Damaging Wind in Colorado, June 24, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1105 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for most of the
  area until 5 AM MT. Severe storms are possible overnight with
  hail up to 2 inches in diameter, 75 mph wind gusts, and a
  tornado or two. Flooding is also possible.

- Locations that received heavy rain during the past several
  days are more prone to experience flash flooding through the
  next 24-48 hours. Flood Watch has been expanded to account for
  this.

- Severe weather chances continue through at least Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been expanded to include all
but Graham and Norton counties. A couple of clusters have began
to organize and are pushing in from the north and west. This has
lowered the max hail size to two inches, but increased the
threat for wind gusts. A tornado is still possible, though not
likely. We also are watching for flash flooding with continued
slow storm movements.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1205 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

NW flow is forecast to continue through the day with embedded
shortwaves. These shortwaves are forecast to continue to lead to
developing showers and storms through the morning. Main focus
in the next few hours is the potential for a developing MCS and
additional flooding concerns as the northwest flow remains
parallel with the overall mean flow and continues with the
flooding threat. Efficient rain producers have already been
observed across Dundy and Hitchcock this morning with 1-2 inch
per hour rainfall rates being observed which is further
exacerbating the flooding threat from the heavy rain that was
observed over the weekend. This along with the potential for
more overnight heavy rain (which I will get into here later)
have opted to extend the Flood Watch through 15Z Wednesday.

As mentioned concern is increasing for a potential MCS currently
originating in western Nebraska and moving through favoring
locations along and east of Highway 25. Wind gusts up to 60 mph may
be possible with this MCS as it moves through along isolated
instances of severe hail with any stronger updraft. 12Z RAP data
does have a more favorable environment for severe winds to the west
of Highway 25 so if the MCS could track a little further west then
the severe threat would increase. With this MCS, flooding remains a
concern with 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates expected in the
heavier cores. Radar from storms earlier this morning estimates 1-2
inches of new rainfall across far east Dundy and norther/western
Hitchcock county so will need to closely watch this area as the MCS
moves through. 12Z data is further supporting the potential for
higher rainfall rates as well with this MCS as it moves across
already saturated portions of the CWA so have opted to expand the
Flood Watch into Red Willow, Norton, Sheridan, Graham and Gove
counties.

Now to this afternoon, evening and tonight. HREF and REFS paint
balls suggest that there is around 10% chance of a discrete
supercell developing across eastern Colorado between 22-02Z
which would be capable of all hazards. The big question for the
day is how long will the cloud cover hold across Colorado and
will the daytime showers and storms stabilize the environment.
Subtle shortwaves through the afternoon and evening look to be
main driver should any discrete cells develop. The next main
form of forcing is overnight after 06Z as 500mb shortwave moves
through the center part of the area and correlates with the nose
of a 700mb jet. Showers and storms are forecast to develop
along this nose leading to the potential for more heavy to
torrential rainfall potential. Along the 700mb jet nose CAPE is
forecast to increase further which looks to be where our severe
potential may lie. Large hail would be the main hazard along
with the potential for very large hail if we could get a
sustained supercell.

On top of the showers and storms a fairly strong signal for fog is
forecast across most of the area as well. Surface to 1km mixing
ratio differences around 3-4 g/kg which suggests that some dense fog
may be possible but at this time am not anticipating widespread
dense fog. Showers and storms overnight however may disrupt the fog,
so will maintain the patchy fog wording in the forecast from
the previous shift.

Rainfall is forecast to continue through at least mid morning
Wednesday but may last longer. Very little change in the overall
synoptic pattern is seen with a surface high in place across
the southern Plains. More robust shortwaves are forecast to move
off of the Rockies during the afternoon and into the evening.
Additional showers and storms are forecast to develop and move
to the east into the area. Initially discrete supercells may be
possible with all hazards before clustering together into
another MCS as the evening and night goes as the area becomes in
the in the left exit region of a developing 500mb jet which
will further help increase coverage of showers and storms. Large
to very large hail and damaging winds are forecast to be the
primary hazards. If a bowing segment can occur initially then
wind gusts may exceed 80 mph. A tornado or two may be possible
as well as the low level jet increases during the evening.

Flooding is forecast again to become an issue Wednesday night into
Thursday morning especially across the areas that have seen the
heaviest rainfall over the past several days. The signal is
there for the potential for several more inches of rainfall to
occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Thursday for the
county warning area (CWA). Our region is forecast to be in a mostly
zonal flow with multiple shortwaves traversing through the area.
Severe weather is possible for the CWA with Probability of
Precipitation (PoPs) of 60-90% Thursday. Instability has decreased
since yesterday's model runs, but the environment is still
supportive of a wind and hail risk with CAPE around 1000 J/kg and
around 20 knots of deep-layer shear. Model soundings show a skinny
CAPE profile. This, combined with recent substantial rainfall across
the CWA, raises flooding concerns.

Friday, we transition to more of a weak ridging pattern with an
incoming trough west of the Rocky Mountains. Expect sunny skies
and high temperatures forecast in the 80s. Saturday through the
end of the forecast period continues to warm with high
temperatures forecast in the 90s to low 100s for the CWA.
Saturday onward will also be fairly windy with afternoon gusts
around 35 mph possible for our Colorado counties.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1104 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... MVFR to IFR ceilings are forecast with ceilings
initially around 1500-2500ft forecast to lower to around 200-500ft.
Showers and storms moving through the area may hinder ceilings
dropping, and keep them above 3000ft. Fog is forecast to form
in the absence of storms with visibility likely down to 1-3SM.
The fog and low ceilings should lift or clear around 15-17Z,
allowing for VFR conditions. These conditions should persist
through the remainder of the period, though there may be
additional chances for storms after 00Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1205 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MCS moving across the area this morning has moved over locations
that has seen the heaviest rainfall from the past several days.
These have been very efficient rainfall producers with 1.5-2.5
per hour rainfall rates. A report of 3+ inches has been received
from northern Hitchcock county since midnight. The Flood Watch
was expanded earlier today to account for this round of heavy
rain along with the potential for additional heavy rain tonight.

The favored area for tonight is mainly for Sheridan, Graham and
Gove counties as the nose of a 700mb jet sets up over those
counties. High PWATS are forecast to continue as well leading to
the potential for flooding as this mornings heavy rain may have
exacerbated already saturated soils from the weekend. There is
the potential for the heavy rains to continue into at least the
mid morning hours as well.

Assuming everything can remain on par with the current
forecast, additional, perhaps even more impactful flooding may
occur Wednesday night as storms merge into an MCS from discrete
cells from Colorado. Very high PWATS around 1.5 inches are
forecast to remain but the more concerning feature I'm seeing
with current guidance is slower corfidi vectors which may lead
to more of a backbuilding and training threat. Very strong
agreement within ensemble qpf amounts as well of inches of
rainfall occurring. I contemplated expanding and further
extending the Flood Watch to account for this signal but wanted
to hold off and ensure any showers and storms Wednesday morning
don't disrupt the atmosphere from the potential for heavy rain
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ001>004-015-
     016-029.
CO...None.
NE...Flood Watch until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

UPDATE...KAK
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...KAK
HYDROLOGY...Trigg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
240 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-250845-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-
Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-
Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
240 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026 /340 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect today and tonight for most of the
area north of Highway 40. Additional rainfall may lead to flooding in
low lying and poor drainage area.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect most of the area until 5 AM
MT this morning. Severe storms are possible overnight with hail up
to 2 inches in diameter, 75 mph wind gusts, and a tornado or two.
Damage to life and property is possible.

Severe storms are possible again late this afternoon and during the
evening hours. The favored area for severe storms is in Eastern
Colorado, but the entire area has a chance. Large hail up to 3 inches
in diameter, wind gusts up to 80 mph, a maybe a tornado or two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Severe storms remain possible each day through at least Thursday.
The likely time for severe storms should be during the afternoon and
evening hours. Large hail, damaging winds, and maybe a tornado would
be possible with severe storms.

The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning.
Flash flooding threat will persist through the week as additional
rounds of efficient rain producing storms move through the area.
Driving through flooded roadways is dangerous.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1014 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

COZ090-240445-
Yuma County CO-
1014 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY THROUGH
1045 PM MDT...

At 1013 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Highland Center, or 10 miles southwest of Holyoke,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Yuma
County, including the following locations... Clarkville and Wauneta.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 255 and 269.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT for
northeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10220 4023 10212 4021 10264 4044 10266
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 332DEG 15KT 4049 10247

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KAK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1123 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

COZ090-KSZ001-NEZ079-240545-
Yuma County CO-Cheyenne KS-Dundy NE-
1123 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN DUNDY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH 1145 PM MDT/1245 AM CDT/...

At 1122 PM MDT/1222 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 7 miles west of Haigler, or 8 miles east of Wray, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Yuma
County in northeastern Colorado, northwestern Cheyenne County in
northwestern Kansas and southwestern Dundy Counties in southwestern
Nebraska, including the following locations... Parks, Laird, and
Beecher Island.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 233 and 243.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM MDT/600 AM
CDT/ for northeastern Colorado...northwestern Kansas...and
southwestern Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4004 10228 4023 10194 3999 10167 3976 10218
TIME...MOT...LOC 0522Z 329DEG 26KT 4005 10207

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KAK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1151 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

COZ090-KSZ001-240615-
Yuma County CO-Cheyenne KS-
1151 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THROUGH 1215 AM MDT/115 AM CDT/...

At 1151 PM MDT/1251 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 4 miles southwest of Haigler, or 14 miles southeast of
Wray, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Yuma
County in northeastern Colorado and northwestern Cheyenne Counties in
northwestern Kansas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM MDT/600 AM
CDT/ for northeastern Colorado...northwestern Kansas...and
southwestern Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 10188 3979 10173 3971 10205 3999 10212
      4001 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0551Z 333DEG 15KT 3996 10200

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KAK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1253 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

COZ091-240715-
Kit Carson County CO-
1253 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY THROUGH
115 AM MDT...

At 1253 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 5 miles south of Vona, or 7 miles southeast of Seibert,
moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Kit Carson
County.

This includes Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 391 and
435.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 10315 3945 10231 3905 10232 3904 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 0653Z 273DEG 5KT 3922 10277

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KAK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
250 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

KSZ028-240815-
Logan KS-
250 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY
THROUGH 315 AM CDT...

At 250 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Russell Springs, or 13 miles northwest of Scott State
Lake, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Logan
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3871 10122 3889 10122 3890 10088 3870 10088
TIME...MOT...LOC 0750Z 287DEG 11KT 3879 10114

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KAK