 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

NYZ058-063-160230-
Western Ulster NY-Western Greene NY-
942 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ULSTER AND
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM EDT...

At 942 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Margaretville, or 14 miles southeast of Delhi, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hunter, Windham, Prattsville, Woodland Valley Campground, West
Shokan, Kenneth L Wilson Campground, Phoenicia, Mount Tremper,
Lanesville, Shandaken, Ashland, Jewett, Lexington, West Settlement,
North Lexington, Maplecrest, Oliverea, Belle Ayr, Seager, and Pine
Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4212 7456 4215 7453 4214 7450 4217 7445
      4220 7454 4233 7445 4234 7416 4197 7419
      4196 7464 4202 7478
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 277DEG 25KT 4216 7468

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1002 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

NYZ063-160245-
Western Ulster NY-
1002 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ULSTER COUNTY THROUGH
1045 PM EDT...

At 1002 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Willowemoc, or 14 miles north of Liberty, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
West Shokan, Olivebridge, Denning, Samsonville, Palentown, Sundown,
Brodhead, Liebhardt, Branch, Hardenburg, Turnwood, Frost Valley,
Peekamoose, Lyonsville, Winchell, Bull Run, Potterville, Krumville,
Ladleton, and Shokan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4207 7467 4198 7420 4183 7421 4182 7450
      4187 7445 4188 7446 4202 7478
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 276DEG 36KT 4201 7470

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JPV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1041 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

CTZ001-NYZ066-160315-
Northern Litchfield CT-Eastern Dutchess NY-
1041 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LITCHFIELD AND EAST
CENTRAL DUTCHESS COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM EDT...

At 1041 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Amenia, or 19 miles north of Sherman, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Amenia, Sharon, Falls Village, Cornwall Bridge, Goshen, Cornwall,
Smithfield, Corner Of The Pines, Huntsville, South Canaan, Hitchcock
Corners, North Corners, West Goshen, Ellsworth, South Amenia, Tyler
Lake Heights, Pearson Corners, Yelping Hill, Emmons Corners, and
South Ellsworth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4178 7358 4189 7362 4202 7328 4179 7319
TIME...MOT...LOC 0241Z 255DEG 29KT 4186 7354

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1043 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

CTZ001-MAZ025-NYZ059>061-064>066-160330-
Northern Litchfield CT-Southern Berkshire MA-Eastern Dutchess NY-
Eastern Columbia NY-Eastern Greene NY-Western Columbia NY-
Western Dutchess NY-Eastern Ulster NY-
1043 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LITCHFIELD...
SOUTHWESTERN BERKSHIRE...NORTHERN DUTCHESS...SOUTHERN COLUMBIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 PM EDT...

At 1043 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Catskill to near Clermont to Kingston. Movement
was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kingston, Great Barrington, Hudson, Catskill, Saugerties, Rhinebeck,
Claverack, Lee, Livingston, Copake, Sheffield, Pine Plains, Clermont,
Red Hook, Athens, Ancram, Philmont, Canaan, Millerton, and Lorenz
Park.

This includes Interstate 87 near exit 21.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4230 7323 4205 7326 4190 7349 4191 7398
      4209 7393 4228 7391
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 271DEG 42KT 4223 7386 4208 7388 4195 7402

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1045 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

NYZ063>065-160315-
Western Ulster NY-Western Dutchess NY-Eastern Ulster NY-
1045 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL ULSTER AND WEST
CENTRAL DUTCHESS COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM EDT...

At 1045 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Olivebridge, or 10 miles northwest of New Paltz, moving east at 50
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kingston, New Paltz, Hyde Park, Hurley, Highland, Fairview, West
Shokan, High Falls, Kerhonkson, Staatsburg, Tillson, Olivebridge,
Port Ewen, Lloyd, Esopus, Rosendale, Marbletown, Cherrytown, Rolling
Meadows, and Norrie Heights.

This includes Interstate 87 near exit 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4178 7442 4198 7435 4190 7381 4171 7388
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 274DEG 45KT 4185 7423

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1128 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

CTZ001-013-MAZ025-160400-
Northern Litchfield CT-Southern Litchfield CT-Southern Berkshire MA-
1128 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LITCHFIELD AND
SOUTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT...

At 1128 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lee to near Torrington. Movement was east
at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Torrington, Great Barrington, New Hartford, Sheffield, Norfolk, Otis,
Canaan, Sandisfield, Northwest Harwinton, Winsted, New Hartford
Center, Housatonic, Ashley Falls, Harwinton, Barkhamsted, Goshen, New
Marlborough, Colebrook, Monterey, and Tyringham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4190 7291 4189 7294 4181 7295 4180 7302
      4176 7301 4181 7332 4227 7337 4228 7300
      4215 7303 4215 7307 4212 7306 4211 7307
      4209 7307 4204 7306 4204 7301 4197 7303
      4197 7289
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 273DEG 48KT 4226 7321 4187 7322

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPV