NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 15, 8:45 AM EST, 3 hours 48 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 15, 8:45 AM EST, 3 hours 48 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
945 AM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers end later this morning as a cold front moves out of the
area. Very gusty winds and cooler temperatures are in store for
today through Wednesday night. A warming trend starts on
Thursday with a return to near or above normal temperatures
through the weekend. Otherwise, mainly dry weather is expected
through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 940 AM EDT Tuesday...
Main surface front has progressed across the area this morning
and will continue east into the Atlantic. Residual cloudiness
associated with the main upper wave will gradually clear
throughout the day. Winds are breezy this morning, but will
continue to increase into the afternoon and tonight as flow
turns northwest.
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1) Drier and gradually clearing skies.
2) Strong post-frontal winds increase today and remain gusty
through tonight.
Convection along and behind a cold front is waning across the
area early this morning as showers and isolated thunderstorms
run into more worked over/stable air. Showers will attempt to
push south this morning, but most of them will fall apart as
they reach the Blue Ridge. Residual showers will continue longer
over the higher terrain along the southern Blue Ridge and the
Greenbrier Valley. Eventually showers will just be confined to
the Greenbrier Valley off and on today in strong NW flow. At
lower elevations, an additional tenth or so of rain may fall
before showers dry up this morning, but the probability of a
quarter inch or more of rain is less than 20%. Clouds begin to
clear centrally today, then expand to areas east of the Blue
Ridge, with stratus lingering over WV.
The main story for today is the gusty WNW winds expected. A Wind
Advisory has been issued for much of the area along and west of
the Blue Ridge, where winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph
are forecast. Smyth to Summers Counties looks lightly less
gusty, so they have been left out for now in coordination with
neighboring offices. Speeds begin to decrease some tonight, so
most of the area will see the advisory dropped (but it will
still be breezy). The exception will be the southern Blue Ridge
and the northern Greenbrier Valley, where a secondary trough
will usher in another round of CAA and keep winds mixed and
gusty overnight.
The secondary surface trough moves through from NW to SE
tonight, reintensifying showers and stratus over the
mountains. Highs today will be battling cold air advection from
this first front, so not expecting a gain of more than 10
degrees above this morning's temperatures. Highs should top out
in the 40s to mid/upper 50s for the mountains, and the low to
upper 60s for the piedmont. Temperatures drop steadily and
quickly behind the secondary boundary tonight.
Expect temperatures in the low 30s to low 40s for the mountains
tonight, allowing for a changeover to light snow for our higher
peaks in the western mountains/Greenbrier Valley. Amounts should
total less than a half inch of snow through morning. The
foothills and piedmont will see overnight lows in the upper 30s
to low 40s. I have moderate confidence in overnight temperatures
and thus snow amounts, as gusty winds may keep mixing up and
temperatures higher at elevation. However this will be battling
additional CAA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Below normal temperatures Wednesday, then warming to normal
for the rest of the period.
2. Dry weather through the end of the week.
An upper trough will continue to slide to the east through
Wednesday, with the local forecast area remaining under
northwesterly flow aloft through the day. Upslope mountain
showers, mainly rain, but also some snow will be tapering off
by Wednesday morning, as drier air works its way into the area.
Surface high pressure will move in through Wednesday, and become
more established overhead, and the breezy westerly winds will
lessen throughout the day. Wednesday will be colder than normal,
850mb temps in the 10th percentile relative to climatology, so
high temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s in the
mountains, and low to mid 60s in the Piedmont. Low temperatures
Thursday morning will fall in the low to mid 30s in the
mountains, and mid to upper 30s in the Piedmont. Patchy frost
could form, especially in the mountains and valleys in the west
where temperatures are coldest. However, the growing season for
the mountain zones does not start until April 21, and so
headlines will not be issued for any frost. That being said, the
threat of frost is there, and steps to protect sensitive
vegetation should still be taken.
By Thursday and through the end of the short term forecast
period, temperatures will be on a warming trend, as the
subtropical ridge continues to build over the southeastern US,
indicated by continually increasing positive 500mb height
anomalies from ensemble guidance. Highs will be in the low 60s
in the mountains and upper 60s in the Piedmont Thursday, and
then about 10 degrees warmer on Friday. The center of the
surface high moves off the Carolina coast late in the work week,
and south to southeasterly return flow will advect moisture off
the Atlantic into the region, pushing dewpoints back up into
the 40s by Friday afternoon.
A low pressure system develops in the central US during the
middle precipitation chances in the short term forecast period
limited.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Periods of rain showers and possible thunderstorms through
the weekend, but mostly dry.
2. Chances for more showers increase Monday.
3. Above normal temperatures through the period.
A low pressure system will move towards the Midwest late in the
work week, reaching the Ohio Valley by Saturday. The cold
front looks to stretch from the northern Mid Atlantic
southwestward towards the southern Plains, as the associated
upper trough digs south and starts to suppress the subtropical
ridge. Showers and storms are possible along the majority of the
front on Saturday, though at this time, most of the
precipitation looks to stay to the north and west of the area,
until the front drops through the region late Saturday/early
Sunday. However, with the boundary in the vicinity, waves along
the front could lead to some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms throughout the weekend. Uncertainty remains in
convective development, with only little consensus among models
on frontal timing, and mostly cloudy skies which would limit
diurnal heating, and thus limiting available instability.
Therefore, have only included low probabilities for
thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
Another surface low will strengthen over the central Plains late
in the weekend, and move towards the Great Lakes, swinging a
cold front towards the area by the beginning of the work week.
While this is still far out in the forecast period, and so
details regarding timing and impacts are not well resolved, this
does look to bring increased chances for more precipitation to
the area.
Fairly strong ridging aloft will keep temperatures above normal
through the forecast period, with highs in the 70s areawide,
some locations in the VA Southside could get to the low 80s
Saturday under southwesterly flow and warm air advection.
Overnight lows will be between 10 to 20 degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT TUesday...
Very gusty WNW winds today...
A cold front was pushing through the region this morning, with
showers slowly affecting mainly the mountains and foothills.
Terminals were all VFR however with only light rain or drizzle
currently. Skies remain VFR today with clouds gradually
scattering out after 15Z outside of the mountains. Periods of
light rain continue over WV today, mainly north of BLF and LWB.
Tonight a secondary front moves through, bringing more stratus
and light rain/snow showers to the mountains. The current
forecast has conditions dropping below MVFR for BLF and LWB
after 6/06Z.
The main concern today will be strong west-northwesterly winds
which begin later this morning and last through Wednesday night.
The strongest gusts occur today, with west-northwest winds of
20 to 30+ kts possible. Speeds drop some tonight but will get
another boost behind the secondary front overnight. Confidence
in the above scenario is high.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
High pressure is expected tomorrow through Friday, before
another system over the weekend brings increasing chances for
sub-VFR conditions.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ015.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ010>014-
016>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for WVZ508.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for WVZ044-507.
&&
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...BMG/SH
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SH