Wildfire in Washington, June 13 to 30, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
206 AM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds Monday into Tuesday with cold front passage.

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.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and dry conditions will continue today with increasing
winds this afternoon. Lighter winds and mild temperatures for
the upcoming weekend. Warmer next week with an increasing risk
for elevated fire weather conditions from gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: An upper level low pressure system situated over
the Gulf of Alaska will deliver a series of shortwave disturbances
across the region over the next 24 to 36 hours. Their impact on our
weather will be limited by a lack of moisture and instability. The
first is push across northwest Oregon into southern Washington early
this morning. Satellite imagery shows an area of mid to upper level
clouds forming ahead of this disturbance. The NAM guidance indicates
only a modest amount of Most Unstable CAPE, or MUCAPE on the order
of up to 100 J/kg. It's enough to get weak convection going at mid
levels. The radar mosaic does show weak echoes developing with this
convection and this may be enough to produce light showers or
sprinkles, but I don't expect much in the way of appreciable
rainfall from this shower activity this morning.

The next disturbance will be on the heals of the morning shortwave
and track through in the afternoon. Surface based CAPE on the order
of 100-400 J/kg is expected over the mountains of far north-central
and northeast Washington, and also across the southeast portion of
the region from the Northeast Blue Mountains and across the southern
to central Idaho Panhandle. The CAPE off the models across the
southeast portion of the region will be dependent on how much
moisture we receive from the showers this morning: more rain would
equate to better surface based instability for the afternoon around
the Lewieston-Clarkston Valley, Pullman/Moscow, and to Clarkia and
St. Maries in the Panhandle. The 00Z NAM shows a swath of around a
quarter of an inch from convection this morning. That looks way
overdone based on latest radar observations, and I'm thinking that
its 400 J/kg of surface based CAPE for this afternoon in this area
is inflated. The HREF guidance is more on the order of 100-200 J/kg
and that seems much more reasonable. Expect convection with showers
as that second shortwave swings through this morning, but the
potential for thunderstorms is low with instability parameters
looking rather anemic. Westerly winds will again be a little breezy
today. Not looking to be as breezy as the past couple of days and
less in the way of higher gusts across the region. The diurnal push
of winds through the Cascade gaps will occur late in the afternoon
with the Wenatchee area and Waterville Plateau blowing around 15-20
mph. Winds aloft won't be as strong and we should see gusts having a
harder time getting above 25 mph. A third and weaker shortwave
disturbance moves through for tomorrow morning, and that will help
force convection near the Canadian border over north-central
Washington; however, this convection looks like it will be rather
isolated and unlikely to impact our area much.

Saturday through Sunday night: This weekend is looking fairly
benign. There is a deeper shortwave trough of lower pressure that
will round the upper level low, but it will take some time before it
reaches the Northwest. Much of the Inland Northwest this weekend
will stay dry. Temperatures will see a warming trend with highs
trending back into the 80s regionwide. Winds look to weaken further
over the weekend and will become mostly terrain driven by Sunday. A
nice weekend to enjoy outdoor activities. Just keep in mind that
temperatures will be warm and above normal for mid June. Pack the
sunscreen and stay hydrated.

Monday through Tuesday night: The shortwave trough of lower pressure
rounding the upper low over the Gulf of Alaska will push across the
Northwest early next week. Models are not exhibiting much in the way
cold air advection though. The disturbance stretches and weakens. It
will reinforce the westerly gradient and we'll see a push of winds
through the Cascade gaps. Monday will be our warmest day of the
period with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s across much of the
region. Relative humidity will bottom out in the upper teens in the
lee of the Cascades and into the Upper Columbia Basin. Fire weather
conditions will be elevated for those late afternoon into early
evening hours. This breezy and dry period will be different that
what we experienced earlier this week in the sense that temperatures
won't get as hot and relative humidity as dry. The marine layer
looks to deepen considerably by Tuesday, and will more likely
squeeze through the Cascade gaps. Cooler, marine air pushing across
into eastern Washington will result in breezier westerly winds, but
will also help to increase the relative humidity as well.

Wednesday through Friday: Medium range model guidance are
consolidating around a cold front passage for mid week with
Wednesday looking like the most likely day. The cold front doesn't
look to be particularly strong, but will be more that just an
onshore push of marine air into the Northwest. Western Washington
stands a chance to pick up light precipitation, but the front looks
to be mostly dry as it crosses the Cascades. Best chances (at around
a 30% chance) for precipitation across the Inland Northwest will be
across the northern mountains. Otherwise, all other areas will
continue to be dry with passing cloud cover. The pressure gradient
will increase with Wednesday looking to be the breeziest with wind
gusts between 20-30 mph across the exposed areas of the Columbia
Basin. The cold front will cool temperatures with highs in the upper
70s to mid 80s. /SVH

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.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Light showers will develop across southeast
Washington into the southern to central Idaho Panhandle between
12-18Z. Smoke from fires burning may result in hazy skies.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for
VFR conditions.

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Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        77  49  77  50  80  53 /  10   0   0   0  10   0
Coeur d'Alene  77  49  77  50  80  51 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        73  43  73  48  77  48 /  20  10   0   0  10   0
Lewiston       83  55  83  55  85  58 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       76  42  77  42  80  44 /  10  20  10   0  10  10
Sandpoint      76  49  77  46  79  47 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        73  52  74  54  77  56 /  20  10   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     82  48  82  50  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      80  53  81  54  85  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           79  50  81  50  85  53 /  10  20   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&