Drought in Arkansas, January 22 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1129 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 314 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

 - Rainfall will come to an end this evening and overnight, with
   dry conditions and near normal temperatures through tomorrow.

 - The next round of moisture will arrive late tomorrow into Friday
   morning and afternoon as a strong arctic airmass spills
   southward into the region, transitioning rain to a winter mix
   of sleet and freezing rain, along with snow across the northern
   communities by the evening.

 - Confidence continues to increase in a multi-day winter weather
   event with impacts extending across the entire Four State
   Region, followed by extremely cold temperatures into early
   next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Bands of scattered showers will continue to move from southwest to
northeast across the ArkLaTex through the remainder of the day, with
the system drifting east throughout, eventually confining further
rainfall to our Louisiana parishes overnight, before exiting the
region altogether by daybreak Thursday. With these continuing wet
conditions and cloud cover throughout, latest short term guidance
nudges this afternoon's highs down a bit from NBM, aiming for the
middle to upper 50s north and lower 60s southwest. Overnight lows
will range sharply from the low to middle 30s north to middle and
upper 40s along and south of the I-20 corridor. Any freezing
conditions will be short-lived and far enough behind the rain that
no wintry precip is expected tonight.

With the departure of today's rain, Thursday looks to remain mostly
dry through the daylight hours with highs in the 50s and 60s,
followed by a carbon copy of tonight's lows once again. The first
wave of moisture in the system which will be our big story looks to
arrive late Thursday overnight into Friday, with precip expected to
remain all liquid into the morning hours Friday.

Our winter weather impacts currently look to begin Friday afternoon
along and north of I-30. Bear in mind, timing remains a point of
uncertainty between forecast models, and this consensus may still
swing slightly earlier or later as new model runs come in. Friday
looks to see a transition from rain to wintry mix from the north
through the afternoon, with freezing rain and sleet spreading south
through the evening, likely reaching the the I-20 corridor sometime
around midnight Saturday, and continuing south towards daybreak.
Based on temperature projections and high confidence PoPs, wintry
precip looks to continue through the day Saturday and through
Saturday night for the vast majority of the ArkLaTex.

The latest NBM ensemble guidance continues to paint significant
wintry precip accumulations across much of the ArkLaTex, with storm
total ice accumulations of at least a quarter of an inch areawide,
and widespread values of near or exceeding half an inch to as high
as three-quarters of an inch. Exact placement of the corridor of
highest accum values continues to migrate slightly with each run,
but remains consistently over the ArkLaTex. Storm total snow
accumulations may range from 1 to 3 inches along the I-20 corridor
to as high as 4+ inches along and north of the I-30 corridor. Given
these forecast values, not to mention the potential wind impacts
adding to the number of downed tree limbs, preparing now for lengthy
power outages concurrent with very cold conditions would be
advisable.

As with the onset of the wintry precip, the timing of its conclusion
also remains uncertain, but the latest ensemble guidance trends PoPs
downward as Sunday continues, indicating a possible transition to
snow on the back side of this system as it departs, before precip
finally comes to an end by Sunday evening.

In addition to the effects of the winter weather itself, the
associated cold will pose a hazard, especially into early next week.
From 40s and 50s Friday afternoon, temps will plunge below freezing
overnight, into the teens north to just below freezing south,
climbing only into the lower 20s north to just barely above freezing
south Saturday as the wintry precip continues. Values trend colder
into Sunday as impacts continue, plunging dramatically into the
teens south and single digits north by daybreak Monday and again on
Tuesday, followed by a warming trend and quiet conditions into the
middle of next week.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

For the 22/06z TAF update...Surface observations are showing
fairly widespread IFR to LIFR conditions for most terminals late
this evening due to some low ceilings and limited visibility with
some fog that has developed. Honestly, I don't see much in the way
of improvement during the overnight hours. We will see moments
where conditions improve and then drop again but overall I am
carrying widespread IFR or lower through the night, improving
some towards the end of the period. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1259 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through at least Thursday. /53/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  57  43  50 /   0   0  20  30
MLU  48  55  43  49 /  30  10  20  20
DEQ  31  53  34  43 /   0   0  10  40
TXK  41  54  38  45 /   0   0  10  40
ELD  40  53  35  44 /   0   0  10  30
TYR  46  59  44  50 /   0   0  10  50
GGG  46  58  42  50 /   0   0  20  40
LFK  53  62  50  57 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning
     for OKZ077.

TX...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...33