NWS Cheyenne, WY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 18, 10:44 AM MST, 16 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Feb 18, 10:44 AM MST, 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1044 AM MST Tue Feb 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Bitterly cold temperatures will remain entrenched over the
High Plains through Thursday, and will briefly reach as far
southwest as Laramie and Rawlins tonight.
- Bands of moderate to locally heavy snowfall are expected this
afternoon and evening, mainly along the I-80 corridor.
- Moderate to heavy mountain snowfall will continue into early
Wednesday, with another weaker system possible Thursday into
Friday. Total accumulations from this extended stormy period
will be on the order of several feet.
- Warmer, drier, and windier weather will return for the weekend
into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 445 AM MST Tue Feb 18 2025
Another active day of weather is expected across the area as the
stalled arctic frontal boundary continues to sit over the area.
Current surface analysis shows the boundary parked just west of I-25
this morning, with bitter cold wind chills between -15 and -35F to
the east, and comparatively mild temperatures in the 20s at Laramie
and Rawlins. Continued warm air advection aloft is holding the 700-
mb temperature gradient off to the northeast of the surface front,
and is also still producing on and off light snow in far eastern
Wyoming and much over the Nebraska panhandle this morning. On the
larger scale, the area is in between two vorticity maximums aloft,
with the first elongated band of 500-mb vorticity stretched along
the southeast part of the area, and another vort-max now pushing
southward into northern Wyoming. Both features are apparent on GOES
water vapor imagery this morning. A narrow region of slightly drier
mid-level air in between these two features along with negative
differential vorticity advection aloft (supporting subsidence) will
be pushing southeastward across the area over the next few hours,
giving us a very brief lull and/or reduction in rates. This will be
short-lived though, with positive vorticity advection expected to
return mid-afternoon.
The second shortwave to our north will be the main driver of today's
weather. As QG ascent returns late morning, another round of snow
will quickly develop over much of the area. Rates over most of the
High Plains will be fairly light. However, the northern shortwave
diving south today will help to push the stalled arctic frontal
boundary south and west this afternoon and evening. As a result,
models show impressively strong frontogenesis developing roughly
along the I-80 corridor. In addition, extremely steep mid-level
lapse rates are present in southeast Wyoming today, especially for
mid February. This is partially due to the core of the upper level
low aloft bringing very cold 500-mb temperatures (below the
climatological 10th percentile), while near-surface temperatures
remain fairly typical west of the boundary. Forecast 700 to 500-mb
lapse rates exceed 8 C/km this afternoon across much of the I-80
corridor in southeast Wyoming. With abundant moisture (>80% RH for
most of the troposphere), forecast soundings are showing upwards of
200 and as high as 400 J/kg of SBCAPE, which is very impressive for
this time of year. Thanks to the warm air advection continuing
around the 700-mb level, areas east of the surface front boundary
may still see some elevated instability. All together, these pieces
are setting the stage for the potential for intense banding of
snowfall this afternoon and evening, with the best potential
concentrated along the I-80 corridor from Elk Mountain to Pine
Bluffs. These narrow bands may contain 1-2+" per hour snowfall
rates, low visibility under one-quarter mile, and even the potential
for thundersnow. The main uncertainty is exactly where these narrow
bands will set up.
Overall, there is good confidence in a widespread 2-6" along the I-
80 corridor from Elk Mountain to Pine Bluffs, and 1-4" extending
eastward into the southern Nebraska panhandle. However, the lucky
(or unlucky) areas that end up underneath the narrow bands of the
most intense snowfall may be able to get 6-10" out of this. Overall
probabilities of 6+" are around 20 to 40% for any given point in
this area, which is not quite high enough to upgrade to a Winter
Storm Warning. In addition, the 6+" totals are not expected to cover
the entire or even the majority of any one zone, with the exception
of perhaps the Arlington/Elk Mountain area where the upslope
component will aid lift enough to have higher confidence of 6+" and
Warning level impacts. As a result, decided to continue the Winter
Weather Advisory for the I-80 corridor from Laramie eastward, but
elevated the messaging within the product to discuss the potential
for locally higher amounts. While HiRes models remain split on the
location of the heaviest banding, should they come into better
agreement with the 12z suite here shortly, a quick upgrade to a
Winter Storm Warning may be needed. In addition to the I-80
corridor, moist northwest flow continuing will lead to another
period of moderate to heavy snowfall in the mountains, primarily
favoring the Snowy Range once again. While today's event will
probably not be as impressive as the Sunday night event, there was
enough confidence to issue another warning. Slightly lower totals in
the Sierra Madre range appear to warrant another Advisory.
Despite the complex snow forecast, we can't forget about the ongoing
impacts from the cold temperatures. The overall temperature forecast
remains largely on track. With temperatures not expected to recover
much today, decided to extend the Cold Weather Advisories for far
eastern Wyoming another 24 hours until midday Wednesday. The Extreme
Cold Warnings still continue until Thursday morning. Tonight, the
stalled surface frontal boundary is expected to advance west of the
Laramie range, spilling through the gaps in reverse flow. Laramie
and Rawlins will probably wake up to a chilly start to Wednesday,
but the front will retreat as quickly as it advanced, leading to
highs in the upper 20s to low 30s once again on Wednesday, while
those to the east will continue to shiver. While ambient
temperatures will likely hit their minimum of this cold snap
tonight, winds are expected to be fairly light over the High Plains,
which should ease wind chills slightly. The extended light snow
period should come to an end Wednesday morning as very dry air moves
into the middle atmosphere especially over our northern and eastern
zones. The low-level remaining moist may keep some very light snow
continuing into the day Wednesday, but this won't have much support
aloft. We may even get some partial clearing of the cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 445 AM MST Tue Feb 18 2025
Medium and extended models in good agreement, at least through
next weekend, and continue to show a gradual warming trend with
the possibility of some early spring-like weather Sunday and
next Monday. Before this, however, we will have to get through
one more chilly day on Thursday with another potential for
additional snowfall.
All models show the arctic airmass gradually eroding and
retreating eastward on Thursday as 850mb temperatures increase
above -10c through the day. Expect this to be a slow process,
mainly due to weak westerly winds just off the surface west of
the Laramie Range...suggesting weak to modest WAA aloft. At the
surface, winds are forecast to remain out of the south or even
southeast across the eastern plains and for most locations along
and east of the Interstate 25 corridor. Expect some of the
arctic air to linger across the eastern plains into Thursday
afternoon, especially in areas with a decent snow pack. Decided
to trend high temperatures below guidance, especially for the
south facing ridges, such as the Cheyenne and Pine Ridge where
high temperatures may struggle to get out of the teens for much
of the day. Another slow moving upper level trough will dig
southeast into the four corners region Thursday and Thursday
night. There should be just enough forcing and WAA aloft to
justify a few bands of light snow developing and shifting
southeast through the day across mainly southeast Wyoming. The
bulk of the dynamic forcing associated with this system should
remain west and south of the forecast area, so not expecting any
impacts at time due to the short duration of the event. Low
temperatures Thursday night and Friday will remain very cold,
but should start to moderate after midnight across southeast
Wyoming as westerly winds increase slightly.
For Friday and next weekend, all models in agreement and show a
broad ridge gradually shifting eastward into the Rocky Mountain
Region, with the ridge axis flattening by late Sunday. 700mb
temperatures forecast to increase to 0c to 5c late this weekend.
Might still be dealing with some residual snowpack in spots, so
kept temperatures a few degrees lower than guidance for Friday
and Saturday and then gradually increased high temperatures
towards the NBM and GEPS/ENS 50th to 75th percentile ensemble
blend. This puts most of the high plains well into the 50s and
near 60 Sunday afternoon which seems reasonable. The only concern
in the extended, including late this weekend and early next
week, will be increasing westerly winds and the potential for
strong winds in the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming...and
possibly strong in the sub-wind prone areas as 700mb winds
increase over 50kts with good near-surface pressure gradients.
Increased winds above High Wind criteria with good support from
in-house wind models, but will continue to monitor this week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1044 AM MST Tue Feb 18 2025
Prolonged MVFR to LIFR conditions through the TAF period.
Looking at satellite and observations ceiling looking to be MVFR
between 2000-3000ft with a couple IFR cloud decks below 1000ft.
However, the visibility will range between 1/2sm to 3sm under
these bands of snow. KLAR and KRWL have some uncertainty with
the snow and lower ceilings as the front is supposed to push
into the mountains between 20z and 00z for those sites. If the
front never makes it to the mountains ceilings may not drop into
the MVFR/IFR range for KLAR and KRWL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
WYZ102.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
WYZ107-108.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST
Wednesday for WYZ115-119.
Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Wednesday for WYZ102-108-
119.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for WYZ106-
116>118.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Wednesday for WYZ110.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Wednesday for WYZ112.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Wednesday for WYZ114.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
NEZ002-003-095-096.
Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM MST Thursday for NEZ002-003-
019>021-054-055-095-096.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
NEZ019>021.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST
Wednesday for NEZ054-055.
&&
SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MM