Heavy rainfall during the middle of March led to minor river flooding on the Cache River at Patterson.
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The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Heavy rainfall during the middle of March led to minor river flooding on the Cache River at Patterson.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 12, 5:25 AM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 625 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 156 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 -Early this morning, a small window will exist for a frost and possible freeze across north-central, northwestern, and portions of west-central Arkansas -An overall quiet weather pattern will be in place through Saturday across the state -A quick moving cold front will move across the state on Sunday bringing rain a few possible thunderstorms to the state -Early Monday and Tuesday mornings will both offer a better chance for a widespread frost and freeze across most of the state of Arkansas && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 THURSDAY (TODAY)/FRIDAY/SATURDAY: In the upper lvls, the H500 pattern will begin northwesterly over Arkansas as a positively-tilted trof axis moves over the Great Lakes region of the CONUS and is progged to move over the New England region of the CONUS. The flow pattern over Arkansas by late week will be nearly zonal over the state as the trof feature continues well east of the region. At the sfc, in the wake of the cold front which moved across the state during the day on Wednesday, tranquil weather conditions will be noted over this period. The drier and cooler airmass will be felt this morning as few locations across northern and western Arkansas may experience a frost or even freeze in a few locations. However, surface winds will shift across the state today and become established out of the south to south- southwest across the CWA which will assist in a warming trend for temperatures going into Friday and Saturday. SUNDAY: In the upper lvls, a H500 trof begins to dig over the Central Plains region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a warm front lifts northward into Mid-West and Ohio River Valley regions of the CONUS with a sfc low pressure center positioned in the vicinity of northeastern Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, southwestern Iowa, and northwestern Missouri. 00Z guidance from multiple models in the medium-range have hinted at the possibility of a broad warm sector opening over portions of central and southern Arkansas with SBCAPE values between 1,000 and 1,500 J/kg and 0-3km bulk shear around 40 knots. However, the timing of the cold front to the northwest of the state will be critical in the potential for severe weather as models have fluctuated the past few runs on timing. An afternoon/early evening event with the cold front remaining off to the northwest would favor a possible severe weather setup, but if the cold front moves through quicker than anticipated, then instability, moisture, and a lifting mechanism would be lowered significantly. Additionally, the cold front will be quick moving with the possibility of a light rain and snow mix which may be present across parts of northern, central, and eastern Arkansas as the moisture is able to be present for a few hours in wake of the cold front on Sunday night into the early morning hours on Monday, but no accumulations would be anticipated and this remains a low confidence solution given the speed of the cold front. MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: In the upper lvls, a pronounced upper level ridge will be noted over the Southwestern region of the CONUS. In response over Arkansas, northwesterly flow will once again be present. At the sfc, high pressure moves into the region behind the cold front leading to a period of quiet weather overall. The main story will be during the early morning hours on both Monday and Tuesday morning when Freeze and Frost products will likely be needed across a large portion of the state as the air mass behind the steep cold front will bring a shot of colder temperatures which will stick around on both Monday and Tuesday before temperatures begin to improve overall to near normal values on Wednesday. It is noted that any vegetation planted or left outdoors will need to be protected or moved indoors (if able) or will be likely be damaged or killed due to the cold temperatures on both Monday and Tuesday mornings. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. A period of gusty winds is expected through sunrise across TAF sites before becoming light through the day. Winds will pick up late tonight as an upper trough passes north of the state. Some LLWS associated with the aforementioned trough will be noted across northern terminals. A few high level clouds are also possible on Friday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 43 71 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 39 72 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 45 70 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 42 71 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 43 71 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 42 72 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 43 72 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 43 71 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 43 68 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 41 70 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 41 74 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 39 70 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 42 68 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && DISCUSSION...74 AVIATION...76
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Cache River experienced minor river flooding in mid-March with the Patterson gage cresting at 9.02 feet on March 15, 2026 at 5:45 PM CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, March 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1328086.