Showers and thunderstorms continued throughout the day as an upper trough lifted slowly northeast across the region. A very moist airmass with PWATs near the 99th percentile, supported heavy rainfall resulting in isolated flash flooding.
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The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms continued throughout the day as an upper trough lifted slowly northeast across the region. A very moist airmass with PWATs near the 99th percentile, supported heavy rainfall resulting in isolated flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 13, 5:49 AM CST, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 649 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 648 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend. The chances for severe thunderstorms appears limited, but strong winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. - Hot and humid conditions will develop next week, with isolated to scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms continuing. Heat indices will prevail at or above 100 late next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 A slow-moving upper low will remain our primary weather maker through Saturday. Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed the upper low centered over SW MO, but with several constituent shortwaves ahead of the main trough axis that extended south into east TX. Rainfall will remain possible just about anytime over the next couple days, but greatest coverage of rainfall will be associated with shortwave passages and daytime heating. Midlevel lapse rates around 5 C/km and PWAT around 2.25 inches will significantly limit the potential for large hail today. But daytime MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, DCAPE near 900 J/kg and deep layer shear to 35 kt will continue to present a risk for strong winds. Given the high PWAT values, flash flooding will remain a concern where storms train. Similar conditions are expected Saturday, but east of the MS River given an eastward position shift of upper trough axis. The upper trough will lift to the upper OH River Valley on Sunday, as our attention turns to a shortwave trough diving southeast from MO. This feature will likely be convectively-aided by a storm complex rounding the backside of large height ridge centered over NM. Given the complex setup of this shortwave, differences understandingly appear in the global model solutions. An any case, PWAT values will exceed 2 inches over the Midsouth on Sunday, aided by mid 70s dewpoints. It shouldn't take much kinematics to initiate showers and thunderstorms given the amount of moisture and convective instability Sunday afternoon. The midweek passage of a progressive upper trough through the Great Plains and middle to upper MS River Valley will likely bring a weak cold front into the Midsouth Wednesday night into early Thursday. Prefrontal moisture pooling under shortwave ridging will aid in daytime heat indices approaching 100 through the Midsouth Tuesday and Wednesday. Following this trough passage, the western U.S. upper ridge will expand eastward, resulting in daytime highs in the lower to mid 90s over the Midsouth late next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 This is a very messy set of TAFs with respect to precip timing. The upper low rotating about the TN Valley will encourage multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the entire TAF period. Tried to avoid having long periods of VCTS/VCSH but this setup warrants it due to the very sporadic coverage for most of the day. There are a few windows where each site may see some bursts of TSRA and/or reduced CIGs and VSBYs, prompting several PROB30s and TEMPOs. Ceilings are also quite dynamic, ranging from intermittent IFR this morning to VFR this afternoon. Winds will generally hover between southeast and south 5-10 kts with higher gusts, especially at JBR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 High humidity will accompany scattered showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week. Hot, humid and mainly dry conditions will settle in by late next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...ARS
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 119 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:04 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Reported several roads closed across Carroll County. Brewer Rd was washed out.
Webb Town Rd near Arlan Reasons Rd near Cypress Creek were impassable. Additional roads flooded included Hwy 189 and Hwy 412.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, June 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1276157, 1276158.