A positively tilted upper trough was located west of the region with a weak surface trough just east of the Blue Ridge. Sufficient wind shear and instability resulted in a few strong to severe wind gusts in the afternoon through the late evening hours.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
A positively tilted upper trough was located west of the region with a weak surface trough just east of the Blue Ridge. Sufficient wind shear and instability resulted in a few strong to severe wind gusts in the afternoon through the late evening hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 25, 2:04 PM EST, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 304 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving cold front moves into the area tonight and Friday, with an upper trough settling over the Southeast by the weekend. This will bring more unsettled conditions late this week through the weekend. Impacts from any tropical development would be Monday into Tuesday if they occur. However, uncertainity remains high regarding this. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through early Friday morning, with the highest coverage shifting to central and eastern portions of the area. There is a marginal severe threat through this evening for damaging wind gusts. A deep, positively tilted upper trough remains centered to our west with an upper low over the Great Lakes. Upper ridging continues to be anchored offshore. Deep layered SW flow prevails across the Mid- Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure is centered offshore, with a weak cold front just to the NW of the central Appalachians. We're still seeing cloud cover across the Piedmont with temps only in the upper 70s-80F. It has reached 90F in spots across SE VA/NE NC where there has been more sunshine. Showers continue to linger over the Piedmont, with a few heavier showers/tstms across south-central/SE VA where we've had stronger sfc heating. Have low confidence in convection over the Piedmont this aftn/evening given the lack of instability. While there is stronger sfc heating/instability farther east, the forcing is weaker has 500mb height falls will continue to be negligible through ~8 PM, which will likely limit coverage. Still, will keep 30-50% PoPs for most of the area through the evening. We could see an isolated strong/severe storm (mainly central/east), with the main threat being damaging wind gusts with a deep well mixed BL where sfc heating has been strongest. Could actually see some additional development over SE VA later this evening (9-11 PM) as heights finally start to fall coupled with some degree of lingering mixed- layer instability (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg). Thunder chances gradually fall overnight but showers will likely linger into early Fri AM as the surface boundary settles in from the NW. Warm and humid tonight with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - An upper low southwest of the region will bring showers, a few embedded thunderstorms, and locally heavy rain Friday and especially Saturday. - Shower chances continue on Sunday with less in the way of thunder chances. The trough to our west eventually splits as a northern stream shortwave passes by to our NE and a closed low develops over the Mid South. Meanwhile, the cold front is expected to stall over central and southern VA on Friday. Lesser coverage of showers is expected early Friday with the diurnal cycle, with scattered showers and tstms expected to redevelop along and south of the front Friday afternoon and evening. PW values are expected to be near 2.0" across SE VA/NE NC Friday and locally heavy rain is possible. The closed low is progged to slowly track NE Friday night into Saturday. Height falls are expected as the flow becomes southerly over the entire area ahead of the approaching upper low. This will allow deep- layered moisture to increase Friday night and especially Saturday, with PWs surging to 1.9-2.2" over the entire area. Scattered to numerous showers overspread the area from south to north late Friday night into Saturday morning, with numerous showers and a few tstms expected Saturday afternoon/evening. Saturday will be the wettest day of the period, with areal average rainfall of ~1" expected, with localized totals of 2"+ possible. WPC has a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Risk for the entire area on Sat to account for this. Not quite as warm Friday with highs in the lower to mid 80s, with mid to upper 70s Saturday with the showers/cloud cover. Lows Friday night and Saturday night will mainly be in the 60s. Shower chances continue Saturday night/Sunday as the closed low lingers just to our W/SW. With the low-level increasing a little bit out of the NE, expect it to be more stable on Sunday with less in the way of thunder chances (but cloudy and showery throughout the day). Highs only reach the mid-upper 70s with areal avg QPF of 0.25-0.5". WPC once again has a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Risk for the entire area on Sun. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - A unsettled pattern continues late this weekend into early next week. - Tropical Storm Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane well offshore and AL94 has a 70% chance of development through 48 hours and 90% through 7 days. The closed low will remain over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through early next week as strong high pressure builds SE across Ontario and Quebec. Further complications arise from AL94 and TS Humberto (forecast to become a major hurricane by late Sunday), how these systems interact with each other, and how much the trough interacts with AL94. While forecast guidance continues to have a large spread in terms of both track/intensity with respect to AL94, there is increasing confidence that there will be some degree of tropical development off the SE CONUS coast by Monday morning. Direct local impacts, if they do occur, would likely be from late Monday through late Tuesday. Regardless, unsettled conditions and rain chances continue early next week, with increasing onshore flow as the strong high builds SE from Canada. Depending on the track of the system, locally heavy rainfall is certainly possible across parts of the area which could lead to flooding especially with the rain already expected this weekend. By mid to late next week, the high builds farther down toward the area with fairly strong CAA expected. Breezy NE winds are likely by Wed/Wed night as the gradient between the high to our north and any low to our S/SW/SE increases. Also, drier wx should finally return by Wed or Wed night. Highs mainly in the 70s next week. Temperatures may struggle to get out of the 60s by next Thu in parts of the area. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 140 PM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail at the terminals with BKN high clouds and FEW-SCT cumulus. Haven't seen any convection yet but showers/tstms are expected to develop later this aftn (generally after 19z) and linger into the evening (and early overnight hours near PHF/ORF). There is also a low probability of a few stronger tstms at RIC/SBY. PROB30 groups have been maintained for all sites except for ECG where confidence is lowest. The most likely timing for tstms is from 21-02z at RIC/SBY and from 00-05z at PHF/ORF. Some lingering showers are possible later tonight, with some IFR/MVFR CIGs likely late tonight and toward 12z Friday. A SSW wind will occasionally gust to 20 kt this aftn, before diminishing to 5-10 kt tonight. Winds become light and somewhat variable on Friday as a weakening cold front settles into the region. CIGs gradually rise to MVFR by midday Fri and likely improve to VFR Fri aftn. Showers are likely with a few tstms possible across SE VA/NE NC Friday aftn/evening, with widespread showers likely at all of the terminals on Saturday. Occasional sub-VFR conditions are expected. A chc of showers lingers into Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Breezy southerly winds expected ahead of a cold front through late this evening. - Sub-SCA from Friday through the weekend, then elevated NE winds likely from the early to middle part of next week. A cold front to the west has nudged closer to the area since this morning, while high pressure remains anchored well the the NE. There is enough of a pressure gradient between these features to support southerly winds on either side of 15kt in the bay/rivers and 15-20kt over the coastal waters. Seas are 2-3ft and waves are 1-2ft based on latest buoy obs. Gusty southerly winds continue through late this evening as the cold front moves into Virginia. Still thinking there will be an couple of hours between 7pm and 9pm where gusts over the coastal waters touch 25kt. Seas build toward 4ft this evening with 5ft seas likely staying out near 20nm. No SCA has been issued for this evening due to the short lived nature of the 25kt wind gusts, the tendency of southerly winds to under perform, and 5ft seas likely not making within 20nm of the coast. By Friday, the front will stall over our local waters leading to weaker winds with low confidence in wind direction. High pressure builds in during the weekend bringing benign marine conditions across all waters. Unsettled marine conditions are likely from early-mid next week as Canadian high pressure slowly builds SE from the Great Lakes and a tropical system potentially forms to our south and tracks toward the waters. There is a large amount of uncertainty with respect to the track and strength of any tropical system that does develop. Regardless of any tropical development, a period of elevated NE winds appears possible from the early to middle part of next week. A Moderate rip risk remains in place for today, dropping to low on Friday. A low rip risk is expected this weekend, with a high rip current risk likely for much of next week due to swell from any offshore system. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI NEAR TERM...ERI SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI AVIATION...ERI MARINE...AC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 305 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ092-093-095>097-524-525-261915- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Southampton-Isle of Wight- Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- 305 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Upper level low pressure and a frontal boundary gradually settle over the region late Friday into the weekend bringing the potential for showers and occasional heavy rain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ025-NCZ102-VAZ098>100-261915- Maryland Beaches-Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-Accomack- Northampton- 305 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Upper level low pressure and a frontal boundary gradually settle over the region late Friday into the weekend bringing the potential for showers and occasional heavy rain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ021>024-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-509>523-261915- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Fluvanna-Prince Edward- Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia- Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick- Dinwiddie-Prince George (including Hopewell and Petersburg)- Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville- Sussex-Surry-James City-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa- Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York- 305 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The primary threat is damaging wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Upper level low pressure and a frontal boundary gradually settle over the region late Friday into the weekend bringing the potential for showers and occasional heavy rain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
411 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VAZ093-523>525-252100-
Hampton/Poquoson VA-Isle of Wight VA-Newport News VA-York VA-
411 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ISLE OF WIGHT...AND
SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES...THE CITY OF POQUOSON...THE CITY OF
HAMPTON AND THE CENTRAL CITY OF NEWPORT NEWS THROUGH 500 PM EDT...
At 411 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Smithfield, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Reduced visibility and minor flooding
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Smithfield and Rescue around 415 PM EDT.
Newport News and Christopher Newport University around 425 PM EDT.
Hampton, Northampton, and Beaconsdale around 430 PM EDT.
Langley AFB and Tabb around 440 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Fox Hill, Carrollton,
Langley View, Benns Church, Oriana, Bethel Church, Hilton Village,
Lawson, Central Hill, and Dare.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3709 7624 3687 7669 3694 7678 3700 7674
3726 7636 3725 7635
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 235DEG 29KT 3695 7667
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ButnerThe Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 34 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:21 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree fell on a UPS Truck near the intersection of Blounts Corner Road and Days Point Road, resulting in an injury.
A tree fell onto a power line on Campbell Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, September 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1295482, 1295483.