A surface cold front stationed across western Pennsylvania during the morning hours of September 25, 2025 moved eastward across the Commonwealth throughout the afternoon and evening hours. While instability remained limited due to expansive cloud coverage ahead of the frontal passage, robust lift and ample shear allowed for thunderstorm development to occur across south-central Pennsylvania with…
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The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A surface cold front stationed across western Pennsylvania during the morning hours of September 25, 2025 moved eastward across the Commonwealth throughout the afternoon and evening hours. While instability remained limited due to expansive cloud coverage ahead of the frontal passage, robust lift and ample shear allowed for thunderstorm development to occur across south-central Pennsylvania with strong-to-severe thunderstorms developing and tracking into southeastern Pennsylvania. Isolated instances of tree damage were observed in Adams and York counties from a severe thunderstorm, with all other thunderstorms remaining below severe limits as the cold front cleared central Pennsylvania during the evening hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 25, 4:05 AM EST, 10 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 505 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Wet today with severe storms possible in the east late this aftn/evening * Drying out and not as humid on Friday * Above average temperatures forecast through the end of September; however rainfall potential remains low/uncertain && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Rain is spreading across the CWA from SW to NE. Stability should remain high enough for thunder to be a very low possibility (but non-zero) for the morning and early aftn. A lull in the precip and perhaps cloud cover over the SE half of the CWA during mid- day, it comes with a potential downside. Sunshine poking through the clouds will probably bubble up deep sfc-based convection. The low level wind profiles are a little concerning with a good but not eye-popping hodograph for MDT and LNS in the late aftn and early evening. SPC has continued the MRGL risk of svr wx for Day1, but has acknowledged the possibility of an upgrade to SLGT may happen if confidence increases in clearing/heating over the area of concern. At this point, CAPEs of 1000-1200 J are possible per NAM. RAP less bullish on CAPE on the latest runs. LLJet is not really present with a gradual increase in speed to about 30KT at 8H in the time of concern. But, the curve of the vertical wind profile means that we cannot discount the possibility of spinning storms and a brief, isolated tornado. PWATs around 2" are significant, but steady storm motions should keep the risk of flash flooding low (but also non-zero). A weak cold front will move to the east of the CWA in the middle of the night, and some drying is expected. Little to no precip is expected past midnight. Clouds and a light wrly wind could thwart fog formation, so we haven't included mentions for tonight at this point. Temps get into the 50s for the NW half of the CWA, but stick in the m60s in Lancaster/Harrisburg/York. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The westerly flow across LE and passage of the upper trough should cause isolated SHRA over far nrn PA on Friday. However, most of the CWA will be dry with lower dewpoints/humidity and subsidence. GFS has a little more vigorous upper trough as it pushes thru Central PA, and generates a few aftn SHRA. But, most guidance is dry keeping vertical depth of convection shorter. Temps will be similar to Thursday despite weak cold advection. Fri night will hold a better chance for fog - if it stays clear after an initial period of clearing early in the night. Guidance does deepen an upper low over the TN valley off the remnants of the upper trough that will have passed thru PA. That could draw moisture/clouds into the state from the south later Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Newest wrinkle to the forecast for the weekend is that the upper low lingers to our west for a little while and could draw enough moisture north into southern PA to cause a few -SHRA or patches of -RA on Sat and Sunday. PoPs have increased slightly from past runs, but we've confined them to locations S of I-80 for the time being. Some uncertainty exists in regard to the possibility of tropical moisture being drawn into the state as a complicated interaction is expected between the tropical cyclone(s) off the coast and our old upper low. At this point, the cyclone(s) themselves are not expected to cause any direct impacts to Central PA. But, due to the uncertainty with the extent and position of any tropical moisture plume, very low PoPs linger into Tuesday across the far S. The forecast then gets dry for the middle of next week (high confidence) as sprawling high pressure drops down from Canada. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Our brief 3-5 hour period of relatively dry conditions overnight with just a scattering of showers will come to an end quickly during the mid to late morning through the early to mid afternoon today. A well-defined mid to upper level disturbance over the Lower Ohio Valley at 07Z will track steadily NE today with its coupled jet circulation and accompanied by fairly large swath of variable intensity light to moderate rain and embedded TSRA with brief heavy rainfall rates of 1+ inch per hour. Widespread IFR to MVFR early today will remain (or lower at times) as the steadiest and heaviest rain (lasting 4-6 hours) moves through. As the associated sfc low moves into Scent New York state late this afternoon, its southward trailing cold front will push east across the Central Mtns and Susq Valley with a potential bkn band of heavy showers and a few gusty TSRA. The timing an areal coverage of the TSRA is too uncertain, so will refrain from including VCTS in the TAFs and handle their occurrence with more targeted updates within a 2-4 hour period of their occurrence. For later tonight into Friday morning, there should be areas where the sky cover goes scattered for a few hours and allows the temp to drop quickly without much pressure gradient/wind and low level neg theta-E advection. This scenario should lead to some areas of valley fog across Ncent Pa and perhaps in the Central Valleys and Susq Valley. Improving conditions to widespread VFR by late Friday morning, as slightly drier air works into the area. Outlook... Fri...Low cigs early trending VFR by Friday afternoon. Decreasing odds for rain. Sat-Mon...Low confidence in sub-VFR cigs/rain across the southern/eastern portions of the airspace. Mainly VFR across the Central and Northern 2/3rds of PA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl AVIATION...Lambert/Martin
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 417 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-037-041-042-045-046- 260830- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming- 417 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ028-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-260830- Juniata-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry- Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 417 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy downpours are possible this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 108 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:23 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm, producing wind gusts estimated near 60 mph, knocked down a tree onto Mountain Road between Pine Tree Road and State Route 234 near Michaux State Forest.
A severe thunderstorm, producing wind gusts estimated near 60 mph, knocked down a tree onto wires in Shiloh.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, September 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1288541, 1288542.