Drought in Colorado, April 14 to 30, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1027 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the area
  Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of I-70
  where warm temps, low humidity and SW winds at 20-30 mph
  gusting to 45 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Recent model guidance/trends suggest that the northern extent
of critical fire weather conditions will be located (roughly)
along the I-70 corridor. With this in mind, the Fire Weather
Watch for Tuesday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning and
expanded slightly northward in area to include the I-70
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Troughing for today has set up further south than what was
being seen yesterday as a surface low across Nebraska wound up
being further south which has inhibited the strength of the
winds for today. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph remain forecasted
but wind gusts with the weaker wind field may only support 25-30
mph gusts versus the potential for 40 mph that I was seeing
yesterday. With the warm temperatures and humidity values in the
upper single digits to low teens, despite the marginal winds
will leave the Red Flag Warning in place. Overnight, strong
700-500mb vorticity is forecast to move across the area leading
to an increase in mid level moisture. A cold front is also
forecast to move in from the north as well which should help
provide enough lift to lead to some sprinkles given the very dry
air remaining at the surface. With the front an increase in dew
points is forecast to occur as well across the north where some
stratus and perhaps some fog may be possible as well.

Tuesday, a low pressure system is forecast to develop which
will send the cold front back north as a warm front. There still
remains variability on exactly where the low will set up as the
GFS,NAM and RAP all favor a northern location but the ECMWF
ensembles and ECWMF AI keep the low further south. Similar to
what was mentioned yesterday a further south low would limit the
fire weather potential versus a further north would lead to
greater coverage of fire weather potential. I did go ahead and
issue a fire weather watch for locations south of Interstate 70
where if the northern track of the low did develop this is where
the fire weather conditions should occur at. Also did issue to
avoid confusion with any fire weather partners as surrounding
offices do and have had fire weather products out. I do have
concerns that the further south low scenario will pan out as
there has been a subtle southern shift in guidance over the past
24 hours and that has been the trend with the systems in
reality over the past 24 hours. Currently confidence is around
40- 45% for multiple hours of critical fire weather in the
forecast area so just enough to warrant the Fire Weather Watch.

Confidence has increased some in rainfall potential for
northern portions of the area since confidence is increasing in
the southern low scenario. Showers and storms are forecast to
increase in coverage Tuesday evening as a 500mb jet stream puts
northwest portions of the area in the left exit region of the
jet and the increased lift within the developing low pressure
system. A warm front should be along the Kansas/Nebraska line
where guidance is suggest around 500 j/kg of CAPE which should
be enough to lead to some thunderstorms developing. There is
slim (less than 5%) chance of severe weather mainly in the form
of damaging winds but with unstable lapse rates and very high
shear if a updraft could sustain itself then large hail may
occur as well.

Wednesday, is forecast to be a little cooler on the backside of
the low as winds are forecast to remain from the northwest;
highs for the day are forecast in the 70s. After any lingering
rain in the morning moves out drier air is again forecast to
move in from the northwest but leading to perhaps marginal at
best fire weather conditions across Yuma and Dundy counties, any
rain from Tuesday may be enough to minimize fire weather
concerns as well for at least one day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Upper-level troughing appears to be favored across the Western
United States Thursday morning. Lee cyclogenesis is favored to
take place across the North-Central High Plains through the
afternoon. Additionally, GEFS guidance suggests an 850-mb high
pressure will exist across the Southeastern United States, and
back into Mexico and Baja California. These two features look to
establish southerly to southwesterly surface flow across the
forecast region Thursday afternoon, yielding warm and dry
conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the mid-70s to
mid-80s, with relative humidities (RH) in the upper single-
digits to lower-teens. Critical fire weather conditions may be a
concern during the afternoon and evening hours, with wind gusts
forecast in the 25-40 mph range across most of the CWA. NBM
guidance suggests over a 40% chance for wind gusts to meet
criteria for critical fire weather conditions across most
locations in the forecast region, with over a 90% chance across
portions of Eastern Colorado. Further, LREF guidance suggests
over a 90% chance for RH values to meet criteria for the hazard
across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas
during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Higher end
scenarios would be associated with a stronger central low
pressure across portions of Eastern Wyoming and Montana, and the
Western Dakotas. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed
Thursday afternoon is currently highest for portions of Eastern
Colorado, around 30%.

The upper-level trough from the west looks to move across the
forecast region Friday, pushing a surface low pressure across
the Central High Plains eastward. A strong cold front is favored
to begin traversing the forecast region sometime between the
afternoon and evening hours. Critical fire weather conditions
are possible ahead of the cold front, though a slower eastward
progression of the surface low would be required. About 60% of
GEFS and EC members are in line with a slower cold front, which
could be associated with some critical fire weather conditions
across portions of West- Central Kansas and East Central
Colorado. However, the 40% of members that show a faster cold
front would mitigate the risk across this zone. A freeze, along
with some snowfall may also be experienced with this cold front.
Current forecast guidance suggests low temperatures in the
lower-20s to lower-30s across the forecast region Friday night,
with a 40-55% chance of light snow across portions of Eastern
Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas. NBM
guidance suggests a 30-45% chance for the snowfall to be
measurable (>0.1 inches) across this zone, with over a 75%
chance for sub-freezing temperatures across most of the forecast
area Friday night (nearly a 100% chance across portions of West
Kansas, far Southwest Nebraska, and Eastern Colorado). Cooler
conditions may continue into Saturday, with forecast high
temperatures in the mid-50s to mid-60s during the afternoon.
Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced Saturday
afternoon as well, though is highly in question considering the
lower temperatures. LREF guidance suggests about a 40-60% chance
for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria Saturday
afternoon across most of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado.

By Sunday morning, upper-level troughing looks to be fully off
to our east, with upper-level ridging approaching from the
Western United States. This pattern favors a return of warm and
dry conditions through the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon. Forecast high temperatures are in the low to mid-70s
and upper-70s to lower-80s Sunday and Monday respectively.
Relative humidities may drop into the low to mid-teens both
Sunday and Monday, but is currently more confined to Eastern
Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas on
Monday, as GEFS guidance indicates that the 850-mb high across
Mexico and Baja California may erode and allow a better moisture
return from the Gulf of America. Forecast wind gusts in the
25-40 mph range both days may indicate further risks for
critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Light and
variable winds will this evening and overnight will shift to
the WSW and increase to 10-15 knots during the mid-late
morning.. then back to the SW and further increase to 20-30
knots during the afternoon. Breezy SW to WSW winds will persist
through sunset. Winds are likely to shift to the NW or N at some
point Tuesday eve/night.. near the end of the 06Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. A broad
low pressure system will track eastward across the Tri-State
Area on Tue. Low confidence in wind direction at the McCook
terminal. Winds may remain variable through much of the 06Z TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Tuesday: Dangerous fire weather anticipated in southern
portions of the area Tuesday afternoon. Expect similarly
warm/dry conditions but with stronger SW winds (~20-35 mph
gusting to 45 mph), strongest south and east of Goodland. Both
the northern extent and magnitude of critical fire weather
conditions will highly depend on the evolution and track of a
deepening low pressure system in Colorado during the day Tuesday.
Recent model guidance/trends suggest that the northern extent
of breezy SW winds and critical fire weather conditions will be
located roughly along the I-70 corridor. With this in mind, the
Fire Weather Watch on Tuesday has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning and expanded slightly northward in area to include the
I-70 corridor.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM
     CDT/ Tuesday for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ253-254.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Vincent
FIRE WEATHER...Vincent

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1222 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-150630-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-
Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-
Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1222 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 /122 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the area today,
mainly along and south of Interstate 70 where warm temperatures, low
humidity and southwest winds at 20 to 30 mph gusting to 45 mph may
lead to rapid wildfire growth this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

On Thursday, warm temperatures, low humidity and breezy south to
southwest winds may, once again, lead to critical fire weather
conditions over portions of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Vincent