NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 13, 8:46 AM AKST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 13, 8:46 AM AKST, 1 hour 14 minutes before
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
846 AM AKST Tue Jan 13 2026
.UPDATE...For the 18Z Aviation Forecast Update.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...Not a whole lot of change for this forecast
update. Generally expect MVFR dropping to IFR (if not already)
through the next 6-10 hours as a storm force front moves across
the eastern Gulf of Alaska and into SE Alaska. Main concern is the
wind forecast...with low level wind shear values increasing
significantly from 1-2 thousand feet AGL...generally from the
southeast to south at 45 to 65 kts. Generally we expect
deteriorating conditions through this evening and through the
overnight period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 613 AM AKST Tue Jan 13 2026
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
-High Wind Warnings remain in effect for majority of the panhandle
from Tuesday afternoon til Wednesday evening with gusts up to 65
mph expected as a strong system pushes inland.
-Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the upper elevations
of the Klondike Highway and near White Pass with total snow
accumulations of 12 to 20 inches through Wednesday morning.
-Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over most of SEAK Tuesday
and Tuesday night with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
-Significant increase in seas up to 20 to 30ft with southerly
swell for the eastern Gulf of Alaska and coastal panhandle with
the fast moving system Tuesday.
-Major aviation hazards expected Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning with greatly reduced flight conditions, very
strong surface winds, and low level wind shear between 50 to
70kts across the panhandle.
SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday night/
Few changes made to the inherited short term forecast as a quick
moving storm force system takes shape this Tuesday morning.
The primary impacts from the system are still expected to be the
high winds as it traverses the eastern gulf, with winds increasing
from south to north through the morning and afternoon Tuesday,
remaining elevated in many areas into Wednesday. High wind
warnings remain in effect for a majority of the panhandle Tuesday
into Wednesday for wind gusts as high as 65 mph. Strong southerly
winds will begin pushing up through N/S oriented channels later
Tuesday morning, lasting into Wednesday. Once the low center jumps
onshore somewhere between Yakutat Bay and Mt Fairweather, the
strongest inner channel winds will push through Stephens Passage
and Lynn Canal, lingering in northern Lynn through Wednesday.
Another important note is the expected wind shift in Cross Sound,
with the strongest winds and gusts expected late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday, sometime after midnight. Winds are expected
to abruptly shift from NE to SW as the southern edge of the
elongated low center slides north of Cross Sound. The speed of
this transition will likely depend upon how closely the low tracks
towards the eastern gulf coast before pushing inland.
These strong southerly and eventually southwesterly winds will
raise snow levels significantly once more, from 7 to 8000 ft in
the southern panhandle to around 4500 ft along the Icy Strait
corridor. This means that once more, communities at sea level can
expect to see primarily rain from this system. While some minor
snow accumulations remain possible for the highest portions of the
Haines Highway near the border, the upper reaches of the Klondike
are more likely to see prolonged snow as snow levels there are
only expected to reach between 2000 to 2500 ft. A winter storm
warning has been issued for the upper portions of the Klondike
Highway, particularly near White Pass, for accumulations of 12 to
20 inches of snow as well as strong winds gusting as high as 65
mph.
In terms of precipitation, the panhandle south of Kake and
Petersburg is expected to get around 1 to 1.5 inches over the next
24 hours. North of that, communities can expect from 1.5 to 2.5
inches, with locally higher amounts possible, especially along the
outer coast and for communities along the southeastern edge of
where the initial front jumps onshore. Onshore flow and showers
will continue behind the low heading into Wednesday as it pushes
inland to BC and the Yukon.
LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/
For the start of the long term period, the low affecting the
panhandle will continue to work inland into the Yukon and Interior
Alaska. With this low working inland, there is an expected jump
in the winds through the Inner channels. With this, some areas
could see some strong winds behind the low before onshore flow
returns to the area. With the onshore flow, precipitation is
expected to continue for most of the panhandle keeping the wet
weather going. Most of the precipitation with this onshore flow is
expected to remain on the lighter side compared to what we have
been seeing previously. Heading into the latter half of the week,
high pressure is expected to become the more dominant pattern for
the SE area. With this high pressure, temperatures should become
fairly stable but we could also see the development of fog across
the panhandle. The likelihood of this is greater for the southern
panhandle but could be possible farther north too. The one
exception to this will be for the Yakutat area and farther to the
west of Yakutat Bay where an atmospheric river is expected to
impact the area over towards Prince William Sound and portions of
the Anchorage Forecast Office CWA. For the Yakutat area, 24 hour
precipitation could jump up to 2- 2.5" of precipitation by Friday.
As we head into the weekend, conditions look to be fairly quiet
for the area, even more so when compared to the weather that SE
has experienced over the past month. CPC guidance for the 6 to 10
day and 8 to 14 day outlook show SE AK moving towards a near
normal for temperatures and below normal for precipitation.
AVIATION.../through 12z Wednesday/
Major aviation hazards expected through 12z Wednesday include
significant LLWS, IFR flight conditions, and very strong surface
level winds.
Predominate MVFR to VFR flight conditions across the panhandle
this morning with CIGS AoB 6000ft. Isolated areas of IFR
conditions near PAYA due to visbys due ongoing showers and at PAKT
due to persistent CIGS below 1000ft. These will be the best
flight conditions we will see through Tuesday as a potent system
pushes northward out of the Pacific towards the coastal panhandle
with predominate MVFR to IFR expected by early Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday. Conditions will deteriorate from S to N as
associated front from parent low tracks inland, starting around 15
to 17z for PAKW and PAKT, reaching PAJN by 23 to 01z, continuing
northward to Haines and Skagway around 06z this evening. In
coordination with the Alaska Aviation Weather Unit, main aviation
hazard will be widespread very strong surface winds and SE-ly LLWS
for southern and central Panhandle TAF sites increasing through
the afternoon, with maxima 00z to 09z around 70kts between 1000 to
2000ft for PASI, PAKW, PAKT. TAF sites further north should still
expect LLWS values up to 50kts, potentially higher as the low
tracks along the western coast of Baranof Island through Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning 12z with a shift to SW-ly LLWS
behind the departing front. Surface winds will increase through
the TAF period, with a rapid increase to sustained 30 to 40 kts
with gusts 50 to 60kts by 00z to 06z for TAF sites along and south
of the Icy Strait Corridor. These winds will spread northward
towards Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway by 06z this evening.
Aviation Forecast Confidence:
-Low to Medium on Ceilings and Visibilities
-High on Wind Speed, Wind Direction, LLWS
MARINE...
Inside Waters: A prefrontal moving through the area has brought
some elevated winds of 20 to 30 kt to the northern inner channels
this Tuesday morning. These are expected to diminish ahead of the
big show later today.
The next system moves in from the south Tuesday morning, with
gale force winds pushing into Clarence and southern Chatham
becoming storm force by Tuesday night. The associated front will
push northward following behind the first wave, bringing gale
force winds to strong gales northward across the rest of the inner
channels into Wednesday morning. Storm force winds will impact
parts of Cross Sound, Stephens Passage, and Lynn Canal as the
front pushes through to the north with a strong surge of southerly
winds, with the highest winds in channels exposed to southerly
flow and parts of the channels that may see some convergence, such
as around Point Arden as well as into northern Lynn Canal near
Eldred Rock as the wind funnels into the northern channels. Gusts
as the main front moves through are likely to reach above 60 kt.
For Icy Strait and Cross Sound, winds will gradually build out of
the east for most of the day, before quickly reversing out of the
west once the low jumps inland Tuesday night. Seas will begin to
build Tuesday into Tuesday night from S to N to between 6 and 10
ft at the highest.
Outside waters: Storm force winds are expected to move rather
quickly up the coastline from S to N as a storm force low travels
northward, reaching the northern coast by Tuesday night before
wind speeds begin to diminish slightly into Wednesday. The highest
speeds are expected right along the outer coastline to the east
of the low, with near gales up to strong gales further west
offshore. As the front passes, the winds will shift from a
southerly to SE-ly direction to a SW-ly direction as onshore flow
follows the system as it moves inland by Wednesday. Seas tonight
remain between 10 and 12 ft, before building from S to N beginning
with the waters off of PoW and near Haida Gwaii. Seas will build
to 25 to 32 ft along the coast as the low moves northward Tuesday
into late Tuesday night, before beginning to subside into
Wednesday. This is mostly being driven by a 25 to 30 ft S swell
with a period of around 15 sec.
HYDROLOGY...
Another fast moving and wet system is expected for Tuesday into
Tuesday night, bringing more moderate to heavy rain and strong
winds. Total rainfall amounts will be around 1 to 3 inches over
the central and southern panhandle, with gusty winds up to 65 mph
possible during the event. The heaviest rainfall rates will occur
during the morning and afternoon hours, tapering off during the
evening hours. Strongest wind gusts will follow the heaviest rain,
occurring during the late afternoon into the evening hours, then
tapering off overnight. Expect rapid rises on smaller area rivers
and streams Tuesday into Tuesday night, but we are not expecting
flooding at this time for the central and southern panhandle.
Additionally, freezing levels will be rising to 4000 to 6000 ft on
Tuesday, leading to additional snowmelt.
Additionally, moderate to heavy rains will reach the northern
panhandle by late Tuesday morning and continuing through Tuesday
night. Total rainfall amounts will be around 1.5 to 3.5 inches
with gusty winds up to 65 mph possible during the event. The
heaviest rainfall rates will occur during the afternoon and
evening hours, tapering off during the overnight hours. Strongest
wind gusts will follow the heaviest rain, occurring during the
evening and overnight hours, then tapering off Wednesday morning.
Freezing levels will be rising to 2000 to 5000 ft. Any areas that
are continuing to see drainage issues or ponding will likely see
additional pooling of water. A Flood Advisory remains in effect
for Jordan Creek in Juneau through Wednesday morning due to
snowmelt and recent rainfall. Winds and rain will continue to
diminish through the day Wednesday.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST Wednesday
for AKZ317>319.
Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 9 AM AKST Wednesday for
AKZ318.
High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Wednesday
for AKZ320>322-324-325.
High Wind Warning from noon today to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for
AKZ323-326>330-332.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031-033-036-641>644-651-661>664-
671.
Gale Warning for PKZ011-021-032-034-035-053-652-672.
&&
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
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